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Had to back Mehdaayih again with Sky 40-1 2pts ew NRNB.
I'm not a layer.
adding to existing bets....
Mehdaayih 1pt 1000-1, 1pt 470-1, 1pt 80-1.
Japan 2pts 12-1 B365.
Thought it best to have a place on my side with so much potentially riding on her.
Fully expecting her not to run (can't find anything out as all they do is bang on about enable, for good reason I suppose), but she has been declared.
With the record of 3 year olds being so strong in this race it really looks open for Enable to win for a third time.
The biggest danger has to be Japan.
The only other three year olds
Anthony Van Dyk, Sottsas, Mehdaayih.
This seems light to me and a lot of the older horses look easy meat for enable.
Some Historical trends
Last 18/25 winners were 3yrs old.
Last 8/11 were fillies.
Last 4/11 were 3yr old filles.
2 of those went on to win it again obviously Treve & Enable
Record of 3yr old fillies in last 11 renewals. And list of Winners.....
Zarkava 3yr old filly - only 1 3yr old filliy ran and she won
Sea the stars 3yr old colt - only 1 ran again and stacelita came 7th
Workforce 3yr old colt - only 1 ran and was unlucky in running, Sarafina came 3rd
Danedream 3yr old filly - 4 ran in this, Shareta was 2nd and Galikova & testosterone down the field.
Solemia 4yr old filly - 2 ran in this and Yellow and Green & Great Heavens finished 5th and 6th.
Treve 3yr old filly - Just the one and she won
Treve 4yr old filly - 5 ran in this , Tagroodah 3rd and unlucky, Dolniya 5th, Harp Star 6th, Avenir certain 11th, Tapestry 13th
Golden Horn 3yr old colt - Found ran in this and came 9th, Shahah also ran and finished railed off (rated 77 ?)
Found 4yr old filly - Just one again, Left hand finished 12th
Enable 3yr old filly - 2 ran in this, the winner and Winter, who came 9th
Enable 4yr old filly - 2 ran in this, Sea of Class an unlucky 2nd and Magical who came 10th.
Out of just 22 runners (that's counting Shahah)
4 winners
4 placed
and 3 of those 22 runners returned to win the race at 4 also.
Thats pretty impressive given that the total runners is approx 195.
The record of three year old colts is also impressive and goes back even further, especially the top rated ones.
It appears very difficult for an older colt to give the weight away in this race, and the last one to do so was Dylan Thomas in 2007.
So I think the field can be narrowed down for Sunday.
The four 3yr olds have to be considered.
And maybe Enable (obviously) & Magical due to the similarities with Found.
But surely Enable has the beating of Magical ?
So I Think the bet has to be Mehdaayih (even though I already have her at daft prices) at the prices (especially the 40-1 NRNB with Sky) as there's every chance she won't run.
If she does though and gets the good end of the draw and one or two of the others don't, then I think her form means she is in with a decent chance. The form of her loss at Goodwood don't look too bad if you consider that she went too fast and also too soon, setting it up for Deidre to stay on best. Deidre did the same in the Irish Champion stakes but off a steadier pace and less lucky a ride.
And at 6-1 Japan still looks a solid each way bet too.
This should all set up for a four yr old colt to win.
Seriously though,
Enable should win this.
But the stats and history are against it.
But on a positive note the 3yr old challenge is thin on the ground (Gosden probably has the best ones sat at home in Starcatcher & Logician)
Which is why Mehdaayih running and winning is unlikely.
All this and I'll be on a fucking plane while it runs returning from a Golf weekend in Benalmadena ?
I'm not a layer.
adding to existing bets....
Mehdaayih 1pt 1000-1, 1pt 470-1, 1pt 80-1.
Japan 2pts 12-1 B365.
Thought it best to have a place on my side with so much potentially riding on her.
Fully expecting her not to run (can't find anything out as all they do is bang on about enable, for good reason I suppose), but she has been declared.
With the record of 3 year olds being so strong in this race it really looks open for Enable to win for a third time.
The biggest danger has to be Japan.
The only other three year olds
Anthony Van Dyk, Sottsas, Mehdaayih.
This seems light to me and a lot of the older horses look easy meat for enable.
Some Historical trends
Last 18/25 winners were 3yrs old.
Last 8/11 were fillies.
Last 4/11 were 3yr old filles.
2 of those went on to win it again obviously Treve & Enable
Record of 3yr old fillies in last 11 renewals. And list of Winners.....
Zarkava 3yr old filly - only 1 3yr old filliy ran and she won
Sea the stars 3yr old colt - only 1 ran again and stacelita came 7th
Workforce 3yr old colt - only 1 ran and was unlucky in running, Sarafina came 3rd
Danedream 3yr old filly - 4 ran in this, Shareta was 2nd and Galikova & testosterone down the field.
Solemia 4yr old filly - 2 ran in this and Yellow and Green & Great Heavens finished 5th and 6th.
Treve 3yr old filly - Just the one and she won
Treve 4yr old filly - 5 ran in this , Tagroodah 3rd and unlucky, Dolniya 5th, Harp Star 6th, Avenir certain 11th, Tapestry 13th
Golden Horn 3yr old colt - Found ran in this and came 9th, Shahah also ran and finished railed off (rated 77 ?)
Found 4yr old filly - Just one again, Left hand finished 12th
Enable 3yr old filly - 2 ran in this, the winner and Winter, who came 9th
Enable 4yr old filly - 2 ran in this, Sea of Class an unlucky 2nd and Magical who came 10th.
Out of just 22 runners (that's counting Shahah)
4 winners
4 placed
and 3 of those 22 runners returned to win the race at 4 also.
Thats pretty impressive given that the total runners is approx 195.
The record of three year old colts is also impressive and goes back even further, especially the top rated ones.
It appears very difficult for an older colt to give the weight away in this race, and the last one to do so was Dylan Thomas in 2007.
So I think the field can be narrowed down for Sunday.
The four 3yr olds have to be considered.
And maybe Enable (obviously) & Magical due to the similarities with Found.
But surely Enable has the beating of Magical ?
So I Think the bet has to be Mehdaayih (even though I already have her at daft prices) at the prices (especially the 40-1 NRNB with Sky) as there's every chance she won't run.
If she does though and gets the good end of the draw and one or two of the others don't, then I think her form means she is in with a decent chance. The form of her loss at Goodwood don't look too bad if you consider that she went too fast and also too soon, setting it up for Deidre to stay on best. Deidre did the same in the Irish Champion stakes but off a steadier pace and less lucky a ride.
And at 6-1 Japan still looks a solid each way bet too.
This should all set up for a four yr old colt to win.
Seriously though,
Enable should win this.
But the stats and history are against it.
But on a positive note the 3yr old challenge is thin on the ground (Gosden probably has the best ones sat at home in Starcatcher & Logician)
Which is why Mehdaayih running and winning is unlikely.
All this and I'll be on a fucking plane while it runs returning from a Golf weekend in Benalmadena ?
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