Epsom Derby 2021

[Saxon Warrior]

Well lough derg finished last so not a good start

I am not so sure Lough Derg losing makes much difference to Ballydoyles Derby plans.

After all, MacSwiney was beaten by Lough Derg in the same formlines, and he won the Irish 2000 Guineas, boosting the form.

Its all swings and roundabouts, unless several horses all win next time out from one race.

If Bolshoi Ballet is their only runner from six 5-Day entries, that’s a big statement, that he is expected to be good enough to win, without any help from pacemakers etc.

The Derby is the pinnacle for Coolmore’s racing and breeding plans so to go with only one runner, as the even money favourite, is as confident a statement as they could give us.

The only dark cloud pre-race would be if he gets drawn in stall one tomorrow.

[FinalFurlong91]

Not sure you can claim mac swiney as a form boost

Its well known he is useless on anything other than deep ground

He was also sick

Iv added youth spirit at 50.0 to mohaafeth and lone eagle as my ones against the field

Gl all

Especially if you are sitting on some tasty tickets on bolshoi ballet

Always nice to land a big priced ante post one that goes off short priced fav

Then when someone who's backed it at evs asks you if you backed it you show them your 33s ticket haha

[Lobos]

Agree that It is very, very unusual for AOB to go with the one. He must be supremly confident.

[Saxon Warrior]

It was a form boost as much as Lough Derg’s wasn’t.

A long time ago they built an Epsom/Tattenham Corner gallop at Ballydoyle - that helps to explain what the Derby means to them.

To go from a block entry of 9 out of 29 last weekend, to just one, would say more than the Derrinstown’s also-ran’s form.

I do love to see a real top class horse win the classics, and it’s been a few years since one won the Derby.

Hope we all see one on Saturday.

Good Luck FJ forumites.

[Saxon Warrior]

Iv added youth spirit at 50.0 to mohaafeth and lone eagle as my ones against the field

Gl all

Especially if you are sitting on some tasty tickets on bolshoi ballet

Always nice to land a big priced ante post one that goes off short priced fav

I’ve got small bets at big odds on Youth Spirit , and Third Realm.

My Bolshoi Ballet 2pt bet would top those, but I would be happy to collect on any of them.

Would be great to see a top class performance from the winner, whoever he is.

[Istabraq]

I’ve been playing Adayar and One Ruler who I think has been totally forgotten.
The AOB exodus has probably killed the hope of any 5/6 places being offered, every chance 4 places will appear after tomorrows decs but I’ve secured upwards of 33s on both so have the price.
All eyes on the draw...

[jack1092]

[SIZE=14px]It was a form boost as much as Lough Derg’s wasn’t.

/SIZE]

Lough Derg has been beaten by him twice though and Mac Swiney is a different horse on soft, and as FF91 says he wasn't well after.

Mac Swiney to my mind is no form boost.

Lough Derg to me isn't ideal for the form but he was well beaten by BB so it's not overly concerning.

[Saxon Warrior]

▪︎ Adayar
▪︎ Bolshoi Ballet
▪︎ Gear Up
▪︎ Hurricane Lane
▪︎ John Leeper
▪︎ Mac Swiney
▪︎ Mohaafeth
▪︎ Mojo Star
▪︎ One Ruler
▪︎ Southern Lights
▪︎ Third Realm
▪︎ Youth Spirit

12 runners

The Ballydoyle plan to run one in the Derby is on.

The first time for 17 years they have only a single horse in the race.

[That Horse]

As few as 12 running would limit the impact of any draw bias, no real excuses for any of them seeing as there won't be a wall of AOB runners blocking the way

[Saxon Warrior]

▪︎ Adayar
▪︎ Bolshoi Ballet
▪︎ Gear Up
▪︎ Hurricane Lane
▪︎ John Leeper
▪︎ Mac Swiney
▪︎ Mohaafeth
▪︎ Mojo Star
▪︎ One Ruler
▪︎ Southern Lights
▪︎ Third Realm
▪︎ Youth Spirit

12 runners

The Ballydoyle plan to run one in the Derby is on.

The first time for 17 years they have only a single horse in the race.

Adayar - Stall 1
Third Realm - Stall 2
Southern Lights - Stall 3
Mohaafeth - Stall 4
Hurricane Lane - Stall 5
Gear Up - Stall 6
Youth Spirit - Stall 7
MacSwiney - Stall 8
Bolshoi Ballet - Stall 9
Mojo Star - Stall 10
One Ruler - Stall 11
John Leeper - Stall 12

[Saxon Warrior]

As few as 12 running would limit the impact of any draw bias, no real excuses for any of them seeing as there won't be a wall of AOB runners blocking the way

It dawned on me, as soon as I heard the one runner theory, that they were cutting down on traffic problems, by removing five horses, if they had one horse that is their confident selection, over their other stable runners.

[That Horse]

My 3 antepost selections left standing all conveniently lined up beside each other; southern lights, Mohaafeth, hurricane lane.

I think I'll add youth spirit to that quota when each way opens up on Betfair exchange.

Don't know why but I'm really looking forward to this year's Derby more so than in previous years. Probably mainly because I'll have covered a 3rd of the field and even if they all get chinned, my losses won't be that bad haha! Should have paid attention to the very first post in this thread though......

[Saxon Warrior]

Only 12 runners, for the ninth time since stalls were introduced in 1967.

Winning stalls in the previous eight races with 12 runners were:'

10, 10, 9, 4, 8, 10, 8, 10.

Draw bias for stalls 8, 9, 10, on that small sample.

Runners in those stalls this time are:-

MacSwiney 8
Bolshoi Ballet 9
Mojo Star 10

[Lobos]

Wow, stall 10 won half the races !!

Richard Hannon on Mojo Star

He is a Sea The Stars colt who was second at Newbury on debut last season, I thought that he had won but he was beaten in a photo. He has grown and has done extremely well.

We are going to start him off in a novice race and he could be a very good horse, I hope. He is definitely one of the dark horses for the year. He looks like a champ, is by the right stallion and has got no end of ability.

[Saxon Warrior]

Wow, stall 10 won half the races !!

Richard Hannon on Mojo Star

He is a Sea The Stars colt who was second at Newbury on debut last season, I thought that he had won but he was beaten in a photo. He has grown and has done extremely well.

We are going to start him off in a novice race and he could be a very good horse, I hope. He is definitely one of the dark horses for the year. He looks like a champ, is by the right stallion and has got no end of ability.

Nice quote that, Lobos.