Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe 2020

[Quevega]

Kealy came up with an interesting point for this race.

Santiago !
If O'Brien's all flop tomorrow and/also especially if English King wins well.
There's a fair chance he becomes their number one middle distance horse and goes for the King George and Arc.

Only priced up with Skybet at moment 25-1, and not at all for the King George.

As Santiago not running tomorrow his price is likely to go unnoticed. Shame he's not priced up with B365 really.

[Kevloaf]

The market move with Paddy would have me backing Russian Emperor at 33/1

Russian Emperor now shorter in the Derby market than Mogul.

[samcow]

Think he's only shorter because mogul has a bad draw

[Kevloaf]

Think he's only shorter because mogul has a bad draw

Really? You don't think it's also fair to say Mogul also has worse form?

[Kevloaf]

Ghaiyyath 25/1
Frankly Darling 25/1
Love 20/1
Mogul 33/1
Russian Emperor 33/1
English King 25/1

All added.


Let's hope at least 1 of these 6 shorten dramatically


I may well chance Victor Ludorum with WH whilst they're 25/1 before he runs on Sunday in the Prix du Jockey Club.... he's fav for that currently at 9/4

They suspended the cashout about halfway through the race which was too early to get 95% back, but at the new prices Frankly Darling is 33/1, so cashed out Frankly Darling (75% of stake)


Obviously very happy to leave Love though


Just wondering whether to cash out any of the others before the Derby, but I think I'll risk them all and take the 25% losses in the hope we get another good winner.

[Faugheen_Machine]

8/1 is too big for Love with the sex and age allowance, even with my worry about the ground.

2pts win.

[Faugheen_Machine]

They suspended the cashout about halfway through the race which was too early to get 95% back, but at the new prices Frankly Darling is 33/1, so cashed out Frankly Darling (75% of stake)


Obviously very happy to leave Love though


Just wondering whether to cash out any of the others before the Derby, but I think I'll risk them all and take the 25% losses in the hope we get another good winner.

I'd hold tight, Kev. An impressive Derby winner and you'll be in a great position

[Kevloaf]

I'd hold tight, Kev. An impressive Derby winner and you'll be in a great position

Yeah I will.

I feel like Kameko, even if he won, would drop back to 10f at the end of the season for the Champion Stakes.... gambling on not covering him!

[kinloch brae]

I would be wary of taking the current Arc prices. I think ground is very important to the winner and you will need a bit of luck to get no worse than good ground on Arc day. Although she was hugely impressive I will stick with my pre-race thought that she beat two horses who are better at 1m2f. The rest of them were either second division or lacking the experience to cope with a race pulled apart by two front runners.

[Kevloaf]

I would be wary of taking the current Arc prices. I think ground is very important to the winner and you will need a bit of luck to get no worse than good ground on Arc day. Although she was hugely impressive I will stick with my pre-race thought that she beat two horses who are better at 1m2f. The rest of them were either second division or lacking the experience to cope with a race pulled apart by two front runners.

Thanks for highlighting the ante post prices KB.

[Quevega]

I would be wary of taking the current Arc prices. I think ground is very important to the winner and you will need a bit of luck to get no worse than good ground on Arc day. Although she was hugely impressive I will stick with my pre-race thought that she beat two horses who are better at 1m2f. The rest of them were either second division or lacking the experience to cope with a race pulled apart by two front runners.

Love is not ground dependent and clearly stays well and has speed.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Love is not ground dependent and clearly stays well and has speed.

Her action looks very much like she will be better on good ground, well it does to my eyes.

[Quevega]

Her action looks very much like she will be better on good ground, well it does to my eyes.

They all go better on good ground.
Nothing in her breeding suggests anything other than she will stay and go on most ground.
Her action looks fine.

[Kevloaf]

Ghaiyyath 25/1
Frankly Darling 25/1
Love 20/1
Mogul 33/1
Russian Emperor 33/1
English King 25/1

All added.


Let's hope at least 1 of these 6 shorten dramatically


I may well chance Victor Ludorum with WH whilst they're 25/1 before he runs on Sunday in the Prix du Jockey Club.... he's fav for that currently at 9/4

Cashed out all 3 from the Derby for 95% - no need to be on any of them now. (English King, Mogul and Russian Emperor)
Added to cashed out Frankly Darling for 75% its....

Total loss of -0.8 points


Left with Love at 20/1 (1.25 pts e/w)




Ghaiyyath at 25/1 still to run tomorrow.



Quite pleased with the plan overall. Could have gone better I suppose but we'll see where we are this time tomorrow.

[kinloch brae]

Thanks for highlighting the ante post prices KB.

I am not sure what you are giving me credit for as I don't deserve any for your 20/1 Love. Although I was quibbling the 8/1 I would be quite happy with 20/1.