Day 5 - Saturday - Royal Ascot 2020

[Priceiskey]

Week stats after Day 4:
Total Stake - 226.4 pts
Total Return - 229.4 pts

Profit/loss - +3 pts

Total Open - 18.5 pts



After being over 50 pts down after 2 days, and still -25 points before today(Friday). I'm very pleased to be in profit now for the week,despite it being a puny amount!


After a 4-day grind there is no chance I'll throw that all away so the 18.5 pts I already have are below, and I will only add 3 points worth to it to ensure I have not had a losing week no matter what



12:40 - Count D'Orsay 20/1 (5pl) and Golden Apollo 22/1 (6pl)

13:15 - *More Beautiful 14/1 (3pl) and Campagnelle 13/2 (4pl)

13:50 - Admiral Nelson 11/4

14:25 - Love Locket 22/1 (3pl) 16/1 (4pl)

15:00 - Not had a bet yet, I thought I'd backed Palace Pier already at a decent each way price ante post but I haven't and now it's only 7 runners I'll just leave this race now because I'm a bit annoyed at myself.

15:35 - One Master 7/1 (3pl)

16:10 - Angel Alexander 20/1 (6pl)

16:40 - Should have backed Who Dares Wins when FM put it up. Like Nate The Great but I won't be watching the race so won't back anything.





Best of luck everyone

Good work. Free rolling into day 5.

[Viking Flagship]

I've just been through the Silver Wokingham and I REALLY like APLOMB. If the ground remains easy into Saturday then combined with stall 2 it would be enough to put me off Swindler, as much as he would otherwise look to have a cracking chance. There is not a lot of depth to this race with a lot of exposed handicappers and, like the favourite, Aplomb is a progressive 4yo and he made a really nice return at Newmarket over 5f on quick ground. The cherry on the cake is the middle draw - so if the bias does switch in the next couple of days then it's no bother. Mr Haggas looks to be in nice form too.

I've just had one of my bigger bets of the week.

Having made some nice each way returns this week in big handicaps from Shelir and Baltic Baron I'm going to put up another one at a big price for the same yard in the Wokingham - ARECIBO. It's hard to be certain what this horse's ideal trip and conditions are having raced principally over 5f on quick ground since coming over from France, yet in France he had plenty of form with cut in the ground and won at up to 6 1/2f. However given the changeable conditions (Fri & Sat currently look warm and dry) that apparent versatility is a tick in the box and this is a horse who could really come into his own this season. Clearly highly rated by connections starting out his season in the Palace House when running pretty well but not enjoying the dip, the trainer is on record as saying the horse is better than he's shown so far, hopefully will have grown up a little this season and could go a long way. He will need to have matured as he seemed like a bit of a monkey last year often travelling well but not always finding a great deal - albeit running some tidy races such as the 4th (beaten only a length) behind Oxted in the Portland and a close 8th in the Ayr Gold Cup. Finally, as with Shelir earlier in the week who was the mount of Tudhope despite Firmament looking to be first string, this time he's on Arecibo when you would have to assume he had the option of riding Summerghand who is significantly shorter in the market and would look to have an excellent chance. Only a 5yo with his first season in Britain now under his belt I'm willing to take a chance on him at the prices. As low as 14s with Coral, I've taken some of Sky's 33s with 6 places.

Hugh Flagship

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Hugh Flagship

Great stuff VF, he’s yet to have a winner or a place this week so is certainly due 1 (or 2)

[kinloch brae]

....Aplomb and Arecibo for Hugh Taylor, he must be reading this forum.

Has he had a winner this week?

Doesn't seem to explain why the horse is 0/6 (placed just once) at 6f since coming from France. He was fourth over 5.5f but that was on good to firm on a much easier track.

[Viking Flagship]

I've just been through the Silver Wokingham and I REALLY like APLOMB. If the ground remains easy into Saturday then combined with stall 2 it would be enough to put me off Swindler, as much as he would otherwise look to have a cracking chance. There is not a lot of depth to this race with a lot of exposed handicappers and, like the favourite, Aplomb is a progressive 4yo and he made a really nice return at Newmarket over 5f on quick ground. The cherry on the cake is the middle draw - so if the bias does switch in the next couple of days then it's no bother. Mr Haggas looks to be in nice form too.

I've just had one of my bigger bets of the week.

Having made some nice each way returns this week in big handicaps from Shelir and Baltic Baron I'm going to put up another one at a big price for the same yard in the Wokingham - ARECIBO. It's hard to be certain what this horse's ideal trip and conditions are having raced principally over 5f on quick ground since coming over from France, yet in France he had plenty of form with cut in the ground and won at up to 6 1/2f. However given the changeable conditions (Fri & Sat currently look warm and dry) that apparent versatility is a tick in the box and this is a horse who could really come into his own this season. Clearly highly rated by connections starting out his season in the Palace House when running pretty well but not enjoying the dip, the trainer is on record as saying the horse is better than he's shown so far, hopefully will have grown up a little this season and could go a long way. He will need to have matured as he seemed like a bit of a monkey last year often travelling well but not always finding a great deal - albeit running some tidy races such as the 4th (beaten only a length) behind Oxted in the Portland and a close 8th in the Ayr Gold Cup. Finally, as with Shelir earlier in the week who was the mount of Tudhope despite Firmament looking to be first string, this time he's on Arecibo when you would have to assume he had the option of riding Summerghand who is significantly shorter in the market and would look to have an excellent chance. Only a 5yo with his first season in Britain now under his belt I'm willing to take a chance on him at the prices. As low as 14s with Coral, I've taken some of Sky's 33s with 6 places.

Great stuff VF, he’s yet to have a winner or a place this week so is certainly due 1 (or 2)

Haha thanks RC but it means nowt if they flop. I suppose it’s nice to know you’re thinking along the same lines as someone who’s proven to know what they’re talking about though.

[Quevega]

Treading water for first two days, then fucking rubbish the last two.
Need a good day or I'll be annoyed.

Open wide 1ptew 25-1 6 places
Blue Mist 2pts 9-1

Sacred 2pts 6-1
More Beautiful 55pts win from double with one Kev mentioned today

Creative force 2pts 7 -1
Dark lion 1pt 12-1

Run wild 2pts 11/2

Wichita 48pts win from double with Santiago


Mr lupton 1ptew 33-1
Gulliver 1ptew 25 5
Jacks point 1pt 20-1 & 1pt 25-1
Arecibo 1ptew 22/1

Who dares wins 4pt 7/2


No bet in the Jubilee yet, but Khaadem is most likely up to press.

I do like Jacks Point, and may put more money on him as from stall 1 he may take some stopping having shown very good pace the last 2 starts over 7f, and being unpenalised for his good run on Tuesday.
I'd like the jockey to go to the far rail and just see if the ground is to his advantage, but they may all come up the middle again.
Might even be fresh ground on the far side rail tomorrow, if they move the rail a bit, and if it is he should definitely do that.

Good luck everyone.

edit - added Dirty Rascal 44-1 1ptew in the first.
Low draw - fresh ground angle, tom ward seems decent, his last 2 runs were actually very good, he has decent early pace and drops a furlong in trip. Just needs to be fit first time out. And run faster than the rest.

[Priceiskey]

Hugh Flagship

Never seen VF and H Taylor in the same room.

[Stormy Antarctic]

Looks like the Queen Mary might be a burn up? Any fancies for horses coming from behind?

[Quevega]

Looks like the Queen Mary might be a burn up? Any fancies for horses coming from behind?

Think Ryan Moore may hold up the Fav, my worry is he leaves too much to do.
And is left on the wrong side.

[Anay Turge]

If Aplomb is successful in the first, there is a boost to Tinto in the 16:10 - both already have Ascot form from last October. May be worth keeping an eye on.

Dazzling Dan also running in the 16:10, who has finished 4th to Tinto - Aplomb @ Ascot. Playing a couple of doubles here just incase Aplomb hacks up

As mentioned yesterday, Imperial force placing adds merit to Creative Force’s chances today. Will be adding to my e/w double with a win single.

Good Luck All

[Faugheen_Machine]

Admiral Nelson is available at 33/1 for the 2000G. He's bred to be a miler and what he did on debut was really impressive over minimum trip. If he improves on that, he'll be difficult to beat today and I expect he'll be ante post favorite by 2pm (providing they get them off on time!)!

1pt Admiral Nelson 33/1 2021 2000G

[Faugheen_Machine]

Tuesday went well, Wednesday was a disaster, Thursday ok and Friday superb.

I'm out for most of today but backed the following

12.40 Nahaarr8/1 ew, Louie De Palm 18/1 ew, Bernado O'Reilly 66/1 ew
1.15 Campanelle 7/1
1.50 Creative Force 10/1
2.25 Quadrilateral 11/4
3.00 Palace Pier 10/1 and 11/2ew
3.35 Khaddem 8/1 ew
4.10 Lethal Lunch 33/1 ew and 25/1 ew
4.40 Who Dares Wins 7/2 - big rule 4 though.

Good luck all. Won, lose or draw it's been an excellent week and great to see the forum so busy in the summer months.

[Priceiskey]

With a dry night and day ahead the ground should be perfect.
Let’s go out with a bang.
12:40 EMBOUR 20/1 (main bet) also Open wide 25/1 and some peanuts at Vintage Brut 66/1
1:15 MORE BEAUTIFUL (for Andy holding/Kev double)
1:50 CREATIVE FORCE (drifting badly) for 98/1 double with THE LIR JET
2:25 QUADRILATERAL 11/4 Doubled with SCEPTICAL 7/2
3:00 POSITIVE 20/1
3:35 SCEPTICAL win bet just under 5/1 boosted
4:10 ARECIBO 33/1 (15p R4)
Nothing in the last.
Good luck everyone.

[Run4Home]

12:40; No selection
1:15; Campanelle 15/2 ew & More Beautiful 9/4
1:50; Creative Force 10/1 ew & Admiral Nelson 15/2
2:25; Quad 11/4
3:00; Pinatubo 2/1 & Palace Pier 5/1 ew
3:35; Hello Youmzain 15/2
4:10; Biesla 9/1 ew & Mr Lupton 33/1 ew
4:40 Who Dares Wins 3/1 (R4)

[charlie]

Sceptical & Sharing the big two today, especially the former.

12:40 - Aplomb @ 6.2
13:15 - Campanelle @ 7/1 EW & Sands Of Time @ 25/1 EW
13:50 - Igotatext @ 90's
14:25 - Sharing @ 7/1 EW
15:00 - Palace Pier @ 4/1 & Positive @ 20/1 EW
15:35 - Sceptical @ 4/1 & Sands Of Mali @ 25's & 20/1 EW
16:10 - Highland Dress @ 10/1 EW & Arecibo @ 20/1 EW
16:40 - Itsafreebee @ 48's & Fun Mac @ 19's

http://2ptsw.in/ (not mine but cases below)

SHARING
I think the American raider SHARING probably has the best form in the Coronation Stakes, but she’s 13/2. She won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last autumn and beat all the European raiders who boasted some of the best of their domestic form, so her form looks strong. She’s match fit after extending her winning sequence to four over at Churchill Downs in May, so has had a better prep than most and arrives fresh. Softer ground is the big unknown but I think that’s more than compensated for in her price, and Oisin Murphy is a classy jockey booking who will give her every chance. There are plenty of big chances with the home team but I’m simply betting the American form is better.

SANDS OF MALI
The time is right for SANDS OF MALI to bounce back to his Group One-winning best over the same course and distance of his finest hour in the Champions Sprint. He’s been labeled a mudlark but has plenty of form on faster ground, including when 2nd in the Commonwealth Cup over this track and trip, so He’s just too big a price at 22/1 to find his best form which deserted him last season. Trainer Richard Fahey says he continues to be the best work horse in his yard with nothing able to keep up with him on the gallops and he’s been primed for this. This really isn’t a deep renewal and the favourite has the profile of a horse that could romp home or flop completely now upped to this class. I don’t think the draw is relevant with only 10 runners and I’d hope Sands Of Mali makes all.

HIGHLAND DRESS
But I like profile and price of the improving Shamardal four-year-old, HIGHLAND DRESS, who’s seeking a hatrick of wins since switching to Archie Watson from Irish trainer John Oxx earlier this season.

His main drawback is the lack of experience in a handicap such as this. But he travels like it should suit and has been by given a kind draw in stall 17.

Highland Dress put in a fine performance 15 days ago on his comeback run at Newmarket over 6f and whilst the ground was quick that day, you’d be plenty encouraged that he will be versatile given his pedigree.