Antepost Market for 2020 Flat Racing Season

[Saxon Warrior]

Plum Ali bolts up in the Grade 2, and is now 2nd fav in most books for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf behind Wesley Ward’s Campanelle.

[ryanh97]

Pinatubo no longer in the betting for the QEII. Did I miss something?

[jack1092]

Pinatubo no longer in the betting for the QEII. Did I miss something?

He's sadly been pulled from it Ryan

[kinloch brae]

Disappointed to see Thunder Moon pitching up in the Dewhurst. If they all go it will be like trying to win the Guineas twice. As a horse with such a change of pace I don't think he wants soft ground and I definitely don't think he wants a very average jock in McDonagh. I think he had already done enough and there is a good chance this will go pear-shaped.

[jack1092]

Disappointed to see Thunder Moon pitching up in the Dewhurst. If they all go it will be like trying to win the Guineas twice. As a horse with such a change of pace I don't think he wants soft ground and I definitely don't think he wants a very average jock in McDonagh. I think he had already done enough and there is a good chance this will go pear-shaped.

Out of interest what jockeys do you rate I feel like most of your posts on here include a negative opinion on a jockey's ride or booking?

[kinloch brae]

Out of interest what jockeys do you rate I feel like most of your posts on here include a negative opinion on a jockey's ride or booking?

Very few, but you have to make the best of it. I think the general standard, particularly of the Flat jockeys in England and Ireland is terrible.

The problem we have is that all you will get from the media outlets is cheerleading. You would never think there is a bad ride out there. Even the best of the current bunch can go from hero to zero in half-an-hour.

[Quevega]

Disappointed to see Thunder Moon pitching up in the Dewhurst. If they all go it will be like trying to win the Guineas twice. As a horse with such a change of pace I don't think he wants soft ground and I definitely don't think he wants a very average jock in McDonagh. I think he had already done enough and there is a good chance this will go pear-shaped.

I, like you, am not afraid to criticise jockeys - and the media is loathe to do so. Not sure why.
The jockey is a massive influence on any horse race.

Although in this case you're being overly pessimistic that Mcdonagh will effectively damage this horses reputation with a poor ride.
It'll take a pretty bad ride on a horse like this and at a track like this for him to fuck it up.
He'll be held up, so unless he's way too far back for some reason, then their should be no excuses. (watch him get boxed in somehow)

I do agree that it's a massive test though and they could have protected his reputation until next year. But it's surely better for the sporting punter.

[YoungHustler]

Disappointed to see Thunder Moon pitching up in the Dewhurst. If they all go it will be like trying to win the Guineas twice. As a horse with such a change of pace I don't think he wants soft ground and I definitely don't think he wants a very average jock in McDonagh. I think he had already done enough and there is a good chance this will go pear-shaped.

I'm not disappointed at all and think it's an absolutely smashing race. I just love to see the best horses competing against each. I've backed Thunder Moon(rather too much as was pissed when he won LTO) for the guineas and if it does go pear shaped, I could be tempted again if he drifts massively(unlikely)!

[Kevloaf]

Cheers boys,

Love the antepost picking on the flat, particularly from maiden races into classic contenders.

Let’s hope Pretty Gorgeous can follow in the footsteps of my super-spot Saxon Warrior, and win a Newmarket Guineas.

I also can’t believe the bookies pushed out Shale to a general 33/1.
They need to take a close look at the rhythm of the Silver Flash-Debutante-Moyglare Stud Stakes, it produces 3yo Group 1 horses regularly, and form is often overturned through the three races, as it was today (which looked likely given the ground and Pretty Gorgeous having 2 races before, instead of just the one before the Silver Flash).

Pretty Gorgeous looks a miler now already, I would love to see her come to the Fillies Mile, which AOB has used a lot in the past (Love ran in it last year, a close up 3rd, beaten a length) to give his classic fillies a sighter of Newmarket.

Joseph used it for Iridessa too , winning it 2 years ago (beating the next years 1000 Guineas winner Her moss into 2nd).

I’m presuming because of a Covid they stay at home for the 7F Moyglare first, and then decide whether to run again or not.

Worth going back and reading page 3 in this thread....

Superb tipping SW, well done. Some pretty pleased people sitting on 66/1 slips because of you.....

[Saxon Warrior]

Worth going back and reading page 3 in this thread....

Superb tipping SW, well done. Some pretty pleased people sitting on 66/1 slips because of you.....

Thanks for the mention Kev

Groundwork complete.

The bet has lasted through 4 Group races, since we backed her, and the price shrunk dramatically now.

Plenty of chance to cashout along the way, as 365 were the firm offering the 66's, especially when Shale beat her in the Group 3 and PG stayed at 50's.

(I think there's some early August posts in the daily bets thread (pages 70 & 72) that picks up my comments to stick with her, as the Irish Fillies 7F Group race programme often has high quality flip-flopping winners through the Silver Flash (Gp3), Debutante (Gp2) and Moyglare (Gp1).)

Gosden quoted that Indigo Girl would not be going for the Guineas, and start with an Oaks prep, so thats one out of the way.

Good ground or quicker, then Shale is in the reckoning

Others to note that didnt run today are Monsoon Moon (Gosden) and AOB's Santa Barbara - who looks a likely Guineas/Oaks filly, with emphasis on the Oaks, like Love looked to be, a year ago, but Santa Barbara has only ran once, not 7 times as a juvenile.

Let's hope Pretty Gorgeous turns up at Newmarket in May, and we enjoy watching her as much as we have the last two months.

[Kevloaf]

Yes I'm glad I "kept the faith" after the defeat. Was definitely an advocate of giving her another go and with hindsight that's looked a great decision.

By the time we get to the end of March I'll have forgotten I put it on though and start wondering why I didn't back Shale when you mentioned her too

[Saxon Warrior]

Yes I'm glad I "kept the faith" after the defeat. Was definitely an advocate of giving her another go and with hindsight that's looked a great decision.

By the time we get to the end of March I'll have forgotten I put it on though and start wondering why I didn't back Shale when you mentioned her too

It will be ground related for her, she needs quicker ground to have a chance to win.

Her dam Homecoming Queen was the easiest winner of the 1000 Guineas I will ever see.
I watched the race back a month or so ago, as a I thought she may have got a soft lead, but she didn’t, she sat at the front of the pack, then absolutely destroyed them going into/out of the dip.
Homecoming Queen wasn’t as good as Shale at 2, so there’s always the chance of history repeating itself with Shale if the ground is decent.

[Quevega]

I wouldn't run Shale at Newmarket again.
Definitely was unbalanced when they hit the dips.

For a big lass, Pretty Gorgeous seemed ok with it.

[Priceiskey]

Worth going back and reading page 3 in this thread....

Superb tipping SW, well done. Some pretty pleased people sitting on 66/1 slips because of you.....

Yes SW that’s a cracking shout so early. Well done, she’s the one to beat.

[kinloch brae]

Disappointed to see Thunder Moon pitching up in the Dewhurst. If they all go it will be like trying to win the Guineas twice. As a horse with such a change of pace I don't think he wants soft ground and I definitely don't think he wants a very average jock in McDonagh. I think he had already done enough and there is a good chance this will go pear-shaped.

Well I think that constitutes pear-shaped.

Previous form turned around and he didn't even see out seven furlongs on that ground.

If it is good ground on Guineas day they will probably still pitch up but it wouldn't surprise me at all if he ends up in the Commonwealth Cup. He travels well and he should have no issues finishing strongly over that trip. It is a shame there isn't a quote.