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Breeder’s Cup

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  • Nice turn around

    Is it a pointless exercise if you’re beating SP though? I know plenty of people who had some and more of those mentioned at massive prices compared to their SP

    Cogburn 5/1 > 4/5
    Thorpedo Anna 8/1 > 2/5
    Rebels Romance 14/1 > 19/10
    Cinderellas Dream 16/1 > 13/5
    Notable Speech 6/1 > 23/10

    Run4Home being one of those.

    Regardless of the outcome.
    They were all bets that beat the SP considerably.
    And doing so will in the long run be profitable.

    Of those that didn’t come in.
    A few hard luck stories in there too.

    I actually think it’s one of the best meetings of the year to find value, if you know the patterns of races, trainers and what to look for, as the flat season progresses.

    That said, I’ll certainly be far less confident about a 5f turf sprint out there next season

    Comment


    • Originally posted by jono View Post
      Nice turn around

      Is it a pointless exercise if you’re beating SP though? I know plenty of people who had some and more of those mentioned at massive prices compared to their SP

      Cogburn 5/1 > 4/5
      Thorpedo Anna 8/1 > 2/5
      Rebels Romance 14/1 > 19/10
      Cinderellas Dream 16/1 > 13/5
      Notable Speech 6/1 > 23/10

      Run4Home being one of those.

      Regardless of the outcome.
      They were all bets that beat the SP considerably.
      And doing so will in the long run be profitable.

      Of those that didn’t come in.
      A few hard luck stories in there too.

      I actually think it’s one of the best meetings of the year to find value, if you know the patterns of races, trainers and what to look for, as the flat season progresses.

      That said, I’ll certainly be far less confident about a 5f turf sprint out there next season
      Was just about to come on and say something similar.

      Personally had a poor Breeders Cup, that said I mostly copy bets from here as it's not something I put a serious amount of time into, but had the following:

      Cogburn 3/1 > EVS
      Ecoro Sieg 11/2 > 5/2
      Thought Process 16/1 > 5/1
      East Avenue 5/2 > 2/1
      Society 11/2 > 7/2
      Shahryar 16/1 > 15/2
      Forever Young 13/2 > 4/1
      Notable Speech 4/1 > 13/8

      I'd be lying if I wasn't sitting there after Notable Speech lost thinking 'you can shove your value up your arse' but that's the game and a bit of time to reflect, this could have all gone the other way, especially seeing how well fancied some of them were.

      Only winners I had was a small cover beat on Lake Victoria plus a couple of shorties I backed on the day, but nothing to write home about.

      A few I had as E/W bets so these returned bits and pieces, but far from ideal.

      On the plus side, I didn't fall into the City Of Troy trap. I had my doubts, though kept them to myself, as I wasn't overly confident either way.

      Comment

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