Epsom Derby 2021

[Saxon Warrior]

The Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown this afternoon, is often the earliest trial of Derby prospects for AOB and the other main Irish trainers.

There are often one or two horses that can come out of this race and impact/win the Epsom Derby, and the Irish Derby too.

Those that run well here can often go onto the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial prior to a run at Epsom.

Today it was interesting to see that Aidan had cut his entries down to just two declarations, with the early favourite and stable jockey siding with, BOLSHOI BALLET, who had run three decent races last autumn including a heavy ground slog over 1M2F in a French Grade 1, when finishing a close up fifth beaten just over 2 lengths. Official Rating 108 confirms the quality of the French run just 8 days after winning his maiden
(not ideal for just an 8 day break before a trip to France, but such was the compacted 2yo season last year).

His action on his course maiden win over 8F on better ground last October suggested that the ground would suit today.

In a slow run race, he did well to control the pace up front and lengthen into a winning lead a furlong out.

He looked the part there, breeding is Galileo out of an unraced half-sister to a French Oaks second, and his brother, Southern France stayed 12F “standing on his head”, and he was 2nd in the Queens Vase, and 3rd in the St Leger.

Pre-race as high as 33/1 for the Derby, and Post-race 14/1, cut then to 10/1 in general, & as low as 8/1.
(Some bookies had to cut the horse twice, in quick succession, which could be a good sign that enough people were impressed with him to move the odds twice)


Aidan O’Brien said, after the win: “You’d be delighted with him as he only ran on soft ground (last season) and will have learned a lot today. He’ll probably come back here for the Derrinstown if all goes well with him. He’s straightforward and, while you’re never sure, he should get a mile and a half. He goes to the line well.

“High Definition will go for one of the Derby trials. We didn’t want to give him two runs before the Derby, but we thought this horse would be able for two. He’s in full work and we’re very happy with him.”

The first post to set up this thread is looking better after today’s race......WOOOOOOOOOOSSSSSHHHH

[That Horse]

The first post to set up this thread is looking better after today’s race......WOOOOOOOOOOSSSSSHHHH

Definitely looked good enough to finish 2nd behind whatever this year's O'Brien no hoper is!

Wings of eagles and serpentine say hi.....

In all seriousness, BB looked the dog's bollox and just heard O'Brien wax lyrical about him before the 4:15 at leopardstown on racing TV

[Saxon Warrior]

Definitely looked good enough to finish 2nd behind whatever this year's O'Brien no hoper is!

Wings of eagles and serpentine say hi.....

In all seriousness, BB looked the dog's bollox and just heard O'Brien wax lyrical about him before the 4:15 at leopardstown on racing TV

That’s good.

I backed Serpentine last year, on the Exchanges at around 40/1 after the 48 hour decs (or just before).

Even though I already had English King and one of AOB’s others already (NR - Santiago, I think) I wasn’t comfortable with any of them being “all that”, and went through the form, breeding and videos for the runners, and fell onto Serpentine.

Just after I had completed my decision on him and backed him, my cousin sent me a message asking what I was backing in the Derby.
I said SERPENTINE and told him my reasoning.

He didn’t sound 100% convinced, as AOB had several shorter priced ones, but 10 seconds after he passed the post on Derby Day he was on the phone thanking me profusely for being so wise, and saying how much he had won.

He doesn’t have much money, and likes a flutter, so I was truly happy that he had called me to ask for my thoughts pre-race, then backed him at 25/1, and doubled him with an earlier winner, that he picked himself.

Its stuff like that that makes all the time and effort seeking angles for winners, well and truly worthwhile.

Whether Bolshoi is the boy next month who knows, but I’m hoping he gets there in the form he was today, and with a good stall draw.

Otherwise another Serpentine is on the cards, as you said.

[Sprinter Sacre]

Backed Bolshoi Ballet at 10's and Van Gogh at 12's in Run Wild Fred and Galvin Grand National rollovers - at least I have reason to feel good about one of those after today!

[Saxon Warrior]

Backed Bolshoi Ballet at 10's and Van Gogh at 12's in Run Wild Fred and Galvin Grand National rollovers - at least I have reason to feel good about one of those after today!

I’ve got him at 28/1 with RWF Grand National 50/1

But, strangely overlooked using him with Galvin.

Can back him from the Arc instead and put him with Galvin, I suppose.

[Sprinter Sacre]

I’ve got him at 28/1 with RWF Grand National 50/1

But, strangely overlooked using him with Galvin.

Can back him from the Arc instead and put him with Galvin, I suppose.

I've seen you snagged 28/1 on Bolshoi; very jealous. That bet with RWF could be mega!

I suppose you have Galvin in other rollovers too, though? Could work out fine if BB doesn't deliver.

[FinalFurlong91]

It seems the terrible ante post prices with huge cuts to unrealistic prices has very much carried on from the jumps to the flat

As good as BB was his main rival was a huge drifter and ran poorly all hes beaten is an unfancied stablemate, albeit impressively

Well done anyone sitting on nice prices

But Jesus 7/4 is an awful price, not as bad as the price Santa Barbara was but still can't have him that short at all.

Hes priced up like he's just hacked up in the guineas

[Saxon Warrior]

It seems the terrible ante post prices with huge cuts to unrealistic prices has very much carried on from the jumps to the flat

As good as BB was his main rival was a huge drifter and ran poorly all hes beaten is an unfancied stablemate, albeit impressively

Well done anyone sitting on nice prices

But Jesus 7/4 is an awful price, not as bad as the price Santa Barbara was but still can't have him that short at all.

Hes priced up like he's just hacked up in the guineas

Its the old school race planning that AOB likes that sticks in my mind.

BB was his key horse for the Ballysax/Derrinstown
High Definition was his horse for the Dante.

Those seemed to have been his two 1st choices.

The rest fill the void behind.
But often one of his longshots fills the void pretty well, as they're all usually choicely bred for 12F.

[Eggs]

.....Dante/Derby doubles;

High Definition 8-1 Hills & Sky
Hurricane Lane 50-1 Hills; 33-1 Sky
Gear Up 50-1 Sky; 33-1 Sky
Royal Champion 66-1 Hills
Uncle Bryn 125-1 Hills

Noon Star Musidora/Oaks & High Definition Dante/Derby 110-1 Sky

[parimutuel]

Saxon Warrior BOLSHOI BALLET, who had run three decent races last autumn including a heavy ground slog over 1M2F in a French Grade 1, when finishing a close up fifth beaten just over 2 lengths. Official Rating 108 confirms the quality of the French run just 8 days after winning his maiden.

With Makaloun winning yesterday at Chantilly, the form of that race last October is stacking up nicely. Two of the four colts have won on reappearance with the other two still to race and one of the fillies is also doing well. Gear Up won the race that day and could still prove to be good value for the Derby @ 28/1 and the Arc @ 66/1 before his Dante run.

[Saxon Warrior]

Saxon Warrior BOLSHOI BALLET, who had run three decent races last autumn including a heavy ground slog over 1M2F in a French Grade 1, when finishing a close up fifth beaten just over 2 lengths. Official Rating 108 confirms the quality of the French run just 8 days after winning his maiden.

With Makaloun winning yesterday at Chantilly, the form of that race last October is stacking up nicely. Two of the four colts have won on reappearance with the other two still to race and one of the fillies is also doing well. Gear Up won the race that day and could still prove to be good value for the Derby @ 28/1 and Arc @ 66/1.

I agree on GEAR UP.

Because he has a Group 1 win, and would've been penalised in any Derby trial, he's been saved for the Dante.

An unusual prep for a Johnston horse.

I like him for the St Leger and got Bet365 to quote him for that race on Monday.

2 wins at York already, he could make it 3 out of 3 today.

[Lobos]

The great Willie Carson just said he doesn't think Balshoi Ballet will stay the Derby distance. He would like to ride High Definition in the race.

[That Horse]

Didn't see this listed already on here so;

29 entries remain | 14 Irish-trained

THE CAZOO DERBY (Group 1) (British Champions Series)

EPSOM DOWNS. SATURDAY, 5TH JUNE

Horse Wgt Owner Trainer

• Adayar (IRE) 9 0 Godolphin Charlie Appleby
• Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) 9 0 Sue Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith Aidan O’Brien IRE
• Earlswood (GB) 9 0 G. Davies Johnny Murtagh IRE
• El Drama (IRE) 9 0 Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum Roger Varian
• Etonian (IRE) 9 0 Julie Wood Richard Hannon
• Gear Up (IRE) 9 0 Teme Valley Mark Johnston
• Gloucestershire (USA) 9 0 Team Valor & Manton Park Martyn Meade
• Hector de Maris (IRE) 9 0 Sue Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith Aidan O’Brien IRE
• High Definition (IRE) 9 0 Derrick Smith/Sue Magnier/Michael Tabor/Westerberg Aidan O’Brien IRE
• Hurricane Lane (IRE) 9 0 Godolphin Charlie Appleby
• John Leeper (IRE) 9 0 Anamoine Ltd Ed Dunlop
• Kyprios (IRE) 9 0 Moyglare Stud Farm & Mrs John Magnier & Michael Tabor Aidan O’Brien IRE
• Lone Eagle (IRE) 9 0 Ballylinch Stud & Aquis Farm Martyn Meade
• Mac Swiney (IRE) 9 0 Jackie Bolger Jim Bolger IRE
• Mohaafeth (IRE) 9 0 Shadwell Estate Company Ltd William Haggas
• Mojo Star (IRE) 9 0 Amo Racing Limited Richard Hannon
• One Ruler (IRE) 9 0 Godolphin Charlie Appleby
• Sandhurst (IRE) 9 0 Sue Magnier & Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith Aidan O’Brien IRE
• Seattle Creek (GB) 9 0 Luke Comer Luke Comer IRE
• Seattle Sound (IRE) 9 0 Luke Comer Luke Comer IRE
• Sir Lamorak (IRE) 9 0 Derrick Smith, Sue Magnier, Michael Tabor Aidan O’Brien IRE
• Southern Lights (IRE) 9 0 Aquis Racing & Al Mamoura Partnership Joseph Patrick O'Brien IRE
• Stay Well (GB) 9 0 Ben & Sir Martyn Arbib Hughie Morrison
• Taipan (FR) 9 0 Fiona Carmichael Jessica Harrington IRE
• The Mediterranean (IRE) 9 0 Derrick Smith, Sue Magnier & Michael Tabor Aidan O’Brien IRE
• Third Realm (GB) 9 0 Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum Roger Varian
• Van Gogh (USA) 9 0 Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith & Sue Magnier & Diane Nagle Aidan O’Brien IRE
• Yibir (GB) 9 0 Godolphin Charlie Appleby
• Youth Spirit (IRE) 9 0 Ahmad Al Shaikh Andrew Balding

[Saxon Warrior]

Which ones of Aidan's will turn up, out of those 8?

Probably at least 4.

Which is the outsider with a hidden big chance to upset the applecart, that stays all day, travels without pulling, and most likely has Galileo as a dad?

Looking back at the pedigrees, race planning, entries and videos, I think the answer to my own question is probably
THE MEDITERRANEAN
Should he make it as far as the 48-hour decs.
He does look a St Leger type, and I will try and get him added to the Exchange market for that race.

Derby 40/1
Derby Exchange 140.0
St Leger 40/1

[That Horse]

Which ones of Aidan's will turn up, out of those 8?

Probably at least 4.

Which is the outsider with a hidden big chance to upset the applecart, that stays all day, travels without pulling, and most likely has Galileo as a dad?

Looking back at the pedigrees, race planning, entries and videos, I think the answer to my own question is probably
THE MEDITERRANEAN
Should he make it as far as the 48-hour decs.
He does look a St Leger type, and I will try and get him added to the Exchange market for that race.

Derby 40/1
Derby Exchange 140.0
St Leger 40/1

Funnily enough, I went through the AOB squad from that list last night as well and was wondering which horse could potentially be the sneaky fucker that no-one gives a chance too but could run a big race.

I arrived at The Mediterranean as well and will be interested to see if the 2nd and 3rd he beat at Leopardstown turn up to race on Sunday at the Curragh where they're due to run. I might go small stakes anyway on The Med if he's that big on the exchanges.

From race planning point of view, he could be an each way shout for queen's vase at royal Ascot given where winners of his leopardstown race can end up.