Melbourne Cup

[Lobos]

Using UK and Irish ratings, Vauban is 114. He gets 3lb from Broome (116), gives 2lb to West Wind Blows (112) and gives 8lb to Okita Soushi (109). The adjusted RPRs will be interesting.

Thrown in he is not. He will likely start bigger than 4/1 on the Australian market on the day.

Hes plenty better than 114 Archie. Did that doing handsprings and after so few flat runs. Loads more potential and I suspect plenty more in the tank. He'll be Willie's Cup horse next season. He's all class. Frankie can't do the ride on Absurde so I'm expecting him to be offered the ride on our boy. If that happens the Aussies won't be able to resist that combination and he'll go off very short indeed. 4/1 is still a gift. Double him up in a Free bet with El Fabiolo.

[Lobos]

It's the biggest lay in the market at a bad price if he runs, so someone seems sure he won't it seems.

Ryan can't do the weight on him so perhaps AOB and co will just rely on Broome ??

[archie]

Vauban is still 6/1 in Australia.

[Lobos]

2nd fav Soulcombe runs this weekend

[Lobos]

Vauban is still 6/1 in Australia.

Have a few Dollars on Archie

[charlie]

Using UK and Irish ratings, Vauban is 114. He gets 3lb from Broome (116), gives 2lb to West Wind Blows (112) and gives 8lb to Okita Soushi (109). The adjusted RPRs will be interesting.

Thrown in he is not. He will likely start bigger than 4/1 on the Australian market on the day.

'Thrown in' is probably an overstatement, but I think Lobos' point (and mine) is we don't know how good Vauban is on the level yet. Since joining Willie we've seen him twice. Once making a mockery of a mark of 101 and then winning a race over a trip too short with ease off 114. It's highly unlikely that a mark of 114 is his ceiling isn't it? The examples you list are perfect example of horses we know a great deal about. Broome is 7 and has 36 starts to his name. He's an admiral 116 yardstick who will pick up a Group 2 or 3 on a going day, but there's no upward movement in him. West Wind Blows has 11 starts to his name with 5 runs this year all off a mark of 111 and he's now rated 112. Very consistent animal, but we know his level. Can we bet the Aussie markets here?

[archie]

Can we bet the Aussie markets here?

You'll be able to do the TAB (tote) on the day. I have friends and family in Australia but it's a flat handicap ffs!

Just my view but I think that Vauban's improvement on the flat is over-rated because of the time between his flat runs in France and then at Ascot. That sort of improvement is perfectly natural between 3 and 5 and is confirmed by the NH rating of 160. Using the 45lb formula makes his flat rating 115 so just about right. If he'd been on the flat in that period rather than jumping I'd be fairly confident that he'd have improved by roughly the same amount and don't really expect him to have that much more in him. This far out, 4/1 is really very poor and complete lemming fodder.

If I was to have a bet, which I certainly wouldn't be doing until at least the next forfeit stage, I'd be looking at a horse who has been mapped for this all year, is already qualified, has a light weight, is in the right stable and, crucially, is shorter in Australia than over here. Step forward Goldman.

[FinalFurlong91]

114 is a big ask for Vauban

You'd think to be winning a Melbourne Cup you need an absolute minimum of 6lb in hand

So he will need to run to 120 to have any chance of winning

Which would make him the second best 2 miler in behind kyprios, none of his form so far suggests hes that good

He got a very easy lead at Royal ascot and won a mickey mouse group 3 after

I mean I hope he wins as so many on the forum are on him

but il be looking to find some e/w value on the day myself

I could be tempted into a win the melbourne cup/ascot gold cup double if any firms have it at the right price

he is going to need to put in a group 1 performance to win

[charlie]

You'll be able to do the TAB (tote) on the day. I have friends and family in Australia but it's a flat handicap ffs!

Just my view but I think that Vauban's improvement on the flat is over-rated because of the time between his flat runs in France and then at Ascot. That sort of improvement is perfectly natural between 3 and 5 and is confirmed by the NH rating of 160. Using the 45lb formula makes his flat rating 115 so just about right. If he'd been on the flat in that period rather than jumping I'd be fairly confident that he'd have improved by roughly the same amount and don't really expect him to have that much more in him. This far out, 4/1 is really very poor and complete lemming fodder.

If I was to have a bet, which I certainly wouldn't be doing until at least the next forfeit stage, I'd be looking at a horse who has been mapped for this all year, is already qualified, has a light weight, is in the right stable and, crucially, is shorter in Australia than over here. Step forward Goldman.

This is a thought provoking post Archie, I like it. Im struggling to get my head around the time point and it's hard to articulate why because we're not talking about an exact science here, but I'll do my best! Vauban was only 3 in France and once he got his act together won a listed race running to an RPR of 101. Thats pretty good if thats the level you want to start with when judging how much he's improved and whether or not its over-rated. If I understand you correctly you're saying that Vauban running to around a 114 level now on the flat is the level he'd be running to had he not gone over hurdles? (natural progression). Playing devils advocate I would ask you the following questions:

Doesn't that take overlook the chunks of improvement Willie finds in some of these French recruits?
Isn't the mockery Vauban made of his 101 mark at Ascot and his subsequent easy win off 114 supporting evidence that he's improved significantly more than 14lbs?
Why is he done improving? He's not 7 or 8, he's 5 so there's every chance he gets better/stronger and not regressing.
Is a NH rating of 160 a true reflection of Vauban's ability given he races far too keenly and doesn't always jump hurdles fluently?
Given he's flat bred wouldn't switching back to the flat with no obstacles unlock more of his upside?

[Benjy23]

Semantics maybe but it's the second time I've read it and in two separate posts. I don't think he's 'won off 114'. That's not what that means to me anyway.

[Lobos]

He just wins doesn't he. Next year's Ascot Gold Cup winner so he's certainly got plenty in hand in this race. He's finished just 15 lengths off the best Hurdler I've ever seen so he must have a fabulous chance.
His lofty hurdles rating would suggest there's loads more improvement in his current flat rating.

[Lobos]

Tiny bit of 4's left but pretty much 7/2 across boards now. Huge Momentum behind the big 'V' now.

[Lobos]

Max Dynamite was rated 136 over hurdles prior to his narrow MC defeat off 8st 9lbs........

Vauban carries the same weight in Melbourne but is rated 24lbs higher than MD over Hurdles.

You do the maths.

It gets better all the time doesn't it ??

[BookieBasher]

Tiny bit of 4's left but pretty much 7/2 across boards now. Huge Momentum behind the big 'V' now.

365 pushed him back out to 9/2 if you fancy topping up

[Lobos]

365 pushed him back out to 9/2 if you fancy topping up

Waiting for the Hills Epic boost again to get the 7's