The Derby 2020

[Stormy Antarctic]

Just take a look at Vatican City’s pedigree. Jeez. He’s born to be good. Though perhaps a mile might be his bag.

[charlie]

Mohican Heights @ 25/1 EW

In a wide open Derby I think he represents decent each way value.

I was impressed with his run in the King Edward Stakes. Held up, left with loads to do then stayed on gamely. Expect him to improve for the run, and he will stay all day which is still a big question for others more prominent in the market.

[ComplyOrDie]

Just take a look at Vatican City’s pedigree. Jeez. He’s born to be good. Though perhaps a mile might be his bag.

Yes, he is, which is why I backed him (and put him up on the forum) in the Irish 2k Guineas only to be dicked by the his own teams game of trying to stop Siskin

Have doubts about the trip for the Derby but wouldn't be a big shock if he went on to win.

[Kevloaf]

A few early thoughts on the top of the market.....


English King (11/4) is easy to look past now he's favourite isn't he? Won the Derby Trial at Lingfield beating Berkshire Rocco, but Berkshire Rocco got beaten by Santiago (albeit over further)

Santiago led home a 1-2-3-4 in the Irish Derby for Aidan O'Brien, and you'd assume Aidan is pretty confident he has at least one better than Santiago to have aimed at The Derby?

That's a very loose look at the form obviously, and English King won very easily against Berkshire Rocco so I wouldn't be laying English King - but it's at least easier to oppose him.

Kameko (4/1) although an each way price, isn't an each way horse based on the breeding? If he gets the trip he's got the best form in the race based on his 2000 Guineas win. I can't imagine him staying on intop the places... he'll either be winning well or fading away.

Mogul (5/1) can not be good value however I try and cut it. Ryan Moore on indicates he's the Ballydoyle no.1 but I'm not a believer that Ryan Moore 'picks' them, and I think the decision has been made that he'll ride him, so the price is shorter than it should be (true of all Moore's mounts). Mogul way beaten comfortably by Kameko in the Guineas, and has had a poor run since, and is only 1 point bigger. Very, very easy to overlook as a bet.

Russian Emperor (7/1) is the one I like the most at the head of the betting. I think the Hampton Court was quite strong, there were a lot of well fancied horses in it. Russian Emperor was so strong, and I am pretty sure the extra 2f will suit as I think he could end up a St Leger horse too. Seamie won last year and has a cracking chance to follow up. I definitely see Russian Emperor as a 'solid' looking each way bet too, much moreso than the two mentioned above.

Vatican City (10/1) is unexposed really and I can't decide how the step up in trip will help him. I haven't properly looked yet back at the Siskin race, but I don't remember thinking anything was screaming out for a step up - so whilst I'm not against him at all, I'm not drawn to him at this stage either.


Will look at the rest later.

[jack1092]

Mohican Heights @ 25/1 EW

In a wide open Derby I think he represents decent each way value.

I was impressed with his run in the King Edward Stakes. Held up, left with loads to do then stayed on gamely. Expect him to improve for the run, and he will stay all day which is still a big question for others more prominent in the market.

On this too! Put him up on TRF as an eyecatcher after Ascot. Nice price still too.

[Quevega]

Can't really see why Mohican Heights would beat Pyledriver myself and he's available at 16-1.
Mogul is more difficult to weigh up due to connections.
Reminds me of the way Japan was treated last year.
Ended up probably their best but still not quite at his best for the Derby.
but it is July now.
And all of O'briens horses would concern me.

[jack1092]

Can't really see why Mohican Heights would beat Pyledriver myself and he's available at 16-1.
Mogul is more difficult to weigh up due to connections.
Reminds me of the way Japan was treated last year.
Ended up probably their best but still not quite at his best for the Derby.
but it is July now.
And all of O'briens horses would concern me.

Why not?

What is the difference in this instance? Simcock couldn't buy a winner early doors and was very open with the fact his were needing the runs. Same as Mogul nah? Wasn't completely beaten up + ran on nicely. Completely unexposed?

[Quevega]

Why not?

What is the difference in this instance? Simcock couldn't buy a winner early doors and was very open with the fact his were needing the runs. Same as Mogul nah? Wasn't completely beaten up + ran on nicely. Completely unexposed?

Mohican Heights quite obviously does not have the same potential to win the Derby as Mogul.

Personally Don't like the needed the run excuse, although it is clear that many horses improve as the season progresses and they gain more experience and strength etc.

Pyledriver ran upsides Mohican and skipped into a good position on the bend with little fuss as others were being ridden.
He then cruised to the front on the bridle and barely had to be shaken up to win. He showed good tactical speed and a relaxed attitude which should bode well for the Derby itself.

You can guess on the improvement or not that horses may show next time but on that race alone and given the prices available then Pyledriver looks the more obvious one to take from that race.

He's as likely to improve for his third run of his three year old career as the others for their second.

[Quevega]

But as you say.

Why Not ?

it's got a chance and it would be nice to see a trainer like Simcock win this Derby.

[charlie]

Can't really see why Mohican Heights would beat Pyledriver myself and he's available at 16-1.
Mogul is more difficult to weigh up due to connections.
Reminds me of the way Japan was treated last year.
Ended up probably their best but still not quite at his best for the Derby.
but it is July now.
And all of O'briens horses would concern me.

I don't think it requires a wild imagine to look beyond the bare result.

Pyledriver went into Royal Ascot with a run under his belt, where he lost at Kempton to a horse Mohican Heights has accounted for (outstayed Berlin Tango well). Simcock's have been crying out for a run, so I expect Mohican Heights to come on from the King Edward Stakes.

Re Ascot, take nothing away from Pyledriver. Crept up the inner, space opened up as he turned in, and he capitalised to win well. Mohican Heights was dropped out the back, last turning in, pushed wide, met traffic, came round runners (inc Mogul) and stayed on well. Visually he was the one to take out of the race IMO. It took him a while to get going but he finished off strongly. There's hardly a gulf in price with Pyledriver 16's and Mohican 25's (PP & BF cut to 16), but I just think MH represents better EW value as he has more improvement in him IMO, and I have no doubt he will stay all day.

[jack1092]

Mohican Heights quite obviously does not have the same potential to win the Derby as Mogul.

Personally Don't like the needed the run excuse, although it is clear that many horses improve as the season progresses and they gain more experience and strength etc.

Pyledriver ran upsides Mohican and skipped into a good position on the bend with little fuss as others were being ridden.
He then cruised to the front on the bridle and barely had to be shaken up to win. He showed good tactical speed and a relaxed attitude which should bode well for the Derby itself.

You can guess on the improvement or not that horses may show next time but on that race alone and given the prices available then Pyledriver looks the more obvious one to take from that race.

He's as likely to improve for his third run of his three year old career as the others for their second.

.

The connections obviously are important and he's carried a huge reputation. However, he's not really done much to me that's proven he's going to live up to it.
He could improve with age like Japan and a trip. He's priced like he already has though and Ascot wasn't great at all even if needing the run. You don't like the "needed the run excuse" but Mogul is priced on that basis?

Beating Sinawaan who won a g3 last night (average g3 btw) and Agitare close in 3rd who can't win a race. His g1 run in Newc, he was beside Year of the Tiger..

Watch Mogul bolt up now

[Quevega]

If any of them from that race come on for the run as well as Arthurs Kingdom then they've all got no chance

Imagination and how much improvement any given horse may or may not show at Epsom aside.
My original point was that based on that trial race and the prices right now.
Pyledriver looks the most attractive proposition to me.

2 year old mile form vs this season at further is hard to gauge.
The loss (when badly positioned) to Berlin Tango this season probably reads better than the 2 year old race you've mentioned given Berlin Tango's next run at Ascot.

[Quevega]

.

The connections obviously are important and he's carried a huge reputation. However, he's not really done much to me that's proven he's going to live up to it.
He could improve with age like Japan and a trip. He's priced like he already has though and Ascot wasn't great at all even if needing the run. You don't like the "needed the run excuse" but Mogul is priced on that basis?

Beating Sinawaan who won a g3 last night (average g3 btw) and Agitare close in 3rd who can't win a race. His g1 run in Newc, he was beside Year of the Tiger..

Watch Mogul bolt up now

I'm no fan of Mogul or his price and hope he's shitter than they think he is

But you simply have to respect the trainer's record and the breeding of all his entries.
Coolmore is a Derby winning machine.

[Kevloaf]

365 have pushed Amhran Na Bhfiann out to 100/1 (means The Soldier's Song if google is correct)

100/1 for a Coolmore horse in The Derby?
4 places?
BOG?
Buick booked, he's in good form.
17 runners now, 2 days to go?


He's a maiden still, but only beaten 3L by Tiger Moth who on his next run was 2nd by a Head in the Irish Derby.

If he improved as much as Tiger Moth did from first run this season, would being 3L worse than Santiago/Tiger Moth put him a 100/1 shot?

Loads of things need to go right and it's reliant on a magical unseen amount of improvement coming, but....

I'm going to have a 0.25pt e/w bet on....

[Quevega]

365 have pushed Amhran Na Bhfiann out to 100/1 (means The Soldier's Song if google is correct)

100/1 for a Coolmore horse in The Derby?
4 places?
BOG?
Buick booked, he's in good form.
17 runners now, 2 days to go?


He's a maiden still, but only beaten 3L by Tiger Moth who on his next run was 2nd by a Head in the Irish Derby.

If he improved as much as Tiger Moth did from first run this season, would being 3L worse than Santiago/Tiger Moth put him a 100/1 shot?

Loads of things need to go right and it's reliant on a magical unseen amount of improvement coming, but....

I'm going to have a 0.25pt e/w bet on....

I took 110-1 other night on betfair for this, just 0.5pt.
Not like it's happened before has it ?
0.5pt ew also for me.