Antepost Market for 2020 Flat Racing Season

[kinloch brae]

Regarding the Arc, none of this lot go in the sloppy stuff better than they run on better ground.
I’m not sure there is a soft ground angle for any of them, in the race.

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I looked through all of the entries this afternoon, couldn’t find another angle, so decided to leave it, and invest further into SANTA BARBARA to win the 1000 Guineas, and to win the Oaks, before the prices collapse further.

Her debut was pretty special, the best debut on RPR’s for any filly less than 50/1 in the betting for both the 1000 Guineas and the Oaks.

I’m thinking that she will be the one to put it up to Shale and Pretty Gorgeous in the 1000 Guineas, and I think Santa Barbara is an even better selection for The Oaks.

I need to see if I can find a special out there for her to win both.

I only watched this back yesterday as I do a weekly catch-up.

No doubt she was impressive although she was a little fortunate to get a dream run up the rail. The only negative I could see was the peculiar head carriage which might be down to inexperience.

Obviously, the ship had sailed on the Oaks prices, which was the first thing I looked at. A best of 12/1 wasn't tempting. Moving to the 1,000 Guineas I thought the 25/1 was more reasonable. Aidan doesn't have an obvious Guineas filly and despite being by Camelot he might well see Newmarket as a stepping stone to the Oaks. At this stage we know a mile is no problem, it is speculation that she will be better over a mile and a half.

[Saxon Warrior]

I only watched this back yesterday as I do a weekly catch-up.

No doubt she was impressive although she was a little fortunate to get a dream run up the rail. The only negative I could see was the peculiar head carriage which might be down to inexperience.

Obviously, the ship had sailed on the Oaks prices, which was the first thing I looked at. A best of 12/1 wasn't tempting. Moving to the 1,000 Guineas I thought the 25/1 was more reasonable. Aidan doesn't have an obvious Guineas filly and despite being by Camelot he might well see Newmarket as a stepping stone to the Oaks. At this stage we know a mile is no problem, it is speculation that she will be better over a mile and a half.

The cupboard is barer than usual for AOB with 2yo top of the table talent this season, for sure.

Santa Barbara is the first "sit up and take note" first time out performance from any of his 2yo that I can recall.

Regarding next season, it could be preferable for her to get a second run this season, as the 1000 Guineas tends to be won by fillies with several runs at 2, and/or a higher rating than she has after her one run.
But that is based on stats, and each horse is different.

AOB's normal philosophy with his better fillies, regardless of breeding is to give them chances in classics at both 1M and then 1M4F, so the standout price of 25/1 for the 1000 Guineas with one firm (20/1 with one other, 16/1 generally) still looks very good to me.

The Oaks was the race hammered down in price earlier this week, probably due to a lack of known depth at the top of that market, and also because she is by Camelot, and her 1/2-sister (by a sire with less stamina) won two Grade 1's over 10F including the Breeders Cup F&M Turf.

The Oaks is the race I would primarily pick her for, if I could only choose one, but I am happy to have both races covered.

[Quevega]

The cupboard is barer than usual for AOB with 2yo top of the table talent this season, for sure.

Santa Barbara is the first "sit up and take note" first time out performance from any of his 2yo that I can recall.

Regarding next season, it could be preferable for her to get a second run this season, as the 1000 Guineas tends to be won by fillies with several runs at 2, and/or a higher rating than she has after her one run.
But that is based on stats, and each horse is different.

AOB's normal philosophy with his better fillies, regardless of breeding is to give them chances in classics at both 1M and then 1M4F, so the standout price of 25/1 for the 1000 Guineas with one firm (20/1 with one other, 16/1 generally) still looks very good to me.

The Oaks was the race hammered down in price earlier this week, probably due to a lack of known depth at the top of that market, and also because she is by Camelot, and her 1/2-sister (by a sire with less stamina) won two Grade 1's over 10F including the Breeders Cup F&M Turf.

The Oaks is the race I would primarily pick her for, if I could only choose one, but I am happy to have both races covered.

Was you not impressed with High Definition warrior ?
It's about as good a 2 year old performance I've seen.
Specifically the style of victory, last to first by galloping, and the pace seemed decent as the positions were maintained, aside from the winner obviously.
And it was the Beresford.
He looks as obvious a Derby winner as I've seen.
Since the Warrior himself won the 2 year old trophy at Doncaster. He let me down though.

[kinloch brae]

I am not on High Definition but I would like to know that he could also produce if he raced in a more conventional manner. Again all the prices have gone. It was a Beresford but difficult to know how strong a race it was with both second and third having their sixth runs.

[Saxon Warrior]

Was you not impressed with High Definition warrior ?
It's about as good a 2 year old performance I've seen.
Specifically the style of victory, last to first by galloping, and the pace seemed decent as the positions were maintained, aside from the winner obviously.
And it was the Beresford.
He looks as obvious a Derby winner as I've seen.
Since the Warrior himself won the 2 year old trophy at Doncaster. He let me down though.

Q,

I am in two minds about High Definitions runs.
Both runs showed him outpaced and then finding sufficient to run on eye-catchingly in the last 300 yards to win by 3/4 of a length each time.

I remember that you have a big price on him, which is a great place to be, going into the winter months.
I took 25/1 for the Derby with a small bet pre-Beresford so I am invested in a small way too (my only bet on the race).

My concerns are related to the first part of his races, and I think that any colt getting a bad early position in an Epsom Derby would probably end their chances.
For me, his first run back should provide the answer as to whether he can lay up and travel better early on, and he could well be the Derby winner, if/when that happened.

He does look a stayer, and If I had to pick a classic race for him it would be the St Leger, but AOB doesnt put his best horses in that race.

Looking at the Derby market, he is the obvious favourite, with little below him in the market, that has won over a Mile in a Group race, or shown enough to be less than a 25/1 shot at the moment.
So in the early Derby market he is the only game in town until others reveal more.

I had Saxon Warrior down as a 2000 Guineas horse the moment he quickened away from his maiden field on debut, and I wasn't convinced that having that pace he would double up in the Derby (so I had much lower stakes on Epsom).

[Quevega]

I thought the outpaced side of it was more his greenness, but kind of agree with both of you, it will be when we see him at three (like most 2yr olds though).
It was the stride when the penny dropped that blew me away.

[Saxon Warrior]

I thought the outpaced side of it was more his greenness, but kind of agree with both of you, it will be when we see him at three (like most 2yr olds though).
It was the stride when the penny dropped that blew me away.

Its a great feeling when you get blown away by a horses performance.
One of the reasons I watch so much racing, is for moments you feel like that.

[YoungHustler]

10/1 is massive if she is declared and runs, but I wouldn’t want lose cash if he hasnt done his homework.
Hopefully you can get a quick answer.

No response from attheraces regarding any news they had on Santa Barbara's participation in next week's Fillie's mile. However, the 10s with B365 is now 4s and she is a general 4/1 with most firms but still wouldn't like to guess if this will be the plan unless someone has news? I'd cashed out this morning(before price dropped so no profit) apart from 0.25pts but 4s would still be a good price if she was definitely running.

[Saxon Warrior]

No response from attheraces regarding any news they had on Santa Barbara's participation in next week's Fillie's mile. However, the 10s with B365 is now 4s and she is a general 4/1 with most firms but still wouldn't like to guess if this will be the plan unless someone has news? I'd cashed out this morning (before price dropped so no profit) apart from 0.25pts but 4s would still be a good price if she was definitely running.

Fillies Mile is at Newmarket on Friday, and SANTA BARBARA has been declared.

Looks like she must have come out of last weekends debut well enough to be declared.

She is easily the best of AOBs mass-entry in the race, and probably has Shale, Indigo Girl and Monsoon Moon (the last two are Johnny G fillies) to beat.
- I'm not sure Shale would be fav on Soft ground either, despite being a Grade 1 winner.

[YoungHustler]

Fillies Mile is at Newmarket on Friday, and SANTA BARBARA has been declared.

Looks like she must have come out of last weekends debut well enough to be declared.

She is easily the best of AOBs mass-entry in the race, and probably has Shale, Indigo Girl and Monsoon Moon (the last two are Johnny G fillies) to beat.
- I'm not sure Shale would be fav on Soft ground either, despite being a Grade 1 winner.

Ha Ha, wish I had left it to cash out this evening as I thought the Decs were tomorrow!

[Saxon Warrior]

Golden Pal is 4/5 with first UK bookmaker for his Breeders Cup prep at Keeneland on Sunday evening (9pm UK time).

Plum Ali runs in her Breeders Cup prep 12minutes later in the 9.12pm Belmont.
She is 5/2 2nd fav for her race.

[kinloch brae]

Golden Pal is 4/5 with first UK boookmaker for his Breeders Cup prep at Keeneland on Sunday evening (9pm UK time).

Plum Ali runs in her Breeders Cup prep 12minutes later in the 9.12pm Belmont.
She is 5/2 2nd fav for her race.

Surely the value is the 4/5 Golden Pal tomorrow rather than the 5/2 for the Breeders Cup?

That said my US form study pretty much boils down to a week around the Breeders Cup. Our races are bad enough but I find their races very difficult to read. It is so much about pace and it seems that much of the time the horses look as if they are running on fumes at the finish. I don't know why they would want that because it isn't a good look.

[kinloch brae]

Surely the value is the 4/5 Golden Pal tomorrow rather than the 5/2 for the Breeders Cup?

That said my US form study pretty much boils down to a week around the Breeders Cup. Our races are bad enough but I find their races very difficult to read. It is so much about pace and it seems that much of the time the horses look as if they are running on fumes at the finish. I don't know why they would want that because it isn't a good look.

Golden Pal and Wink scratched.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Golden Pal and Wink scratched.

Ward has previously said that Golden Pal goes straight to the Breeders Cup so wonder if there was any serious intention on running him. He had three in the race and scratched the 2 that already had turf experience

[Salubrious Chin]

Spot on RC, confirmed by Ward here: https://twitter.com/tvg/status/1312844785259024385?s=21