Melbourne Cup

[ComplyOrDie]

Is a NH rating of 160 a true reflection of Vauban's ability given he races far too keenly and doesn't always jump hurdles fluently?
Given he's flat bred wouldn't switching back to the flat with no obstacles unlock more of his upside?

This is a big point for me, because Willie has alluded to this himself, which is one of the reasons he reverted back to the flat in the first place. He's like a mid to high 160's hurdler IF he could jump hurdles better, which means in turn, using the '45' rule that archie mentioned he's actually a 120+ flat horse, running off 114 in the Melbourne Cup.

He's on the improve, and his form from Ascot is solid enough.

[charlie]

This is a big point for me, because Willie has alluded to this himself, which is one of the reasons he reverted back to the flat in the first place. He's like a mid to high 160's hurdler IF he could jump hurdles better, which means in turn, using the '45' rule that archie mentioned he's actually a 120+ flat horse, running off 114 in the Melbourne Cup.

He's on the improve, and his form from Ascot is solid enough.

Exactly and it's a point lost on most. He'd be a 165 rated hurdler IMO if he jumped well and settled better. Had he been given the time to prove his ability on the flat I'm in little doubt he'd already be a 120+ flat horse because thats what he was bred to do.

[Lobos]

Soulcombe is clear 2nd fav . If we take his UK handicap mark before going to Australia and what they have been allotted in the MC, then Vauban should be comfortably brushing him aside.

[archie]

Doesn't that take overlook the chunks of improvement Willie finds in some of these French recruits?
Isn't the mockery Vauban made of his 101 mark at Ascot and his subsequent easy win off 114 supporting evidence that he's improved significantly more than 14lbs?
Why is he done improving? He's not 7 or 8, he's 5 so there's every chance he gets better/stronger and not regressing.
Is a NH rating of 160 a true reflection of Vauban's ability given he races far too keenly and doesn't always jump hurdles fluently?
Given he's flat bred wouldn't switching back to the flat with no obstacles unlock more of his upside?

Reasonable questions so I'll try to give reasonable answers.

The overall response is that there is no fixed rule for how an individual horse will improve and when it will stop improving. All the arguments and counter arguments put forward about Vauban are based on opinion rather than fact because we simply don't have enough facts to be definite. Had Vauban run on the flat as a 4yo it would be much clearer so we tend to side with our prejudices.

Individual responses would be:
1. Sure, Willie finds improvement in some French recruits. Likewise, he doesn't with others and they quietly exit stage left.
2. The handicapper thought his Ascot run was worth 114 and I wouldn't be arguing with that. I'd echo the earlier comment that you can't consider the listed race as 'being won off 114' because it was weight for age. Going by the direct form of the horses that he beat, you'd say that he didn't run to 114, mainly because he didn't have to. This view is endorsed by both RPRs and the handicapper.
3. He may be still improving but, again, different horses improve at different times and rates and assuming that he has another stone in the tank may just be wishful thinking. My own instinct is than early starting French breds are mature earlier that their UK and Irish counterparts which is why I'm uncertain how much more there will be to come.
4. I'm happy enough to take the handicapper's hurdle rating of 160. Last season, he ran 4 times behind State Man and each time they were separated by between 3 and 6 lengths with Vauban's RPR between 156 and 161. I think that's a large enough sample size to give 160 the thumbs up and, again, it's an open question about how much more he could find.
5. I think it's far too early to say that he's flat bred given how new Galiway is to the stallion ranks. Certainly, Willie has been busy at the store sales buying more of his progeny which would be an indication of how he's thinking.

Overall, there may well be 4 or 5lb extra in him in November but in a race like this that is not certain to be enough. It's mainly on price grounds that I think it's a poor bet at 4/1. Of course, most UK and Irish punters will latch on to him because it's local evidence. Maybe you have to have been there on race day to fully understand but it's a very patriotic/nationalistic occasion and most of the punters on course and around Australia will be going with the local favourites and doing so on the tote with all that implies. Even the ante post prices are quite a bit longer over there so it's not hard to assume that the tote odds on the day will be even better if you're a Vauban backer.

[Lobos]

Perhaps they missed a trick with Constitution Hill....... should have ran him in the MC !

[archie]

Adjusted RPRs make interesting reading.

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/297/flemington/2023-11-07/849168/at-a-glance

[charlie]

Reasonable questions so I'll try to give reasonable answers.

The overall response is that there is no fixed rule for how an individual horse will improve and when it will stop improving. All the arguments and counter arguments put forward about Vauban are based on opinion rather than fact because we simply don't have enough facts to be definite. Had Vauban run on the flat as a 4yo it would be much clearer so we tend to side with our prejudices.

Individual responses would be:
1. Sure, Willie finds improvement in some French recruits. Likewise, he doesn't with others and they quietly exit stage left.
2. The handicapper thought his Ascot run was worth 114 and I wouldn't be arguing with that. I'd echo the earlier comment that you can't consider the listed race as 'being won off 114' because it was weight for age. Going by the direct form of the horses that he beat, you'd say that he didn't run to 114, mainly because he didn't have to. This view is endorsed by both RPRs and the handicapper.
3. He may be still improving but, again, different horses improve at different times and rates and assuming that he has another stone in the tank may just be wishful thinking. My own instinct is than early starting French breds are mature earlier that their UK and Irish counterparts which is why I'm uncertain how much more there will be to come.
4. I'm happy enough to take the handicapper's hurdle rating of 160. Last season, he ran 4 times behind State Man and each time they were separated by between 3 and 6 lengths with Vauban's RPR between 156 and 161. I think that's a large enough sample size to give 160 the thumbs up and, again, it's an open question about how much more he could find.
5. I think it's far too early to say that he's flat bred given how new Galiway is to the stallion ranks. Certainly, Willie has been busy at the store sales buying more of his progeny which would be an indication of how he's thinking.

Overall, there may well be 4 or 5lb extra in him in November but in a race like this that is not certain to be enough. It's mainly on price grounds that I think it's a poor bet at 4/1. Of course, most UK and Irish punters will latch on to him because it's local evidence. Maybe you have to have been there on race day to fully understand but it's a very patriotic/nationalistic occasion and most of the punters on course and around Australia will be going with the local favourites and doing so on the tote with all that implies. Even the ante post prices are quite a bit longer over there so it's not hard to assume that the tote odds on the day will be even better if you're a Vauban backer.

I am glad you think they're reasonable

For me its fairly obvious now that V is one of the French horses Willie has improved massively. The extent of that improvement is open to interpretation because we have limited information, but, his margin of victory at Ascot, winning over a trip too short LTO and thumping a subsequent Ebor winner would all point towards him being on an upward trajectory for a trainer who has targeted the race since last year.

[Lobos]

Hills now into 3/1 today for Big 'V'

[Lobos]

4/5 year olds have by far the best record in the Melbourne Cup winning 89 races between them (45/44).

The last 3 year old to win the race was 82 years ago !

[Benjy23]

Tiger Moth was a half length away from being a 3yo winner, when finishing 2nd three years back

And Deauville Legend was a decent 4th last year as a 3yo.

Wouldn't expect that 3yo stat to last much longer to be honest.

The 3yos are generally over bet is probably fair but I feel Vauban has taken that worry away for every other runner this year

[Lobos]

82 years is quite some stat though....not many longer than that throughout World racing I doubt.

Has Vauban been backed that much ?

[Benjy23]

82 years is quite some stat though....not many longer than that throughout World racing I doubt.
Has Vauban been backed that much ?

I've just had a look at past winners rather than using my seemingly limited memory and the stat is actually complete nonsense.

Cross Counter won it as a 3yo in 2018.

It must be something to do with how horses ages are considered in Australia compared to over here.

Chuck that stat in the bin mate. As far as European runners are concerned anyway.

[Benjy23]

Spent less than 10 minutes here so apologies for any errors but record of 3yos in last 5 renewals:

2018 - 2 runners - 1st and 5th
2019 - 2 runners - 3rd and 13th
2020 - 2 runners - 2nd and 8th
2021 - 1 runner - 14th
2022 - 2 runners - 4th and 12th

Hard to be too negative on the 3 year olds!

[Lobos]

Ok 1 winner since 1941 then

You are clutching

[Benjy23]

I've not actually backed any 3yos yet. So don't need to clutch at anything.

You're also missing that Vauban is a 6yo on the stats you're using