Champions Day - Ascot - Saturday 17th October 2020

[Saxon Warrior]

Connections have confirmed that MISHRIFF will miss the Arc this year, and he’d for the 10F Champion Stakes at Ascot.

They have got in with the announcement before Godolphin, and Ghaiyyath.

Now if he goes to Ascot and not Paris, Ghaiyyath will be taking on the top 3yo middle-distance colt, who loves 10F and soft ground.

That would be a new test for Ghaiyyath, who has been beating older horses well, plus a non-staying 3yo Kameko, and Rose of Kildare.

[Quevega]

Connections have confirmed that MISHRIFF will miss the Arc this year, and he’d for the 10F Champion Stakes at Ascot.

They have got in with the announcement before Godolphin, and Ghaiyyath.

Now if he goes to Ascot and not Paris, Ghaiyyath will be taking on the top 3yo middle-distance colt, who loves 10F and soft ground.

That would be a new test for Ghaiyyath, who has been beating older horses well, plus a non-staying 3yo Kameko, and Rose of Kildare.

Not a lot of depth to Mishriff's form though is there ?
Ghaiyyath would smash him to pieces.
I reckon.

[Saxon Warrior]

Not a lot of depth to Mishriff's form though is there ?
Ghaiyyath would smash him to pieces.
I reckon.

There’s not been too much cross-fertilisation of form between middle-distance 3yos and older horses this season due to the late start of the classics.

Nothing in the Eclipse, Nothing in the King George & QE, Kameko in the Internationai isn’t a lot to go on.

It does look like the 3yo mid-trip colts are probably led by Mishriff, if not Serpentine, and I wouldn’t take short odds on Ghaiyyath beating Mishriff on soft ground at Ascot., as most of his best form is on Good or faster.

Serpentine may yet lay claim to the 3yo colt mid-distance crown in the Grand Prix De Paris in 2 weeks, that race will be far more competitive than the Prix Neil usually is though.

[Saxon Warrior]

I see that Pinatubo has been given the Group 1 entries for British Champions Day in the 6F Sprint and the 1M QEII.

Charlie Appleby mentioned this week that Ghaiyyath, Pinatubo and Space Blues were their big 3 chances for the day, from the entries they have made and no doubt Plan A is the QEII for Pinatubo if he comes through the Prix Du Moulin over 8F, well at the weekend.

The betting seems a bit topsy-turvy between these two races.

Moulin biggest odds
Pinatubo - Evens
Siskin- 8/1
Circus Maximus - 8/1

QEII biggest odds
Siskin - 8/1
Circus Maximus - 10/1
Pinatubo - 20/1

There's probably a thought that Pinatubo is a spent force with the 20/1 prices, but a decent win at the weekend over Siskin, Circus Maximus & Romanised plus the French contenders and he is going to be 2nd fav to Palace Pier, at maybe around 4/1 for Ascot.

Siskin's trainer has already stated that he thinks by British Champions Day that the ground will be too soft for Siskin so he is taking the Moulin option now and maybe the Breeders Cup could enter the equation after that.

Pinatubo's defeat by Palace Pier by a length was after he went from an unpromising position in last place (that he held through the race and into the straight), into first place 1F out, where those efforts told, and he was gunned down late by PP.

It may be that the effort and speed Pinatubo expended to come through the field told late on that day, or maybe he just didn't stay the last furlong well enough.

PP is clearly the likeliest winner at Ascot again, but it looks odd that Pinatubo at 20/1 (each potential, with a chance of winning?) is twice the price of his Irish opponents there but Even Money to beat them in the Moulin field this weekend.

Go figure?

[jack1092]

Good points Saxon! Might take a dabble!

[Saxon Warrior]

Price Update on the Moulin this morning.

Some bookmakers have added prices, a couple have taken them down for the Moulin.

Current biggest prices are:

Pinatubo - Evens
Circus Maximus - 5/1
Romanised - 7/1
Siskin - 15/2
Persian King - 10/1
Victor Ludorum - 10/1
Ancient Spirit - 33/1
7 runners

[parimutuel]

Thanks SW for the heads up

No matter how many times I watch his race at the Curragh, I am still amazed at that final furlong, just incredible.

[jack1092]

Price Update on the Moulin this morning.

Some bookmakers have added prices, a couple have taken them down for the Moulin.

Current biggest prices are:

Pinatubo - Evens
Siskin - 9/2
Romanised - 7/1
Circus Maximus - 15/2
Persian King - 10/1
Victor Ludorum - 10/1
Ancient Spirit - 33/1
7 runners

You've Circus and Siskin mixed up there!

[Saxon Warrior]

You've Circus and Siskin mixed up there!

Just noticed on oddschecker and changed it above, then saw your post.

Thanks Jack

[Saxon Warrior]

Pinatubo, reluctant at the gates, and Doyle admitted he tucked the horse in behind Siskin, which unfortunately for him gave Circus Maximus and Persian King a big lead.

Persian King picked up well 3F out to leave CM, and Pinatubo really turned on the turbo to come out of the pack & leave the rest 6L or more behind as he flew off in pursuit of the King.

To me that knocks on the head the 1M or sprinting trip for Champions Day, it’s going to be Palace Pier and Pinatubo round 2 in the QEII, (Andre Fabre says Perisian King for Champion Stakes or the Arc, back up in trip).

This has the potential to be a cracker, hopefully on decent ground, to give everyone the chance to perform to their best.

[ryanh97]

Pinatubo, reluctant at the gates, and Doyle admitted he tucked the horse in behind Siskin, which unfortunately for him gave Circus Maximus and Persian King a big lead.

Persian King picked up well 3F out to leave CM, and Pinatubo really turned on the turbo to come out of the pack & leave them all 6L or more behind as he flew off in pursuit of the King.

To me that knocks on the head the 1M or sprinting trip for Champions Day, it’s going to be Palace Pier and Pinatubo round 2 in the QEII, (Andre Fabre says Perisian King for Champion Stakes or the Arc, back up in trip).

This has the potential to be a cracker, hopefully on decent ground, to give everyone the chance to perform to their best.

Agree SW, should be a great one. Managed to get 2pts on Pinatubo at 22s with Betfair just before the race

[Saxon Warrior]

Agree SW, should be a great one. Managed to get 2pts on Pinatubo at 22s with Betfair just before the race

God stuff, I’m on at 20/1 each way as reported on 3rd September in this thread.

It just seemed a nuts price.

Persian King going Arc or Champions Stakes, so it leaves Pinatubo to go clear second fav behind Palace Pier.

Godolphin really need their tactics right for that one, but he ought to finish in the 3, with a better than 20/1 chance to win.

[jack1092]

Pinatubo, reluctant at the gates, and Doyle admitted he tucked the horse in behind Siskin, which unfortunately for him gave Circus Maximus and Persian King a big lead.

Persian King picked up well 3F out to leave CM, and Pinatubo really turned on the turbo to come out of the pack & leave the rest 6L or more behind as he flew off in pursuit of the King.

To me that knocks on the head the 1M or sprinting trip for Champions Day, it’s going to be Palace Pier and Pinatubo round 2 in the QEII, (Andre Fabre says Perisian King for Champion Stakes or the Arc, back up in trip).

This has the potential to be a cracker, hopefully on decent ground, to give everyone the chance to perform to their best.

While i jumped on 20-1 as the price seemed wrong, i wouldn't say Palace Pier has much to worry about with Pinatubo!


Also, a minor worry is what Appleby said...



Appleby told www.godolphin.com: “Pinatubo has run another solid race and seen the mile out.

“We will see how he comes out of the race and discuss it with connections, but I think the plan will be to come back to Longchamp for the Prix de la Foret and then hopefully on to the Breeders’ Cup Mile.”

[Istabraq]

As exciting as Pinatubo was as a 2yo you just have to accept his generation is weak.
His Dewhurst win earned him a rating of 128 as a 2yo, AOB sent over 4 of his battalion to take on Pinatubo and those four are 0-11 in 2020, I haven't gone back any further but I'm not convinced his previous wins will show any real depth either.
All that said it's good have one to get excited about and he did manage to win a G1 as a 3yo...

[Saxon Warrior]

Yes, it looks like they may be preferring 4 weeks to the Foret and 5 weeks to the Breeders Cup as a plan, with only one crack at being a Group 1 Miler winner.

Rather than 6 weeks to the QE2 and 3 weeks to the Breeders Cup and two goes at a Group 1 mile win.

I may be cashing out half of my bet at a small profit shortly.

Could end up cashing all out this week if further news emerges to confirm that plan.