Day 3 - Thursday - Royal Ascot 2020

[Saxon Warrior]

Thursday has been my favourite betting day of the week, since decs came out.

I’ve already placed Win Singles on
4.10pm FINEST SOUND 17/2
4.40pm DECLARED INTEREST 10/1
....since my original work on the handicaps at the start of the week.
I’ve also got these two in a Trixie with Global Storm in the 1.15pm (at 8/1, 7/1, 8/1).

I’ve looked at the card again this evening, and added two more bets.

1.15pm MAORI KNIGHT 10/1

Maori Knight ran well at Haydock, when trainer Richard Hughes thought he needed a win to get in. He was chinned on the post on his first go over 10F and has gone up in the weights by 6lb because of that run.
Crucially he will carry the same weight tomorrow, as at Haydock, as his weight rise takes effect from next week, and his trainer seems very bullish about having a light weight.

Trainer comment “I’m quite surprised we got in. We took him up to Haydock and we thought he would need to win to get him into this. He ran a big race in second which has got him here, and this has been his target all along. He’s up 6lb, but we think he’s fairly well treated, and I think it will take a fair horse to give him a stone”
He runs off 83 tomorrow, and his new rating is 89 from next week.

2.25pm LORD OF THE LODGE 15/1

Lord Of The Lodge, when the final decs were announced, stuck out to me as being overpriced, at 14/1.
He is 2lb off the top rated horse in the race, had a prep on the all-weather when doing his best work, going away, at the end of 6 furlongs.
Karl Burke thought of a possible 2000 Guineas run, but decided to move through to 7F instead.

Last season he pulled away from the rest of the Group 2 Richmond Stakes field, leaving them 3 lengths behind when chasing home Threat.
To me he seems to want 7F already, (like last years winner of this race - Space Traveller), and I think he will be very competitive in this Group 3.

I reckon I need an each-way Acca on these four, too.

[YoungHustler]

Woke up yesterday with great confidence in my selections but the day turned out to be very disappointing with some of mine being done by the draw, missing out being placed by 1 position, thinking I had won place money on Floating Artist but then seeing I only had 4 places and then finding out Mekong was declared for the Gold Cup after I had backed him a day before declarations for the final race on Saturday!!
Oh well, I'm still luckily up over 2 days thanks to Battaash. I think we're all hoping for a better day today so good luck everyone.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Almost half an inch of rain has fell and it's still coming down.

[Viking Flagship]

Added Ropey Guest in the Jersey at 45/1 EW. Yes he’s a maiden but at that price even the place part yields a nice return and has done nothing in his races to suggest he has a real problem with putting his head in front. Proven with cut in the ground finishing a close 2nd to Kenzai Warrior in the Horris Hill on heavy. Also 3rd in the Autumn Stakes on soft when beating Montatham who’s one of the favourites here today. Has Ascot form too with a cracking performance when 6th at 200/1 in the Coventry last year and a subsequent 3rd in Listed company at the course. Price is too big for a horse who is likely to run a solid race on a day when the soft ground may throw up a few surprises.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Added Ropey Guest in the Jersey at 45/1 EW. Yes he’s a maiden but at that price even the place part yields a nice return and has done nothing in his races to suggest he has a real problem with putting his head in front. Proven with cut in the ground finishing a close 2nd to Kenzai Warrior in the Horris Hill on heavy. Also 3rd in the Autumn Stakes on soft when beating Montatham who’s one of the favourites here today. Has Ascot form too with a cracking performance when 6th at 200/1 in the Coventry last year and a subsequent 3rd in Listed company at the course. Price is too big for a horse who is likely to run a solid race on a day when the soft ground may throw up a few surprises.

I'm following you in VF!

[ComplyOrDie]

14:25 - King Leonidas 10/3 & Lord Of The Lodge 10/1 E/W - Are my two plays here. The yard and jockey of King Leonidas are absolutely flying at the moment, and is hard to ignore, as he too has made an impressive start to his career. This is a big step up but one I expect to take in his stride, before going on to better things. Lord Of The Lodge had run in some fairly useful 2yo races last term, the best effort, IMO, finishing a good 2nd behind the now 114 rated, Threat. It was a good run on reappearance this season over at Newcastle, I suspect mostly for race fitness, but I mostly expect improvement to come from the step up in trip, and he could go well at a nice price. One other, who I will back out of pure sentiment, everyone loves a cliff horse, is Ropey Guest 33/1 E/W (5 places). I remember backing him in the Coventry Stakes for 5 places, and he finished 6th at 200/1, I was gutted! Since then I have managed to grab some place money on him at nice prices and is one I feel always runs a fair race. He'll have it all to do yet again, but he doesn't seem to dislike Ascot, and he has finished top 3 in Group 3's or higher no fewer than 4 times from his 10 starts (6 Group 3 or higher races), I'll be trying to nick some place money with this one, anything else is a bonus!

YES VF, from post 14

Hopefully a big run, got some 50's last night with 5 places as seemed a stupid price, for form.

Backing him for 5 places at 200/1 and coming 6th was a sickening feeling!

[Viking Flagship]

Apologies COD I’d missed that you’d already made the case. Nice to know we’re thinking along the same lines! Fingers crossed!

[Viking Flagship]

Added Grove Ferry in the 4.10 - 22/1 EW 6 places.

Looks like he should relish the step up to a mile and every chance he is better than his mark. Finished off his race well LTO when ahead of Verboten who is a much shorter price today - both horses will benefit from the step up in trip. Grove Ferry was a winner on soft as a 2yo and looks a genuine sort who should have some improvement to come.

Looks like he should relish the step up to a mile and every chance he is better than his mark. Finished off his race well LTO when ahead of Verboten who is a much shorter price today - both horses will benefit from the step up to a mile. Grove Ferry was a winner on soft as a 2yo and looks a genuine sort who should have some improvement to come.

[ComplyOrDie]

Apologies COD I’d missed that you’d already made the case. Nice to know we’re thinking along the same lines! Fingers crossed!

Haha just thought you was getting me back for Yoshimi

[kinloch brae]

You always want more but hard to quibble with two big priced winners of two difficult handicaps.

Still no rain but it is surely a question of when, rather than if it arrives.

1.15 Filed in the too difficult.

1.50 Again no obvious standout.

2.25 King Leonidas EW. Big, scopey horse who has looked like a potential Group horse. Under The Stars NR. You would have thought this race would have been perfect but instead they have chosen to confirm that she doesn't stay a mile in the Coronation. Shame.

3.00 Battlegrond (Win). Promising debut and a top pedigree. Hopefully, one race where the draw shouldn't be a significant factor.

3.35 No bet but Stradivarius looks a class apart.

4.10 Hopefully, Crowley time again. Khaloosy EW. Not exactly thrown in but plenty of potential. Should stay further but rain a likely negative.

4.40 Waliyak EW. Likely she didn't quite produce her home form on the track last season but that has left her on a decent mark. Another who will stay further and this time rain shouldn't be an excuse.

For the best of the day I will go with Waliyak.

It can often turn out be a mistake basing selections primarily on the ground but have added King Ottokar EW. I don't think I would have bothered had I not have won yesterday. He needs a return to form but he does have some course form. Obvious concern the jock but very hard to see how he could do any worse than Tudhope yesterday.

[Priceiskey]

Added Grove Ferry in the 4.10 - 22/1 EW 6 places.

Looks like he should relish the step up to a mile and every chance he is better than his mark. Finished off his race well LTO when ahead of Verboten who is a much shorter price today - both horses will benefit from the step up in trip. Grove Ferry was a winner on soft as a 2yo and looks a genuine sort who should have some improvement to come.

Looks like he should relish the step up to a mile and every chance he is better than his mark. Finished off his race well LTO when ahead of Verboten who is a much shorter price today - both horses will benefit from the step up to a mile. Grove Ferry was a winner on soft as a 2yo and looks a genuine sort who should have some improvement to come.

He’s a NR now VF

[charlie]

Jersey Stakes - Final Song @ 10/1 EW 5 places. Superb chance back over 7f with a little bit of juice in the ground at a course she’s proven at. On ratings she has work to do – and thanks to three winless efforts on dirt in Dubai this winter and a flop at Newmarket at the back end of last season she doesn’t look to have the most progressive profile. However, she firmly put her career back on an upwards curve by running huge in the 1,000 Guineas but didn’t last home behind Love. This drop in trip will help and she is match fit unlike many of her opposition. She’s drawn on the right side of the track in stall 13, where there’s been a clear draw bias towards high numbers all week, so 10/1 with five places offered each way feels very very solid given this is a drop in class and she’s getting weight from all the colts.

7's from 10's. Only bet of the day for me (can't believe it myself ). I really do think 5 places EW even at around 7/8's is a very good bet.

Done the double with Golden Horde tomorrow @ 95/1

[7barrows]

13: 50 im siding with Sir dragonet -
Its hard to see past sir dragonet and fox tal in this. sadly I cant back both odds aren’t high enough. Both are group 1 performers on their day and should have too much class for the rest of the field who have all failed at group 1 level really . These 2 have ran well at group 1 level and possibly still have more to come this season. So for me these 2 are the class acts in this.
Preference is for sir dragonet as he’s ran well in group 1s on multiple occasions whereas fox tal has only done it once. I’m also very pleased that SD has been dropped back to 1m2f as I think it’s his optimum trip, they tried so hard to make him a Derby or at leger horse last season but he didn’t stay in my opinion. If you watch the replay of both of those races he actually comes there swinging on the bit on both occasions only to get outstayed. It takes some ability to travel that well in those 2 races. This drop back could see him bounce back to his best he traveled well at naas before fitness failed him IMO . Plus if anyone can get a horse back to their peak it’s Aiden O’Brien and if this horse was 100% his best he would win this by a long way. Furthermore he loves soft ground so the heavy rain will help.

[Viking Flagship]

He’s a NR now VF

Ah, thanks PIK.

Just Yoshimi, King Ottakar and Ropey Guest for me today then I reckon.

[Kevloaf]

Of the open bets left, running tomorrow I have:


13:15 - Highland Chief 18/1 (5pl)

13:50 - King Ottokar 33/1 (4pl)

14:25 - Mystery Power 20/1 (5pl) and 14/1 (4pl) and Lord Of The North 9/1 (4pl) (available at 14s now)

15:00 - no bet yet

15:35 - Stradivarius 5/1 and 2/1 (doubled with Battaash on Tuesday and Russian Emperor on Wednesday)

16:10 - Finest Sound 5/1 (6pl) and Great Ambassador 33/1 (6pl)

16:40 - no bet yet

Added Regal Reality 9/1 (4pl) in the 13:50

I might add Battleground in the 15:00 if I've had any returns and if Stradivarius does go evens I might double them.

Also Huboor in the 16:40 14 (5pl)