Travers Stakes (August)

[Saxon Warrior]

Uncle Chuck is quite low on the Derby qualifying table (#22) so assume that Baffert wanted to send him to the Travers as the points on offer were better (100-40-20-10) versus the Shared Belief stakes (50-20-10-5). Plus he had Cezanne and Thousand Words for the Shared Belief.

Watched UC's last race back and he's got an amazing stride length, he's a big horse so may take some time to get going against Tiz The Law who I can see sitting 3 or 4th off the pace and then using his burst of pace at the homestretch. The slight unknown for me will be the extra furlong as the race is run at 1m2f - could well play into others hands if Tiz comes back to the field with 200m to go. Fascinating race ahead.

Yes,

I had looked at the table a couple of weeks ago, and thought that if Uncle Chuck was rated that highly he could either win the Shared belief or come first or second in the Travers, and qualify comfortably - which made it the trainers choice for which way to go.

I dont know Baffert's style and flair for risk taking, but I took it as a confident sign that putting his shortest price Kentucky Derby horse up against the favourite for the KD, rather than go elsewhere, was a positive for Uncle Chuck followers.

[Saxon Warrior]

I like to check out the subsequent form of horses in races that my potential betting targets have ran in.

A strange anomaly may have occurred in Tiz The Law’s 2020 form, which looking at all three video looks really impressive.

Tiz The Law has in those three races:-
2 Group 1 wins, after a seasonal debut win in a Group 3.
Combined winning margins 11 lengths, tends to stalk the leaders and move clear late in races, to finish strong.

Looking at the Racing Post form for those three races, including the Belmont Stakes win.

14 horses that Tiz The Law beat in those races, have run since, a total of 20 times.
Of those 20 attempts the number that have won is 0.
The truth is stranger than fiction.

I’m going to side with Uncle Chuck given the horse he beat by 4&1/2 lengths in his 2nd (of 2) runs, Thousand Words, came out and won the Shared Belief Stakes last weekend, (a Kentucky Derby Trial with ‘Derby’ points available, and the race that Uncle Chuck switched from to come to the Travers).

[Craigy14]

Paddy Power offering 8/11 boosted to 4/5 on Uncle Chuck without Tiz.

[Kevloaf]

Paddy Power offering 8/11 boosted to 4/5 on Uncle Chuck without Tiz.

Oh that'll do as a cover then.

Potential for two wins, cover the stake if Uncle Chuck wins.

Anything but those and it's a bad race, but that's fine.

[Craigy14]

Oh that'll do as a cover then.

Potential for two wins, cover the stake if Uncle Chuck wins.

Anything but those and it's a bad race, but that's fine.

Exactly my thought process mate.

Paddy P look like only ones offering it too.

[thorne365]

sky 10/11
lads 4/6 top 2 as well

[parimutuel]

Some Saturday Saratoga fun

Race 5 American Gentlemen 8/1 3 places 0.5 pt ew

[parimutuel]

Race 6 American Monarch win
Hidden Enemy ew

[parimutuel]

Race 7

Letruska win 11/2

Letruska & Bellafina combo forecast

[Salubrious Chin]

Some performance from Gamine in the previous race at Saratoga, now 4/6 with 365 for the Kentucky Oaks. Nabbed some of the 6/4 with 888Sport, although slight chance of re-routing to the Derby if others don't live up to the hype. Which leads onto the next race with Uncle Chuck and Tiz The Law.

Laid 15pts off from the single at 4/5 as too risky to have that amount running on. Come on the Festival multiple bets!

[Kevloaf]

Well done SC!

Tiz The Law absolutely different league there

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Great stuff, thanks SC

[7barrows]

Different gravy

[Salubrious Chin]

Wow did not expect such an easy victory. What a class horse.

[samcow]

great pick