Antepost Market for 2020 Flat Racing Season

[kinloch brae]

Thanks for the mention Kev

Groundwork complete.

The bet has lasted through 4 Group races, since we backed her, and the price shrunk dramatically now.

Plenty of chance to cashout along the way, as 365 were the firm offering the 66's, especially when Shale beat her in the Group 3 and PG stayed at 50's.

(I think there's some early August posts in the daily bets thread (pages 70 & 72) that picks up my comments to stick with her, as the Irish Fillies 7F Group race programme often has high quality flip-flopping winners through the Silver Flash (Gp3), Debutante (Gp2) and Moyglare (Gp1).)

Gosden quoted that Indigo Girl would not be going for the Guineas, and start with an Oaks prep, so thats one out of the way.

Good ground or quicker, then Shale is in the reckoning

Others to note that didnt run today are Monsoon Moon (Gosden) and AOB's Santa Barbara - who looks a likely Guineas/Oaks filly, with emphasis on the Oaks, like Love looked to be, a year ago, but Santa Barbara has only ran once, not 7 times as a juvenile.

Let's hope Pretty Gorgeous turns up at Newmarket in May, and we enjoy watching her as much as we have the last two months.

Good luck with your bet but I would be concerned about ground and jock for Pretty Gorgeous.

Just watched Crosse on Earth Strike (9/1-3/1) and he is stuck out wide, nearly runs into the back of another horse and ends up an also ran. He looks very weak in the saddle. That follows poor efforts from both Pista and Thinking Of You.

[Kevloaf]

Good luck with your bet but I would be concerned about ground and jock for Pretty Gorgeous.

Just watched Crosse on Earth Strike (9/1-3/1) and he is stuck out wide, nearly runs into the back of another horse and ends up an also ran. He looks very weak in the saddle. That follows poor efforts from both Pista and Thinking Of You.

You're concerned about ground and jock for every bet

As ever I think this is about people who have 'missed the boat' trying to convince themselves they haven't 'missed the boat'. Probably happens on all threads.

The irony

[Saxon Warrior]

Thanks KB,

I’m not concerned about any antepost bets I’ve got, and it’s become well known that Pretty Gorgeous wins on ground the soft side of good, and is a little more beatable when the going is good.

I’ve got her as a soft ground pick, and Santa Barbara and Shale if the ground is good.

[kinloch brae]

Noon Star was an impressive winner at Nottingham. Given performance and pedigree the post race quote of 50/1 for the Oaks looked pretty reasonable.

The downside would be that Stoute is increasingly becoming yesterday's man where the Classics are concerned. Last year he had impressive maiden winners in the likes of Higher Ground, Satono Japan, Snow Shower, Society Lion and none have made much of a stir this season.

[kinloch brae]

I only watched this back yesterday as I do a weekly catch-up.

No doubt she was impressive although she was a little fortunate to get a dream run up the rail. The only negative I could see was the peculiar head carriage which might be down to inexperience.

Obviously, the ship had sailed on the Oaks prices, which was the first thing I looked at. A best of 12/1 wasn't tempting. Moving to the 1,000 Guineas I thought the 25/1 was more reasonable. Aidan doesn't have an obvious Guineas filly and despite being by Camelot he might well see Newmarket as a stepping stone to the Oaks. At this stage we know a mile is no problem, it is speculation that she will be better over a mile and a half.

Just from the point of 'missing the boat' I think I have admitted the fact above and still gone on to back the horse. No rubbishing it to make me feel better. I back far fewer ante-post than many on here so chances are I am not going to be missing the boat every few days.

[Saxon Warrior]

Just from the point of 'missing the boat' I think I have admitted the fact above and still gone on to back the horse. No rubbishing it to make me feel better. I back far fewer ante-post than many on here so chances are I am not going to be missing the boat every few days.

I was hoping that she would get a second run this season, as recent 1000 Guineas winners have more than a single 2yo run, still got my fingers crossed for that.

Th race that spring to mind for me is the Listed 1M Montrose Stakes, for fillies, held at Newmarket’s last meeting at the start of November.

Last season AOB sent over Peaceful after her maiden win, and she got beaten in a photo by Born With Pride (W Haggas), with Run Wild (J Gosden) a length-&-a-quarter back in 3rd.

Maybe if Santa Barbara is showing the right signs she could come over for that.

[Saxon Warrior]

I’m getting a surge of confidence (yikes) that surely King Vega will bring up a Futurity treble for Andrew Balding, with his 3rd recent winner of the race (currently 2 wins from only three runners, in the last six years).

He looked every inch a Group horse in his 2 Sandown 2nd places, and the trainer automatically highlighted this race as a plan, and he has been put away for the last 2 months waiting for Saturday.

Apart from Mrs Wembley (the eternal bridesmaid), he is already close to the best of the rest ratings-wise, and has only been over 7F so far, when it’s clear to me that he will be better over the mile.

Might have a dip, with cashout, on the 50/1 for the 2000 Guineas, and 40/1 for the Derby, too before the off on Saturday, particularly if the Futurity money continues to roll in for him, and some of the others currently entered at Donny don’t run.

[jack1092]

Interesting horse Saxon, i agree. Wonder why Frankie not riding Megallan?

[YoungHustler]

I followed Tom Segal with his antepost bets for the Melbourne Cup. Tiger Moth's price had halved in price to 5 but has now drifted out again after she was drawn 23. I tried to go in again with 888 who were offering 8s this morning with a tiny bet and apologies but they cut the price to 7s straight away and still didn't my bet! However Hills are offering 15/2 and I've taken that. The draw is not ideal and I've just taken it as an opportunity to get more on, especially as you can get 6 places. Last year's winner was drawn in 21 and the 5th was drawn 20th. In 2019, the winner was drawn 19, 3rd in 20 and 5th in 21.
The other horse is Warning and you can get 40s with Hills so I've gone in again on him too. He hasn't been running too badly when you consider the yard have just been ticking him over with inadequate trips and the Cup has been his target all season. He may not be good enough but I'd like to be on anyway.

[Saxon Warrior]

Good to see Mother Earth uphold the Pretty Gorgeous and Shale form with a 2nd in the Grade 1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf over 1M @14/1.

She was beaten in three successive races by Pretty Gorgeous, in Grade 2, 1, 1, so it’s a strong level of known collateral form.

Mother Earth is the best of the AOB fillies that were regular runners this season, but I believe that the once-raced Santa Barbara could be a worthy contender for the best of AOB’s crown, when the Classic trials start, hopefully we will see her in one.
The Oaks being a prime target, and maybe a crack at the 1000 Guineas first, if he can get a run into her before Newmarket.

[parimutuel]

LIFE IS GOOD @ 20/1 Kentucky Derby 2021 b365

An exciting prospect

https://youtu.be/kluxiQEW6AE

[Saxon Warrior]

MOGUL comfortably wins the Group 1 Hong Kong Vase this morning, among plaudits for the horse from AOB.

Cut to between 12/1 and 20/1 for the Arc in October 2021.

Except for Betfred who have left the horse at 33/1. Opportunity to take a big price, in a race that the trainer will be desperate to return to next season having had to take all of his horses out (including Mogul) due to contaminated feed this October.

Not forgetting Mogul won the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris comfortably from In Swoop, a month before the Arc this season, and while Mogul had to miss the race, In Swoop went on to be beaten only a Neck in the race.

[FinalFurlong91]

He likes good ground so like love is a risky proposition ante post for the Arc

[Saxon Warrior]

He has only ran on good ground this season, and the two Grade 1 wins recently, are due to the trainer stating that he's now got the tactics right.

He's built like a sprinter-miler that can stay well and quicken. Sounds like a fantastic combo.

No doubt he will be stronger as a 4yo and when he comes up against soft ground next autumn, hopefully he will be able to cope as well as the opposition do.

[parimutuel]

Taken a flyer on two debutants running tomorrow for next years Kentucky Derby.

INSPIRATION POINT @ 40/1

VA VA VEGAS @ 40/1