The Derby 2020

[charlie]

Is anyone else a fan of Pyledriver?

Having watched the King Edward a few times this morning, he was easily the best horse in the race. He traveled sweetly all the way round and got better the further he went.

It's mind boggling to me that he is now 3 times the price of Mogul. 4 places are available and, with two of the market favourites getting a poor draw, I'm thinking of making him a maximum each way bet.

I do Faugheen_Machine. Looking at the top half of the market Pyledriver & Mohican Heights are the only two that interest me at the prices.

English King is far too short IMO. Kameko is priced up as if he will stay when I’m not sure he will. Same can be said for Vatican City. Mogul’s price is laughably short IMO. Russian Emperor is interesting, but still short enough, and thought it was telling Ryan Moore chose Mogul. Highland Chief should be 25/33’s, and were it not for well known tipsters pushing him into 16’s that’s where he’d be.

Then you have Pyledriver @ 16’s and Mohican Heights @ 25’s, and I think they represent decent EW value, especially in such an open year.

For me, the eye catcher from the King Edward was Mohican Heights. Pyledriver got the dream ride up the inner, and a clear run turning in. The race turned into a bit of sprint which favoured him. He was the most forward and his turn of foot won the day. Arthurs Kingdom has been soundly beaten since, and both Mohican Heights and Mogul will come on significantly for their first run. Important to stress that point - Mogul looked fatter than the proverbial pig, and Simcock’s have all desperately needed their first run big time.

The response from Pyledrivers’ connections post Ascot was ‘I suppose we will have to think about the Derby’, as opposed to that having always been the plan. I suspect that David and the owners who parted with £520k for Mohican Heights were quietly pleased with his Ascot run with a view to this, and in a strongly-run-race I think it will suit Mohican Heights more than it will Pyledriver, so that makes them both the EW plays for me at the current stage.

[Kevloaf]

Agree completely Kev. How many places did you take?

Russian Emperor

4 places

13/2


1.5 pts e/w


I will back him again if he goes to 7/1
Or possibly 5 places at 6/1 if that appears between now and the off.


I may even take 2 places, but will hold on now until the morning as I've gotten waylaid with Arc bets

[Kevloaf]

English King is far too short IMO. Kameko is priced up as if he will stay when I’m not sure he will. Same can be said for Vatican City. Mogul’s price is laughably short IMO. Russian Emperor is interesting, but still short enough, and thought it was telling Ryan Moore chose Mogul.

Agree with Pyledriver...

Just on the bit I've made bold.... I don't believe Ryan Moore has 'chosen' to ride Mogul. I am pretty sure they'll have decided it for him. Granted he'd ridden Mogul and Russian Emperor, but Seamie had been on Russian Emperor for all 3 of his starts prior to Royal Ascot and he wasn't at Royal Ascot.

P.Beggy had been on Vatican City and finished 2nd behind Siskin on last run, so makes sense they've kept them together.

Leaving it logical to keep Moore on Mogul, as Mogul has only been rideen by Ryan and Donnacha (who obviously isn't riding anymore).




So this "choice" that Ryan had to make, doesn't speak volumes to me, the jockey bookings are very, very logical.


There seems to have been a made-up theory that Mogul "must be showing loads at home"... I've not heard any connections say that yet, so the price is assuming a helluva lot!



For me that means the fact Mogul is shorter in price is 100% incorrect. Between the two, I would back Russian Emperor every time. If Mogul was a bigger price I'd definitely be interested still (because you have to be given connections) and I am not saying for a second he can't win.... but I just believe the price is artificial and based on theories that can easily be debunked.

[charlie]

I don't believe Ryan Moore has 'chosen' to ride Mogul.[/B]

Yeh that was fairly assumptive from me, they seem perfectly logical in the ways you've explained

[Quevega]

I like Russian Emperor and hope he wins as he's my best result aside from the 100-1 shot Amrhan something.

But, whilst he looks a thorough stayer, he doesn't strike me as a classy Derby type winner, as he comes off the bridle plenty early enough.
However, he could easily grind them down if they go too quick/early for home, and if he hits the front he may also be hard to pass.

I actually think Kameko & English King are the two most likely (shock) and they are much more travelly types with what looks like another gear.

I'm not sure Pyledriver has enough class as these two but was impressive last time.

I think Charlie is right about the pace of the race last time and it may have turned into a bit of a sprint finish, but the dream run on the inside was available for anyone if they had the tactical speed. Just before the bend the jockey asks him to move and he very quickly makes up a few lengths to sit in behind the front two, and probably hits the front a bit early as the gap opens and all the rest are rowing.

The one indeterminable thing with the Derby, as always, is the improvement some will show for the experience they have gained and the training they are receiving, and obviously the specific conditions of the race itself, as a test of a throughbred.

Which makes all the O'Brien runners, particularly Mogul & Vatican City, big dangers.

Mogul, on what we've seen should not be good enough.

Vatican City should not be able to outstay any of these on breeding, and I'm not sure of the form of the Irish Guineas.

Many think it's strong but it's not proven just yet. And whilst Siskin looked very smart indeed, it also looked 'suspiciously' good to the eye, the way he kicked clear from a bunch of them.

Vatican City ran on well enough but it was hardly mind boggling. Certainly nowhere near as eyecatching as Dawn Patrol was the other day.

I can see myself having another bet on Kameko or English King on the day but it may be in a saver double with Love.

I'm down 1.5 pts so far, but now have...

English King 2pt 16-1
Kameko 2pt 14-1
Russian Emperor 1pt 45-1
Pyeldriver 1pt 22-1
Amrhan thingy 0.5pt 110-1 & 0.5pt ew 100-1

Frankly Darling 1pt 33-1
Ennistymon 2pt 10-1

The Love & Mogul saver double may also be on the cards.

[Kevloaf]

I'm down 1.5 pts so far, but now have...

English King 2pt 16-1
Kameko 2pt 14-1
Russian Emperor 1pt 45-1
Pyeldriver 1pt 22-1
Amrhan thingy 0.5pt 110-1 & 0.5pt ew 100-1

Frankly Darling 1pt 33-1
Ennistymon 2pt 10-1

The Love & Mogul saver double may also be on the cards.

Pfft.
That ends my interest in these classics.

Very impressive.

[Istabraq]

I’m struggling to have a strong view for this years renewal and with the most obvious winners boxed inside for me it throws it even more wide open that it already was.

Serpentine clearly come on from his 2yo form and the form of his maiden win last week reads well with the runner up having form with the unlucky Irish Derby runner up. 25/1 might look a silly price, though his inexperience and lack of group form could easily see him tailed off at Tattenham Corner.
Max Vega too bad to be true last time but that came on the AW and some horses just don’t like certain surfaces, 40/1 is a price I don’t mind throwing a few quid at.

Good luck all

[ComplyOrDie]

English King 2pt 16-1
Kameko 2pt 14-1
Russian Emperor 1pt 45-1
Pyeldriver 1pt 22-1
Amrhan thingy 0.5pt 110-1 & 0.5pt ew 100-1

Nice hand that Q. I think many of us would take that on here. Mine is as follows.

Khalifa Sat 33/1 E/W
Serpentine 25/1 E/W
Russian Emperor 7/1 E/W

You clearly done your homework, getting on at them prices, my first bet in the race was when Marquand was announced to be riding Khalifa Sat, so only last week I think

[Quevega]

Pfft.
That ends my interest in these classics.

Very impressive.

If it goes anything like Ascot then there's plenty of room for it to go tits up

I'll be spending the next 24 hours battling with myself whether to defend or attack.
It'll likely depend on prices, but I'd be tempted to have a proper bet with English King/Kameko & or Frankly Darling.

And then there's the Eclipse ??
now that Lord North is not declared it shapes like a race I like. A coin toss but with odds favouring the one over the other.
I think 5/2 or bigger Ghaiyyath and I'm gonna have a decent bet.

I actually see the Oaks in a very similar way - the first two in the betting - bar the rest.

These 'match ups' are ideal when you fancy the bigger priced of the two (for whatever reason).

[Quevega]

Nice hand that Q. I think many of use would take that on here. Mine is as follows.

Khalifa Sat 33/1 E/W
Serpentine 25/1 E/W
Russian Emperor 7/1 E/W

You clearly done your homework, getting on at them prices, my first bet in the race was when Marquand was announced to be riding Khalifa Sat, so only last week I think

It was luck and habit.

I backed Kameko before the Guineas as I also had 8pts on Quadrilteral antepost at 4-1 (for 1000 guineas) but spotted Kameko was best priced for the Derby with 365 (nearest other price was 10's and 8's general) so off the back of remembering his Racing Post trophy win I backed it then.

Russian Emperor was favourite for Derrinstown so took the prices boosted before he ran there.

English King was the one I should have got at bigger, but the Lingfield Derby trial looked a bit MEH so didn't take the 50's prior to the race, even when he was heavily backed during the week for the trial. But 365 left 16's up for a minute or two after he won so well.

Frankly Darling was off the back of the Warrior mentioning him being sent to Newcastle for the first meeting after lockdown, and then coming across the Longshot article after looking into him.

Just fortunate that they have all enhanced their credentials since then.

[ComplyOrDie]

It was luck and habit.

I backed Kameko before the Guineas as I also had 8pts on Quadrilteral antepost at 4-1 (for 1000 guineas) but spotted Kameko was best priced for the Derby with 365 (nearest other price was 10's and 8's general) so off the back of remembering his Racing Post trophy win I backed it then.

Russian Emperor was favourite for Derrinstown so took the prices boosted before he ran there.

English King was the one I should have got at bigger, but the Lingfield Derby trial looked a bit MEH so didn't take the 50's prior to the race, even when he was heavily backed during the week for the trial. But 365 left 16's up for a minute or two after he won so well.

Frankly Darling was off the back of the Warrior mentioning him being sent to Newcastle for the first meeting after lockdown, and then coming across the Longshot article after looking into him.

Just fortunate that they have all enhanced their credentials since then.

Fair play Q, either way, a cracking spot to be in

[Spectre]

I'm not a big flat racing fan but I do take an interest in the classics, or should I say potential Triumph Hurdle horses.

Anyway, I'm not convinced by any at the head of the market and I've focused further down with the following antepost bets:

Mohican Heights 25/1
Pyledriver 20/1
Max Vega 50/1

It's hard to go into a Derby without an Aiden O'Brien horse onside, but none of his five have convinced for varying reasons, or don't offer any kind of value. If I were pressed for one O'Brien horse it would definitely be Mogul though. It's a leap of faith that he's improved sufficiently since Ascot, and while his draw is off-putting, it's not a deal-breaker. If I can see in the preliminaries that O'Brien has got all that condition off I may back him then.

[Saxon Warrior]

Each Way Extra is available now for 365:

Anything standout?

Serpentine, for me, is the best of the longer prices.

[Quevega]

Question.
Of the two worst draws statistically.
Who will ride the better race.
Dettori or Moore.

I'd say Dettori will make more of an effort early to get a better position at the top of the hill, and Moore will let the horse find his own way.
Mogul will need to be the business I reckon, as he may have to come from a way back.
However, the oace they go may play into a closers hands so Moore could find that things drop his way.
He'll still have to be very good though if he doesn't make any efforts from the stalls.
Obviously you don't want to do too much early on either.

Glad I'm not a jockey and can just comment on them.

[Quevega]

Serpentine, for me, is the best of the longer prices.

25-1 with skybet still and they are offering money back on this race for a place 2.3.4
For a tenner.