Daily Flat Racing Tips

[Kevloaf]

I'm so interested in this race now and can't really explain why haha.

I can't leave Snowy Owl and HMS Seahorse unbacked at 20/1, but also split stakes and chances the 17/2 e/w for them both without Wembley.

I wasn't expecting Mac Swiney to be the same price as he was on debut either, at 12/1 (and 5/1 without Wembley) he has less than 2L to make up on Wembley and will surely also improve from the run, so with one now odds on I want him onside too.

The 4 horses mentioned all have fancy entries and I can live with it if Wembley wins at that price.




There doesn't seem to be a load of confidence so far behind Cold Steel or Erzindjan on their first runs and the current 2nd fav, Colour Sergeant doesn't really stand out as the main danger as he would need the extra distance to help today but that's factored in to the price already as the bare form isn't that good IMO.


The other two, Kalaroun and Bell Ex One I think will be also-rans.

With the seemingly unreal amount of money that has come for Wembley today, I'm going to chance 50/1 for the 2000 Guineas. Cashout available.

[YoungHustler]

Tabdeed just won the 4pm at Newbury for Burrows and Crowley after being well backed today. They have a very similar type running tomorrow in the 2.15 at Newbury called Shabaaby who is generally 7s. I've just taken 15/2.

[OverTheLast]

Cheers Kev.

[Kevloaf]

With the seemingly unreal amount of money that has come for Wembley today, I'm going to chance 50/1 for the 2000 Guineas. Cashout available.

Cashed for 1 0.1 pt loss

I'm so interested in this race now and can't really explain why haha.

I can't leave Snowy Owl and HMS Seahorse unbacked at 20/1, but also split stakes and chances the 17/2 e/w for them both without Wembley.

I wasn't expecting Mac Swiney to be the same price as he was on debut either, at 12/1 (and 5/1 without Wembley) he has less than 2L to make up on Wembley and will surely also improve from the run, so with one now odds on I want him onside too.

The 4 horses mentioned all have fancy entries and I can live with it if Wembley wins at that price.




There doesn't seem to be a load of confidence so far behind Cold Steel or Erzindjan on their first runs and the current 2nd fav, Colour Sergeant doesn't really stand out as the main danger as he would need the extra distance to help today but that's factored in to the price already as the bare form isn't that good IMO.


The other two, Kalaroun and Bell Ex One I think will be also-rans.

Well that has gone well

[kinloch brae]

It clearly isn't a betting race but given the pedigrees on show the 1.05 at Newbury is the watch race tomorrow.

My five bets go at York and Newbury:-

Eagles By Day EW
Caradoc EW
Que Amore EW
Lady G EW
Summerghand EW

Eagles By Day hasn't backed up the initial impression and as a betting proposition tomorrow is probably the last chance saloon. There is no obvious standout in the race and hopefully, the change of scenery will be a positive. Caradoc is another who hasn't really hit the heights that might have been expected after he bolted up at Chester. In fact on occasions he has looked something of a bookmakers pal. That said it will be very disappointing if he can't finish in the four tomorrow. Que Amoro is 2/3 at the track and should relish the drying ground. Fingers crossed she can cope with the step up in class. Given his abysmal effort in the July Cup I will be throwing bricks at the television if Equilateral wins. Last week he wouldn't have figured at any distance. I think Lady G is twice the price she should be. That maiden form looks better to me than anything Virgin Snow has achieved. Summerghand should already have got his big pay day in the Wokingham. That was just one of many consistent big field handicap runs. Although it is a smaller field he should get enough pace to run at tomorrow. The one thing that stops me bordering on being confident is the jock. Bentley is another member of the weighing room bridle club. Summerghand showed how well he could sustain a run at Ascot so in an ideal scenario the jock needs to find some daylight and start driving from two out. I am sure the last thing connections want is the horse finishing well again without winning.

Eagles By Day 1st 14/1
Lady G 2nd 18/1
Que Amore 2nd 13/2
Passion 3rd 10/1

A tidy profit but two winners would have been nice.

Eagles By Day travelled like the best horse and although there was a moment inside the final furlong when I thought here we go again, he has ultimately held on well.

Both Lady G and Que Amore have run well. Lady G was probably the gamble of the day but just ran into a less straightforward type who had more ability on the day. The pace battle probably ended up costing Que Amore.

If Passion had got an uncontested freebie she might have gone very close. As it is the other O'Brien runners seemed to do their best to wreck her chances.

Both Caradoc and Summerghand were disappointing. I would be happy to give Summerghand another chance as he didn't seem to travel a yard for Bentley. On the other hand that was one disappointment too many for Caradoc. It is about time Walker started delivering in this sort of race. You can't exist forever on a bit of pot hunting with Stormy Antarctic.

Four bets tomorrow, two at York and two at Chantilly.

Dark Lady EW
Living In The Past EW
Harajuku EW
Positive EW

The thinking behind both Dark Lady and Living In The Past is the same. They are both Group winners against rivals who so far are listed class at best. If they can reproduce anything like that ability then they are too big.

I wouldn't back many unraced horses but I thought Harakuju was big enough given her connections and pedigree. The favourite will be difficult to beat (combination mopping up similar races) but she does receive a handy five pounds.

I think Positive achieved more in finishing fourth at Ascot than Persian King has this season. Fingers crossed it stays dry.

[Kevloaf]

Well done with Eagles By Day. Impressive picking out the outside of any given field.

[Stormy Antarctic]

Any thoughts on Brentford Hope today? The form of his win isn’t looking outstanding now, though he did win so easily. He might just be a Lay for me at the current price. The 2nd fav looks very good and Roberto Escobarr, being a Galileo could show a lot of improvement this time.

[Stormy Antarctic]

On a separate note.
Sasvana in the 5.45 at the Curragh catches my eye. Condon has an excellent night last night, the price is drifting like a barge and she looks bred for further than this 5F. Hopefully the soft ground will bring some stamina into play. The horses she ran alongside on her 2nd start have all gone on to show some excellent form including group winners.
A mark of 70 may prove to massively underestimate mate her.

Not at all confident, but I thought at 16/1 she was worth some EW money

[Quevega]

Not a tip but odd betting

Backed Galtee Mist in the 2-35 at Curragh last night.
At the bizarre odds of 23-1 with B365, put 1 pt each way on as I watched it run last time and it caught my eye.
Pretty sure I backed it when at won at Galway last July also.

Within 15 minutes it was 13/2 with B365 ??
So when PP & BF went 25-1 I had a other point each way with each.

Got a feeling this may drift right back out (best price 10's now), but it's a valuable handicap so expect they are trying.
Hopefully it gets out well and leads as this is what she does when she runs her best races.

[Priceiskey]

Any thoughts on Brentford Hope today? The form of his win isn’t looking outstanding now, though he did win so easily. He might just be a Lay for me at the current price. The 2nd fav looks very good and Roberto Escobarr, being a Galileo could show a lot of improvement this time.

Completely different ground I’m happy to take him on. I agree Roberto Escobar could take a big step forward and nothing went right for him on debut. Matthew Flinders and Thumur clash again with the latter getting a 7 pound swing. Thumur looks to be crying out for 12f but with the weight swing I don’t see a lot between them and he looks the value at over double the price.

I see your namesake is going in France. If the ground was more testing I’d be confident he could hit the first 4 but it may not be. Anyway 25/1 4 places was enough to tempt me in for a little e/w.

[Stormy Antarctic]

Completely different ground I’m happy to take him on. I agree Roberto Escobar could take a big step forward and nothing went right for him on debut. Matthew Flinders and Thumur clash again with the latter getting a 7 pound swing. Thumur looks to be crying out for 12f but with the weight swing I don’t see a lot between them and he looks the value at over double the price.

I see your namesake is going in France. If the ground was more testing I’d be confident he could hit the first 4 but it may not be. Anyway 25/1 4 places was enough to tempt me in for a little e/w.

Yeah, he seems to have regressed a bit this year. I think he does just need softer ground now. He’s obviously gelded so they’ll probably keep him going for as long as he wants to.

[Kevloaf]

I've backed Magnanumous 5/1 (5pl) in the 17:15 at The Curragh based on the entries and 'cos I Joseph.


This angle of backing the horses with the fancy entries has been highlighted to me and is working out nicely so far, this looks a fairly safe bet to me too. He's 6/1 best price (3pl). Very disappointed if not in the mix.

[Kevloaf]

Any thoughts on Brentford Hope today? The form of his win isn’t looking outstanding now, though he did win so easily. He might just be a Lay for me at the current price. The 2nd fav looks very good and Roberto Escobarr, being a Galileo could show a lot of improvement this time.

I really, really like him and will be disappointed if he's beaten today.

That said, I haven't backed him.


I just want him to win, must be a ride Spencer has made sure he's back for.


I will back him at 7/4 or bigger though.

[SharpHat]

I've backed Magnanumous 5/1 (5pl) in the 17:15 at The Curragh based on the entries and 'cos I Joseph.


This angle of backing the horses with the fancy entries has been highlighted to me and is working out nicely so far, this looks a fairly safe bet to me too. He's 6/1 best price (3pl). Very disappointed if not in the mix.

Followed you in on him, place only at 13/8, doubled with shishkin in arkle

[Kevloaf]

Followed you in on him, place only at 13/8, doubled with shishkin in arkle

The 4/1 without the fav is another option (E/W)