Day 5 - Saturday - Royal Ascot 2020

[Priceiskey]

Very narrow weight band in the silver wokingham and nothing stands out too much as being well handicapped so gone with two so far that have good big field handicap form on the track.

Blue Mist 2pt 9-1 (still available with B365)
Open Wide 1ptew 25-1 6places (give him another chance)

Open wide looks to have a nice chance but if he blows out I’d give him a serious chance in the stewards cup again. That’s the race I’d plot if I trained him. Looked at Blue Mist but thought the 6f would be too sharp for him.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Who Dares Wins it's probably going be my biggest bet if the week in the last race of the week.

I've had 4pts at 7/2 so far. My only bet on Saturday to date.

[Outlaw]

How much of a problem do you think the 2 draw might be?

I'm no expert and Out do won from stall 1 a few years back, just seemingly mid to high draw would be preferable at the current meeting on the straight course seemingly. He tends to get held up and a few around him have similar pace profiles so be interesting if Atzeni may try to switch more central to be produced late.

[Saxon Warrior]

Backed Nahaar 14/1 E/W in the Wokingham

I’m keen on him too COD, as a back up to Swindler, in the Silver Wokingham, and drawn 21, so one on each side of the draw could be a plan.
Just about to check his collateral form and videos.

[Viking Flagship]

Who Dares Wins it's probably going be my biggest bet if the week in the last race of the week.

I've had 4pts at 7/2 so far. My only bet on Saturday to date.

You might be onto something there FM. It isn’t a race I’d usually pay much attention to but I’ve just been having a look and there is no depth at all, looks a very poor race. Nate The Great is an obviously interesting horse but it seems an odd move stepping out to this distance - although one way of reading that is they may see it as a soft way of beating a few 100+ rated horses off level weights to get a big hike and into the Ebor. Problem with the current market is the likely chunky Rule 4 as you’d have to think the fav will be pulled if lining up in the Gold Cup tomorrow - in which case the 7/2 about WDW effectively becomes about 5/2. He would definitely set the standard though and shouldn’t have much trouble beating the majority of that field.

[YoungHustler]

Right, day 5 bets all done but I'm sure they'll be some chopping and changing...

12.40 - Swindler / Embour / Open Wide / Hyperfocus / Flavius Titus
13.15 - Campanelle
13.50 - Creative Force
14.25 - Quadrilateral
15.00 - no bet
15.35 - Hello Youmzain
16.10 - Bielsa / Summerghand / Danzeno / Gulliver / Angel Alexander / Bella Fever

I love the big handicaps and have had to add some high drawn horses. I'm hoping some of the Wokingham horses will shorten in price and depending on if the bias continues, I will look to lay off a couple in each race. These big sprints are normally contested by the same horses who seem to take it in turns to win so I've got all the main ones that I like. I can't believe I already have 6 in the Wokingham and that doesn't include my cliff horse, Hey Jonesy! The last horse I backed Bella Fever is the only one that could be much better than a handicapper and if I had backed her first, I would not have backed some of the others. My main interest in her stems from her beating of Final Song in Meydan who then ran very well in the 1000 guineas for 7f. Final Song runs today in the Jersey so will be interesting to see how she gets on.

[ComplyOrDie]

12:40 - Nahaar 14/1 E/W (5 places), Pass The Vino 20/1 E/W (5 places) & Open Wide 25/1 E/W (6 places) - Nahaar finished best of the rest behind low 100 rated animals on seasonal debut beginning of June, and suspect he'll come on for that. Has a nice high draw (if the draw bias continues) and the return to 6f is no real negative, IMO. Pass The Vino & Open Wide both have form ties with Swindler, the current favourite for the race, Pass The Vino finished ahead of Swindler LTO, with both running off the same mark, where as Open Wide runs off 2lb lower, and since had a race in between, finishing a fair 5th in a listed affair, giving 5lb to the winner and others in the race.


13:15 - More Beautiful 2/1 (backed in multis) & Campanelle 15/2 (backed AP), currently 9/2 - I won't know which of these is my best result as would depend on how the multis go with More Beautiful in, but I don't want anything else, that I do know!


13:50 - Admiral Nelson 7/2 (backed in multis), currently 11/4, Talbot 12/1 E/W - As far as singles go, I am yet to play my hand, but Admiral Nelson is again, in a couple of multiples, so will depend how they play out. Talbot interests me for a yard who don't usually have first time out winners, and that one could go well also.


14:25 - Quadrilateral 11/4 - Only one I'm interested in here, yet to back, will probably do so soon. Think she'll come on for the 1000 Guineas run, and ahead of offical figures.


15:00 - Pinatubo 2/1 - As with Quadrilateral above, expect improvement from that run in the 2000 Guineas, and I think 1 length is easy enough to make up with a run under his belt this season now.


15:35 - Sceptical 5/1 & 4/1 (backed AP singles and in multis) - Constant improver. From a rating of 90 (start of the season) to 116 now, no telling where he can end up. On offical figures will need yet more improvement, but no reason to suggest he can't. Got to respect some solid horses in behind, but hoping he can maintain his unbeaten run this season and provide a bit of a fairytale in the process.


16:10 - Bielsa 6/1 E/W(6 places) & Mr Lupton 33/1 E/W (5 places) & 25/1 E/W (5 places) - Being a Leeds fan Bielsa goes straight into the betslip The worst kind of bet, my nan would be proud though! That said, he does go well fresh and any cut in the ground is a positive. SDS up first time this season, and Kevin Ryans horses have been running with credit. Along with that one, Mr Luptop has solid Ascot form, and with the claimer booked looks to run off his lowest weight since 2015 (claimer allowance taken into account). Run a nice prep race at Newmarket in early June, in a Group 3, among horses mostly rated above 100, will act on any going, so that is not a concern, the only worry I have currently is the draw, but he's a good animal on his day and think he can overcome this issue.


16:40 - Mekong 5/2 (if turning up as declared today) & Who Dares Wins 7/2 - The two highest rated in the field, with good reason, this race I don't want to ignore these facts. I think Faugheen_Machine has put Who Dares Wins up already, so basically following him in here. Hopefully Mekong runs today, then I will be steaming into WDW as don't see many other dangers.

I've done Saturday early, as have a busy weekend planned, so best of luck to those playing

[Viking Flagship]

I've just been through the Silver Wokingham and I REALLY like APLOMB. If the ground remains easy into Saturday then combined with stall 2 it would be enough to put me off Swindler, as much as he would otherwise look to have a cracking chance. There is not a lot of depth to this race with a lot of exposed handicappers and, like the favourite, Aplomb is a progressive 4yo and he made a really nice return at Newmarket over 5f on quick ground. The cherry on the cake is the middle draw - so if the bias does switch in the next couple of days then it's no bother. Mr Haggas looks to be in nice form too.

I've just had one of my bigger bets of the week.

[Viking Flagship]

12:40 - Nahaar 14/1 E/W (5 places), Pass The Vino 20/1 E/W (5 places) & Open Wide 25/1 E/W (6 places) - Nahaar finished best of the rest behind low 100 rated animals on seasonal debut beginning of June, and suspect he'll come on for that. Has a nice high draw (if the draw bias continues) and the return to 6f is no real negative, IMO. Pass The Vino & Open Wide both have form ties with Swindler, the current favourite for the race, Pass The Vino finished ahead of Swindler LTO, with both running off the same mark, where as Open Wide runs off 2lb lower, and since had a race in between, finishing a fair 5th in a listed affair, giving 5lb to the winner and others in the race.

Incidentally the only other one I liked at the prices is Pass The Vino but I'm going to hold off for now as he's only been tried on soft once and disappointed. If it looks like being goodish for Saturday I'll be adding.

[Viking Flagship]

Having made some nice each way returns this week in big handicaps from Shelir and Baltic Baron I'm going to put up another one at a big price for the same yard in the Wokingham - ARECIBO. It's hard to be certain what this horse's ideal trip and conditions are having raced principally over 5f on quick ground since coming over from France, yet in France he had plenty of form with cut in the ground and won at up to 6 1/2f. However given the changeable conditions (Fri & Sat currently look warm and dry) that apparent versatility is a tick in the box and this is a horse who could really come into his own this season. Clearly highly rated by connections starting out his season in the Palace House when running pretty well but not enjoying the dip, the trainer is on record as saying the horse is better than he's shown so far, hopefully will have grown up a little this season and could go a long way. He will need to have matured as he seemed like a bit of a monkey last year often travelling well but not always finding a great deal - albeit running some tidy races such as the 4th (beaten only a length) behind Oxted in the Portland and a close 8th in the Ayr Gold Cup. Finally, as with Shelir earlier in the week who was the mount of Tudhope despite Firmament looking to be first string, this time he's on Arecibo when you would have to assume he had the option of riding Summerghand who is significantly shorter in the market and would look to have an excellent chance. Only a 5yo with his first season in Britain now under his belt I'm willing to take a chance on him at the prices. As low as 14s with Coral, I've taken some of Sky's 33s with 6 places.

[nortonscoin200]

Definitely favours high draws on the straight course for most of the 5-day meeting.

I’d need to check out stalls positioning for Saturday, and also if the rails are moved to give fresh ground on the far side (low draws) on the Friday and/or Saturday.

Strangely in the Racing Post POSTDATA the Silver Wokingham and the Wokingham gives the eight lowest draws the advantage over the rest of the field.
Previous Wokingham winners don’t suggest this advantage though.

Cheers SW.....I climbed aboard yesterday.Hope the RP Postdata is right. Very much enjoyed all your Royal Ascot posts - and those of others. I've only placed seven bets so far but the fount of knowledge on the forum has made the meeting so much fun.

Afraid I've contributed zilch but hope to return a few favours on tennis and golf in the not too distant future.

[Priceiskey]

Having made some nice each way returns this week in big handicaps from Shelir and Baltic Baron I'm going to put up another one at a big price for the same yard in the Wokingham - ARECIBO. It's hard to be certain what this horse's ideal trip and conditions are having raced principally over 5f on quick ground since coming over from France, yet in France he had plenty of form with cut in the ground and won at up to 6 1/2f. However given the changeable conditions (Fri & Sat currently look warm and dry) that apparent versatility is a tick in the box and this is a horse who could really come into his own this season. Clearly highly rated by connections starting out his season in the Palace House when running pretty well but not enjoying the dip, the trainer is on record as saying the horse is better than he's shown so far, hopefully will have grown up a little this season and could go a long way. He will need to have matured as he seemed like a bit of a monkey last year often travelling well but not always finding a great deal - albeit running some tidy races such as the 4th (beaten only a length) behind Oxted in the Portland and a close 8th in the Ayr Gold Cup. Finally, as with Shelir earlier in the week who was the mount of Tudhope despite Firmament looking to be first string, this time he's on Arecibo when you would have to assume he had the option of riding Summerghand who is significantly shorter in the market and would look to have an excellent chance. Only a 5yo with his first season in Britain now under his belt I'm willing to take a chance on him at the prices. As low as 14s with Coral, I've taken some of Sky's 33s with 6 places.

Strong traveller who suits big field cavalry charges. I’m doubtful he’s good enough to win but could see him finish in the frame. Definitely worse bets at 33/1.

[Kevloaf]

One Master in the Golden Jubilee at 7/1 added this morning, into 5s now. Plenty of mines have shortened then taken a walk though so I won't get too excited


A bit of a damp squib race, the card in general in a bit meh on Saturday isn't it?

[Saxon Warrior]

Backed on Thursday morning, on news of soft ground on Day 3.

3.35pm One Master 7/1

Trixie
2.25pm Run Wild 9/2
3.00pm Palace Pier 4/1
3.35pm One Master 7/1

————————————

Already have
12.40pm Swindler 8/1

I don’t think there will be any more to add, but the one I am most interested in, on the whole day, is MORE BEAUTIFUL 1.15pm Queen Mary.

I/2-sister to my namesake Saxon Warrior, and she looked special on her debut.
I am hoping she can breakthrough into Graded races on Saturday.

[Kevloaf]

Today, in the 13:00 at Tipp, Andy Holding has napped Measure Of Magic. You can read it for yourselves, but I have decided it's an interesting angle to perhaps double her with the horse who won the race,
More Beautiful.

It is just over 14/1, so I've had 1 pt e/w on the that double.