Melbourne Cup

[FinalFurlong91]

True, but he seems to be a talking horse everywhere - his last two runs merit talking about.

If you held the view at 7/1 that the handicapper down under wouldn't have a full grip on his ability then that price was with the risk IMO.

I've got a sneaky suspicion that if the big V get's beat they'll be lots of people piling in to the big V fanboys - which is all very fair given how much we've gone on!

Agree, nothing is a stone cold cert and in this race particularly, but he's got a very good chance. Do you think he's a worthy fav FF91?

I don't have anywhere near 20's btw, but happy nonetheless to have taken bigger than now.

Do I think he's a worthy fav?

I definitely don't think he's a value price at the moment

He may have 3 or 4 lb in hand off 114, but I don't see him being thrown in

He's not shown enough to me to say he's a 120+ stayer

I'd probably have him joint fav or 2nd fav with Gold Trip, I imagine that'll be the case in Australian markets on the day

Can definitely see him running well if he gets a clean run

Hopefully he wins for you guys, id happily buy a 10/1+ e/w slip off someone

Be interesting to see the draw you wouldn't want him drawn very low or very high. Those tend to be the toughest places to win from. Very low can often be a coffin box if you don't get out the stalls.

[HoldenTheReins]

Anywhere between 5-14 would be a good draw

[Lobos]

Anywhere between 5-14 would be a good draw

The draw is of little significance as per stats but there are certain boxes that have thrown up more winners.

[HoldenTheReins]

The draw is of little significance as per stats but there are certain boxes that have thrown up more winners.

Yep, but will still want him not wide or inside.

[Lobos]

IS THERE A DRAW BIAS IN THE MELBOURNE CUP?
There really isn’t a barrier bias in the Melbourne Cup and as you can see in the past 20 years, horses have won from the inside (Prince Of Penzance – barrier 1) and out wide (Vow And Declare and Shocking – barrier 21). A long-standing hoodoo was broken in 2021 with Verry Elleegant becoming the first horse to win from barrier 18. Barrier 15 has also only had one success (1973) while barriers 2, 7 and 20 have only produced two winners each. Barrier 5 has been the most successful gate in the Melbourne Cup with eight winners, followed by barrier 11 (7 wins) and 10 and 14 with six wins apiece. Historically, drawing anywhere from barrier 5 to 14 should give your horse the best chance.


Barrier 5 , 10, 11 or 14 for Big 'V' then.

Clearly no real draw bias though.

Any of the above 4 boxes and he'll get shorter than Phar Lap

[Lobos]

Personally believe Vauban is comfortably a 120+ Flat horse. His Hurdles rating (using the 40lb ratio) would suggest so. He demolished a decent Handicap field at Royal Ascot beating a horse who then went on to win the Ebor which is a notoriously difficult race to win. He easily won a Group race next when not fully wound up. He goes in any ground and will clearly appreciate the MC distance. He can be ridden different ways. He's got one of the best jockeys in the world in top. He's been specifically trained for the race by a trainer who knows how to prepare one for it and has had near misses in the past. Willie has openly said this is his his best chance yet of winning the race. He has settled in great since arriving and did an electric bit of work the other day which had all the locals talking. I'm trying hard to find a negative. There isn't one .

[Lobos]

Yep, but will still want him not wide or inside.

That'll be Ryan's problem not the horse. Hes clever enough to find a way out......or in. I have a suspicion though that he'll be given a plum draw.

[FinalFurlong91]

Personally believe Vauban is comfortably a 120+ Flat horse. His Hurdles rating (using the 40lb ratio) would suggest so. He demolished a decent Handicap field at Royal Ascot beating a horse who then went on to win the Ebor which is a notoriously difficult race to win. He easily won a Group race next when not fully wound up. He goes in any ground and will clearly appreciate the MC distance. He can be ridden different ways. He's got one of the best jockeys in the world in top. He's been specifically trained for the race by a trainer who knows how to prepare one for it and has had near misses in the past. Willie has openly said this is his his best chance yet of winning the race. He has settled in great since arriving and did an electric bit of work the other day which had all the locals talking. I'm trying hard to find a negative. There isn't one .

That'd make him the best staying flat horse in Europe

He's not shown that kind of form yet

Sounds like you should have a win today and ascot gold cup bet if its priced up anywhere if that's your opinion

[Lobos]

That'd make him the best staying flat horse in Europe

He's not shown that kind of form yet

Sounds like you should have a win today and ascot gold cup bet if its priced up anywhere if that's your opinion

I do believe he is and will prove it next year. Already on for Ascot GC.

[FinalFurlong91]

I do believe he is and will prove it next year. Already on for Ascot GC.

With kyprios looking regressive and the leger winner continous unlikely to stay 2m4f he could be the one

It is a race the 4yos have dominated recently so I quite like the Kings horse desert hero

Him and vauban are my shortlist

[Tickety Boo]

Guys when is the draw made for the race?

[charlie]

Guys when is the draw made for the race?

4th November, not sure what time

[Tickety Boo]

Thanks Charlie much appreciated

[archie]

4th November, not sure what time

17.30 in Melbourne so 6.30 gmt.

[Lobos]

If he gets 5, 10, 11 or 14.......

I'm going in for one last time. Been too long since my last chip on him.