Kentucky/Guineas Yankee

[Monty's Pass]

While we're still a fair way out it looks like another e/w play this month.

Selections for December.

2000 guineas
ROSALLION
I had looked at a couple of bigger priced horses but there wasn't enough certainty about trip and target to include them this time.
The selection is a solid e/w proposition who could definitely have what it takes to win. We know the target, his form looks good and he's in the right hands to have him in top form for the day.

1000 guineas
ONE LOOK
Really impressed on debut in the goffs millions and as Zach said she already has the irish entry. Hoping connections aim high with her and she can mix it at the top level.

Kentucky Oaks
LIFE TALK
Bounced back after finishing 4th at the Breeder's Cup with a grade 2 stakes win in early December. Made all that day and looked to kick on again when the 2nd came to her round the home turn. Didn't beat much aside from the 2nd who had decent form. Beaten twice by Breeder's Cup winner Just FYI but there's hope she'll have the improvement required come May to be on the premises at the business end.

Kentucky Derby
EL CAPI
Was very tempted to put Nysos in this month but while he's still with Bob and not collecting Derby points it might be best to hold off until he goes to Tim.
Really liked the way El Capi won on debut over 7F at Aqueduct. Looks to have plenty of pace but stepping up in distance doesn't look an issue either. Trainer will be keen to remain at the top table and he looks to have a nice one here with El Capi who's a decent price currently at 40's.

All odds with 365

December Yankee
Rosallion 10/1
One Look 12/1
Life Talk 16/1
El Capi 40/1


Good luck all

[parimutuel]

Definitely, be some good ones to come out of them surely. What did you make of Mage's brother Dornoch last weekend?

Better late than never MP I've backed him and have been following him for the Mage connection and think he's improving nicely, showed some fighting quality too in that last race.
Good trainer in Danny Gargan, looks a solid each way bet. Not sure now but he was a 10/1 favourite with one of the U.S. bookies so surprised 33/1 is still available with 365.

[Zachx02]

As there hasn't been much activity here, I thought I'd post about this as it could be included in one, White Abbario for the dubai world cup at 8s looks a mighty big price and I think I recall dutrow saying it could be on the agenda alongside the saudi cup

[Monty's Pass]

As there hasn't been much activity here, I thought I'd post about this as it could be included in one, White Abbario for the dubai world cup at 8s looks a mighty big price and I think I recall dutrow saying it could be on the agenda alongside the saudi cup

Yeah it looks like he's being prepared for Saudi so providing he comes out of that race well enough it makes perfect sense to take in Dubai before coming back to the States. I think 8's is very fair as if he beats Derma and Co with as much authority as he did in the classic then he'd be a short price fav for Dubai, I wouldn't even be put off if he ran well in defeat tbh.

Good shout, will likely put him in for this month

I probably started this thread a month or two too early but things should pick up a bit soon with plenty to come out over the next 6 weeks or so.

[Monty's Pass]

Better late than never MP I've backed him and have been following him for the Mage connection and think he's improving nicely, showed some fighting quality too in that last race.
Good trainer in Danny Gargan, looks a solid each way bet. Not sure now but he was a 10/1 favourite with one of the U.S. bookies so surprised 33/1 is still available with 365.

That is a nice price for a horse so well related, he did battle back bravely which is always good to see. Seems the 2nd is a nice horse too and I'd be keen to see him out again as he didn't exactly have a dream trip.

We've seen a fair few nice prospects so far and things will heat up as some start to face off against eachother and the points races become deeper.

I attempt to rank a top 5 every month or so, be interested to hear how you see it as far as the Derby is concerned.

[parimutuel]

As it stands at the moment Monty's Pass l think the top five in the betting is about right. Fierceness, Muth, Nysos, Dornoch and Locked. Nysos & Muth having the extra risk factor. However that might all change by the end of the month.......

Bob Baffert has until the 29th Jan to transfer any Kentucky Derby/Oaks horses to another trainer.

So obviously hoping Muth & Nysos transfer but who knows and previously it hasn't worked out too well anyway even though IMO Nysos is the most exciting prospect out of all them.

[Monty's Pass]

As it stands at the moment Monty's Pass l think the top five in the betting is about right. Fierceness, Muth, Nysos, Dornoch and Locked. Nysos & Muth having the extra risk factor. However that might all change by the end of the month.......

Bob Baffert has until the 29th Jan to transfer any Kentucky Derby/Oaks horses to another trainer.

So obviously hoping Muth & Nysos transfer but who knows and previously it hasn't worked out too well anyway even though IMO Nysos is the most exciting prospect out of all them.

Nysos has looked very good I agree, could be into single figure price if and when the switch of yards is confirmed.

Track Phantom another with some nice wins under his belt and runs again this weekend. I don't fancy him for the KD currently but if he keeps impressing he'd enter calculations at around 25/1

Keen to see El Capi entered up again, hasn't worked for a few weeks but trainer said he'd be brought along slowly after his maiden so hopefully nothing is amiss. Had a bit of a form boost with Conquest Warrior winning the other week and seemed to suprise them how well he did it and although there was speed bias that day his performance was backed up on the clock. He's an e/w play at 40's especially when he starts working again.

[Monty's Pass]

This month's picks:

Dubai World Cup
White Abarrio
As selections are thin on the ground and the 2000 guineas doesn't appeal as much it was suggested to include White Abario in this month's and he's a standout 8/1 with Skybet which is a great price for a horse who won the Classic and has already defeated the general fav/2nd fav in Derma Sotagake. Intentions are to run in the Saudi Cup and if he comes out of that race well he'd surely take in this race before heading back to the States and a win in the Saudi Cup would make 8/1 look like a gift more so than it already is Imo.

1000 Guineas
Fallen Angel
Had a great 2 year old season culminating in a win in the Moyglare, looked very good that day even with the fav failing to fire. Connections very excited with her and at a general 8/1 she's not the worst price in the world for what she's achieved already. I think it's a race that if it was run five different times you could have five different winners but she's well worth having onside as unlike some of her rivals she's shown consistency and looks to have the scope to keep on improving throughout her 3 year old season. Think connections planned to go straight their with her so not likely to see her again until May.

Kentucky Oaks
Candied
Case made for her in the November yankee. She should be out on 10th Feb for her seasonal debut and a strong performance would send her to favourtism so wanted to get her in one last time. Out of the Breeder's Cup runners she's the one I like the most at this stage and she's still an ok price around 12's.

Kentucky Derby
Fierceness
Extremely impressive winner of the Juvenile back in November and with his seasonal debut being on the 3rd Feb in the Holy Bull against beatable horses this was the time to get him in at around 10/1 which i still think is a very fair price and could more than half if he shows anything like what he did at the Breeder's Cup. Acid test will come further down the line when he meets other genuine contenders but won't be meeting horses like Locked until the KD so he has the opportunity to go there unbeaten since the BC and he certainly looks good enough to do that. Seems like Baffert is going to shun Churchill with at least some of his nice prospects which only adds to Fierceness' chances and potential price cut before he's even raced again woth deadline being Monday 29th.

I think he's a better horse than connections fav of last year Forte and I'm very excited to see him out again on Saturday along with seeing some other cracking races this weekend state side.

January Yankee
WHITE ABARRIO 8/1
FALLEN ANGEL 8/1
CANDIED 12/1
FIERCENESS 10/1

All prices with Skybet

[parimutuel]

This month's picks:

Dubai World Cup
White Abarrio
As selections are thin on the ground and the 2000 guineas doesn't appeal as much it was suggested to include White Abario in this month's and he's a standout 8/1 with Skybet which is a great price for a horse who won the Classic and has already defeated the general fav/2nd fav in Derma Sotagake. Intentions are to run in the Saudi Cup and if he comes out of that race well he'd surely take in this race before heading back to the States and a win in the Saudi Cup would make 8/1 look like a gift more so than it already is Imo.

1000 Guineas
Fallen Angel
Had a great 2 year old season culminating in a win in the Moyglare, looked very good that day even with the fav failing to fire. Connections very excited with her and at a general 8/1 she's not the worst price in the world for what she's achieved already. I think it's a race that if it was run five different times you could have five different winners but she's well worth having onside as unlike some of her rivals she's shown consistency and looks to have the scope to keep on improving throughout her 3 year old season. Think connections planned to go straight their with her so not likely to see her again until May.

Kentucky Oaks
Candied
Case made for her in the November yankee. She should be out on 10th Feb for her seasonal debut and a strong performance would send her to favourtism so wanted to get her in one last time. Out of the Breeder's Cup runners she's the one I like the most at this stage and she's still an ok price around 12's.

Kentucky Derby
Fierceness
Extremely impressive winner of the Juvenile back in November and with his seasonal debut being on the 3rd Feb in the Holy Bull against beatable horses this was the time to get him in at around 10/1 which i still think is a very fair price and could more than half if he shows anything like what he did at the Breeder's Cup. Acid test will come further down the line when he meets other genuine contenders but won't be meeting horses like Locked until the KD so he has the opportunity to go there unbeaten since the BC and he certainly looks good enough to do that. Seems like Baffert is going to shun Churchill with at least some of his nice prospects which only adds to Fierceness' chances and potential price cut before he's even raced again woth deadline being Monday 29th.

I think he's a better horse than connections fav of last year Forte and I'm very excited to see him out again on Saturday along with seeing some other cracking races this weekend state side.

January Yankee
WHITE ABARRIO 8/1
FALLEN ANGEL 8/1
CANDIED 12/1
FIERCENESS 10/1

All prices with Skybet

Cheers MP I like the Dubai WC angle

[parimutuel]

Forever Young

In what still seems a very open Kentucky Derby, thought I'd throw this one's hat into the ring.
He received the highest Japanese dirt rating ever for a 2YO. Not raced this year yet but is favourite for the Saudi Derby (no points) on Saturday (not much time for the Yankee )
Then, if all goes to plan, on to the UAE Derby at the end of March.
He's 20/1 with b365.
Hoping he's a superstar as the race really needs it let alone the Triple Crown.
FWIW I also have him as a single.

[Monty's Pass]

Forever Young

In what still seems a very open Kentucky Derby, thought I'd throw this one's hat into the ring.
He received the highest Japanese dirt rating ever for a 2YO. Not raced this year yet but is favourite for the Saudi Derby (no points) on Saturday (not much time for the Yankee )
Then, if all goes to plan, on to the UAE Derby at the end of March.
He's 20/1 with b365.
Hoping he's a superstar as the race really needs it let alone the Triple Crown.
FWIW I also have him as a single.

Great pick parimutuel he could be the one to get Japan a KD and more! Will include in the yankee and have it up in the next couple days

[Monty's Pass]

This month's selections:

Kentucky Oaks
Tarifa
Recent grade 2 winner Tairfa makes it into this month's yankee, the Brad Cox trainee improved to win nicely at the weekend ahead of main rival Intricate who was having her first run of the year and should come on plenty herself next time out. Tarifa had a ground saving trip from an inside draw under Falvien Prat and showed a nice turn of foot to kick on after the bend and put the race to bed in the slop. Godolphin won last year's Kentucky Oaks with Pretty mischievous who won the same race as Tarifa just has and also took in the Fair Ground Oaks before heading to Kentucky and I expect Tarifa will follow the same route running on March 23rd before heading to Kentucky with hopefully a great chance.

The Kentucky Oaks picture tends to change often but I'd be hopeful she'll give a good account of herself at the least come May.

Will be keeping an eye on Intricate too who will be a danger if building on her first run of the year.

Kentucky Derby
Forever Young
Put up by parimutuel the budding Japanese superstar runs in the Saudi Derby this Saturday and while no qualifying points are up for grabs a win would point him towards the UAE Derby which Derma Sotagake (6th in Kentucky Derby) won by 5 lengths last year and is effectively a win and your in race for the KD. Unbeaten in three starts as a 2yr old on his way to receiving a monster rating he faces a stern test in Saudi but the trainer sounds bullish and Saturday will hopefully just be a stepping stone on his way to lining up in Kentucky in May.

Only other race of note this weekend as far as the KD is concerned is the Rebel stakes where Timberlake (4th in BC Juvenile) is favourite but would have to be hugely impressive to even enter KD calculations.

1000 Guineas
Opera Singer
Obvious claims at the head of the market but still an ok price at 5/1. Impressive last time out in France, made all and the win never looked in doubt. Providing she trains on this could be a fruitful season ahead for her and being by Justify improvement is all but guaranteed. Potential for the Guineas/Oaks double is plain to see and with comments about returning to France for the Arc connections must be relishing the season ahead.

The Derby
Ocean Of Dreams
Bit of a punt here on my part but with City of Troy odds on for the 2000 and not much else inspiring me from the market I thought I'd look at the Derby for a price.
Leopardstown maiden winner over a mile last October he looked to be really getting going when crossing the line 6 lengths to the good on heavy ground. Heffernan was suitably impressed with his debut and thought he'd come on plenty for the run. Has the Irish Derby entry and could see him in the trial at Leopardstown in May. Available at 33's for the Derby would be a decent e/w Imo considering how many of Aidan's are likely to line up.

February Yankee
TARIFA 12/1
FOREVER YOUNG 20/1
OPERA SINGER 5/1
OCEAN OF DREAMS 20/1

All prices with 365

Good luck all.

[parimutuel]

Great write up Monty's Pass I'm on!

The KY Derby picture should be a little clearer next month

[Zachx02]

I'm on too, played a cheeky SP fav and forever young KY Derby too, will have be in a nice position with sierra leone and him on side provided he wins

[Zachx02]

Christ that was close, was off the bridle like all of the race after the awful break