Royal Ascot 2020

[RAMRUMA]

Why isn't Crowley on Daarik in the first?

[YoungHustler]

These are the darts I'm throwing on day 1.

1.50 - Kaesao/Hey Jonesy
2.20 - Circus Maximus/Mohaather/Fox Chairman
3.35 - Battaash
4.10 - Queen Power
4.40 - Land Of Oz/Summer Moon

I was lucky enough to get on Battaash at 3s and have 3pts on him(very big bet for me) and multiple accas so really hoping he can get my week off to a good start. Of the others, I'm most keen on Land Of Oz. His form last year was good and I'm glad he disappointed in the Caesarewitch(possibly due to soft gound, end of hard season?) as it means he's still on a low mark and decent price IMO, he's had a prep run and Prescott's form is not too bad. I think he should be favourite and it would not surprise me if money comes for him. I've got to also have Summer Moon

[Kevloaf]

Why isn't Crowley on Daarik in the first?

Not sure if he gets the choice.

Detorri is an upgrade though.

Perhaps he did get the choice and Motakhayyel is a good bet

[Stormy Antarctic]

I’ll be having a bet on the Wednesday on Floating Artist again. He’s in the 1mile6 handicap (copper horse handicap)
He’s carrying a lot of weight against a few unexposed types but he’s already won at the course. His recent run came in a race too short for him but it will have blown away the cobwebs. The step up in trip at ascot is massively in his favour and I hope he’s a nice EW price after his finishing position lto.

[Stormy Antarctic]

16/1 with Hills. I think that’s good value

[mayo]

Disappointed that BE hasn't got in. I assumed he had just sneaked in at the bottom. He's no 20/1 poke if he runs but that seems unlikely now.

Jocked up Wednesday now. Still a bet ?

[Faugheen_Machine]

Jocked up Wednesday now. Still a bet ?

I'd have made him a strong bet on the Tuesday. Not sure he's as good over a mile so it'll be a smaller bet if I decide to back him on the Wednesday.

[Saxon Warrior]

There was a lot of talk about the 2yo nominations for trainers for Royal Ascot, when the season started two weeks ago, but I have considered a different angle given the squashed preparation time for this years Royal meeting.

I looked at the Newmarket Guineas Festival weekend last weekend, and also the other meetings, across the Saturday and Sunday that had Class 2 and Class 3 Handicap races.

The key reason for doing this, is that:-
Saturday 6th June meetings - horses had their ratings revised on Tuesday by the UK handicapper
Sunday June 7th meetings - horses have not had their handicap ratings revised, until next Tuesday, and all Sunday 7th June's performers, going on to run in the Royal Ascot handicaps will run off their prior ratings unless they won last Sunday, where they will carry a 5lb penalty, at Royal Ascot

In the Class 2 and 3 handicaps, run on Saturday 6th June, horses that won well (by a length or more, and not a tight grouped finish) had their weights increased by 6lb, 7lb, 8lb, 8lb and 11lb.

A runner-up close up to these had approx a 4lb handicap rise.
Which makes sense.

Looking at Sunday 7th June Class 2 and Class 3 Handicaps races run,I looked for horses that won well enough to outrun a 5lb penalty, and runners-up that were close up who could have at least a 4lb advantage, from not having a weight revision for their performance on the day.

The shortlist I have made is very interesting, and I will use it for some multi-bets, and win singles at Royal Ascot.

OUZO - 7/1 - Silver Royal Hunt Cup (WED)

BELL ROCK - 10/1 - Royal Hunt Cup (WED)

ARTHURIAN FABLE - 14/1 - King George V 12F 3yo Handicap (WED)

GLOBAL STORM - 11/1 - Golden Gates 10F 3yo Handicap (THU)

BABBO'S BOY - 14/1 - Duke of Edinburgh 12F Handicap (FRI)


Looking at races after Sunday 7th June, one other to check out, regarding a 5lb Ascot penalty, that ran on June 9th, that I would add to the shortlist is:

DECLARED INTEREST - 10/1 (Betfair Sports) Sandringham Fillies 8F Handicap (THU)

‐----‐--------------------------

Running through each one:
As usual videos of the races are a big help, as well as videos of their prior form

BELL ROCK and OUZO
Newmarket Sunday 7th June
Class 2 8F handicap
This is the race that started this betting angle, as Ouzo (OR 91) was chased down by Bell Rock (98), and pulled well clear of the rest by 3&1/2 lengths and more.

Ouzo can run off the same mark at Royal Ascot in the Silver Royal Hunt Cup and Bell Rock will carry a 5lb penalty in the Royal Hunt Cup.

Both are in the final decs now, and will run on Wednesday, and given the manner of their domination of the Class 2 at Newmarket then I expect both to go up by 6lb to 10lb when the handicapper awards new ratings on Tuesday.

Ouzo has the most in hand at Royal Ascot as he has no penalty, and runs in the lesser race. He was beaten a Neck last week (progressive last term, looked all over the winner 1f out, but couldn't repel the late surge of Bell Rock)

Trained by Richard Hannon and ridden by Ryan Moore, I think he has 6lb in hand due to running last Sunday, rather than running the day before.

Bell Rock trained by Andrew Balding and ridden by Oisin Murphy was a potential group horse last year, he ran in the listed Heron Stakes and the Group 1 St James Palace Stakes, before drawing stumps for the season after the Newmarket July meeting.

Gelded since, he stepped forward by around 10lb, when pulling clear of the field when chasing down Ouzo last week, and this Kingman gelding (Dam a half-sister to Speciosa, was placed in US graded races) will relish a fast Mile at Ascot, before potentially stepping up in trip.


GLOBAL STORM & ARTHURIAN FABLE
Newmarket Sunday 7th June
Class 3 10F handicap
A race dominated by Global Storm (OR 87) going clear 2F out, and then closed down in the final furlong, winning cosily, by a Short Head from Arthurian Flame (OR 81). The rest easily beaten off by 3 lengths and shorter priced runners trained by Balding and Appleby followed them home, in 3rd and 4th.

Global Storm's dam is a half-sister to a Kentucky Derby winner, had improving form (2231) as a 2yo, culminating in a 9F win, before stepping up his RPR by 8lb when winning last week. 10F Looked ideal, and Godolphin usually have strong chances in most mid-distance Royal meeting handicaps. He looks capable of running well with a 5lb penalty.

Arthurian Flame's back form is perhaps even more interesting, and has already been declared to step up in trip in Wednesday's 3yo 12F Handicap.

He can run without reassessment, and given he beat everything else easily on 1000 Guineas day, he could easily be given a 5lb or 6lb weight adjustment from his current 81 rating.

Trained by Brian Meehan with 3 runs all at grade 1 tracks as a juvenile, Sandown then twice on Newmarkets Rowley course, (form 032-) he ran staying on from towards the rear to finish 2nd over 8F to the classy looking Godolphin filly White Moonstone second time out.

This was followed by a similar running style, over 10F when passing the whole field apart from runaway winner Brentford Hope, who was fancied (12/1 and 10/1 shot) for the Irish Derby before a setback last week.

He stayed on again from the rear on his seasonal debut last week, and looked due for a step up to 12F.
81 looks a low rating after last weeks performance.

Both these horses now run in different races, and have good chances given the handicapper hasnt had chance to reassess them.


BABBO'S BOY
Haydock Sunday 7th June
Gelded, first time blinkers and a switch mid-May from Michael Bell to Ralph Beckett, led to a step up in form for this horse.

He posted a career best effort when hosing up over 10F by 3 lengths (led over 1f out, soon clear, pushed out) from better fancied Gosden, Haggas and Mark Johnston horses.

Sure to be raised by more than 5lb when reassessed, but can run on Friday over 12F with a 5lb penalty.


DECLARED INTEREST
Chelmsford Tuesday 9th June (Class 4 handicap)
Ralph Beckett trained, a Declaration of War filly out of a half-sister to Group 1 2yo Crowded House.
Had two runs as a juvenile (form 32-) over 7F and 8F at Newbury and Kempton.

Official Rating of 77 was well and truly bettered (RPR rose by 15lbs after the win) when pulling clear of the field over 8F Fillies Handicap from Varian and Gosden fillies.

The runner-up finished well from a wide run when closing to 2 lengths, but the main body of the field was 6 lengths behind the winner.

It seems clear to me that the handicapper would put her up far more than the 5lb penalty he can give her in the Sandringham Fillies Handicap on Thursday and she is bottom weight in the 23 entries (23 max field) and even with a 5lb penalty, carries less weight than all but 4 or 5 of the declared runners, with 8st 2lbs allotted.

[Outlaw]

That Arthurian Fable looks like he will improve further for extra distance and race fitness seems a big advantage at present with so many reappearing inside 10days and doing well, looks an interesting shout Saxon.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Great information SW and very interesting, as ever

[Saxon Warrior]

Great information SW and very interesting, as ever

Cheers FM.
It dawned on me that the compressed calendar meant the trainers that wanted to run their horses first, to see if their horses were worthy of a handicap entry at Royal Ascot were better off running on Sunday June 7th (or later) and getting 5lbs penalty for winning or no weight rise, for a close up second.

My main focus was on Class 2 & 3 handicaps on Sunday 7th June, and this list of horses are fit and better than their ratings, based on last weekends excellent runs.

There may be better handicapped horses in their races, or they may not back-up one quick run after their runs last week, but it's an angle I'm keen to run with - as this is probably the only year so many Class 2s and 3s handicaps were run on the Sunday nine days before Royal Ascot.

Let's face it normally English Sunday racing is usually pants, and it's a one-off that Newmarket Guineas meeting was rammed full of that type of race on a Sunday close to Royal Ascot and the decs and weights being announced.

[Quevega]

Excellent spot Saxon.
I'd not clicked about the quirk of the sunday races, but having spent all today studying wednesdays' Ascot card and placing some bets I landed on similar animals due to the form and lack of penalties.
Been through Tuesday too but not backed as many yet for some reason.

So far my bets are as follows.

TUE

Frankly Darling & Mogul 2pt double

2-25 Passion 1pt 10-1

3-35 Equilateral 1pt 14-1

4-10 Wasmya 2pt 10-1

WED

1-15 Maydanny 2pt 10-1
Ouzo 2pt 7-1

1-50 First receiver 2pt 11/4

2-25 Athurian flame 3pt 15-1

3-00 Mehdaayih 2pt 12-1

3-35 Bell rock 2pt 10-1

4-10 Mighty gurkha 2pt 11-1

4-40 Eddystone rock 1pt 20-1

Had my eye on one or two more for the 2-25 but their form wasn't franked much today so have left other bets for now.

[ComplyOrDie]

Yeah, they are cracking spots and information SW

As always, really good from you

[Saxon Warrior]

It all started as a possible plan, when I went to see what the handicapper had raised Secret Advisor by after his close second behind Dashing Willoughby at Newmarket on Sunday 7th June.

Because it was a Sunday they dont check and amend ratings until 9 days later.

That's when I thought that possible Royal Ascot handicap runners may have been targetted at Sunday 7th June's races, and these then emerged as the Ascot weights came out, then the Final decs.

I would have COLLIDE and LAND OF OZ in a similar way too, if the race they were 1st and 2nd in, hadnt had others close up behind them.

They have entries in different Royal Ascot races, and I reckon they both have good chances based on their prep run a week ago.

Maybe not potentially as much in hand as the six in my list though.

[WADDY]

I will definitely keep an eye on those six Saxon. Interesting punt happening on Passion in the Ribblesdale. I can't see past Frankly Darling personally, done the Mogul double as well. Pays about 4-1.