2014 Champion Hurdle

[donka]

Horses that have won or been placed in the Supreme that run in the Champion the following year-

Supreme Hurdle 1990+ ; Champion Hurdle ;

1990- Danny Harold 2nd 1991- Unplaced @ 16/1
1991- Granville again 2nd 1992- Unplaced @ 9/2
1992- Flown won 1993- Unplaced @
1992-Halkopous 2nd 1993- 3rd @ 9/1
1997- Shadow leader won 1998- Unplaced @ 13/2
1999- hors la loi won 2000- 2nd @ 11/1
2002- like a butterfly won 2003- Unplaced @ 13/2
2002- westender 2nd 2003- 2nd @ 33/1
2002- In contrast 3rd 2003- Unplaced @ 25/1
2004- brave inca won 2005- 3rd @ 10/1
2005-Arcalis won 2006- Unplaced @ 9/1
2006- straw bear 2nd 2007- Unplaced @ 7/1
2007- ebaziyan won 2008- Unplaced @ 33/1
2008- binocular won 2009- 3rd @ 6/4
2008- snap tie 3rd 2009- Unplaced @ 40/1
2009- go native won 2010- Unplaced @ 11/4
2009- medermit 2nd 2010- Unplaced @ 11/1
2010- menorah won 2011- Unplaced @ 3/1
2010- dunguib 3rd 2011- Unplaced @ 10/1
2012- cinders and ashes won 2013- Unplaced @ 16/1

0 wins
2 x 2nd places
3 x 3rd places
14 unplaced

Profit/Loss to a £20win stake = £380 Loss
Profit/Loss to a £10e/w stake = £162.50 Loss

This years qualifying Supreme representatives to run in the 2014 Champion are
My Tent or Yours & Jezki

[donka]

Horses that have won or been placed in the Triumph that ran in the Champion the following year-

Triumph Hurdle 1990+ ; Champion Hurdle ;

1990-rare holiday won 1991-Unplaced @ 50/1
1991-oh so risky won 1992-2nd @ 20/1
1991-Chirkpar 2nd 1992-Unplaced @ 20/1
1992-duke of Monmouth- won 1993-Unplaced @ 25/1
1993-shawiya won 1994-Unplaced @ 16/1
1994-mysilv won 1995-Unplaced @ 15/2
1995-kissair won 1996-Unplaced @ 66/1
1998-upgrade won 1999-Unplaced @ 66/1
1998-city hall 2nd 1999-Unplaced @ 33/1
1998-nomadic 3rd 1999-Unplaced @ 50/1
1999-katarino won 2000-Unplaced @ 25/1
1999-balla sola 2nd 2000-Unplaced @ 50/1
2002-scolardy won 2003-Unplaced @ 66/1
2005-penzance won 2006-Unplaced @ 40/1
2005-fassel 2nd 2006-Unplaced @ 16/1
2006-detroit city won 2007-Unplaced @ 6/4
2007-katchit won 2008-Won @ 10/1
2008-celestial halo won 2009-2nd @ 17/2
2008-won in the dark-3rd 2009-Unplaced @ 33/1
2009-zaynar won 2010-3rd @ 15/2
2011-zarkandar won 2012-Unplaced @ 9/1
2012-countrywide flame-won 2013-3rd @ 16/1

1 win
2 x 2nd places
2 x 3rd places
17 unplaced

Profit/Loss to a £20win stake = £220 Loss
Profit/Loss to a £10e/w stake = £125 Loss

This years qualifying Triumph representatives to run in the 2014 Champion are Our Conor & maybe Far West

[Old Vic]

Good stuff Donka - good basis for your support of the new one.

[Hoof]

Impressive. Time to double Tno and Afc for march.

[mayo]

Welcome Donka - quiet enough here at the minute but gets a bit busier as jumps season progresses.

You have to be very taken with the way The New One went about his business yesterday. Always been a follower of that Neptune trend ...FWIW I would love to have seen Simonsig lined up in last years champion.

[mayo]

Impressive. Time to double Tno and Afc for march.

It was a good double last year (collateral form) but way too skinny for me this far out.

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

Welcome Donka - quiet enough here at the minute but gets a bit busier as jumps season progresses.

You have to be very taken with the way The New One went about his business yesterday. Always been a follower of that Neptune trend ...FWIW I would love to have seen Simonsig lined up in last years champion.

Dont go there with Simonsig mayo. I had him in a most of my early lucky 15s for the Champion. The way he pulled in Arkle hard to imagine he could have won though ( and reportedly scoped badly afterwards).

Fascinating Champion Hurdle this year imo. Will be plenty of racing people shouting for Our Conor after Barry Connell's fine gesture. Jezki is the one that I am looking forward to seeing - back at Down Royal - Jessie will probably take her old Macs Joy route to March.

... and welcome to The Judge and Donka.

[donka]

Welcome Donka - quiet enough here at the minute but gets a bit busier as jumps season progresses.

You have to be very taken with the way The New One went about his business yesterday. Always been a follower of that Neptune trend ...FWIW I would love to have seen Simonsig lined up in last years champion.

Hi mayo,Thanks for the welcome,

Totally agree mayo The New One was very impressive,I'm well chuffed & just a little relieved too as i have a very fat wedge on him ante post.
The neptune trend seems very strong i must admit,But the opposite is true especially about the Supreme hurdle -Shocking stats.
I try not to let the stats influence my selections but if i were considering backing MTOY or Jezki (which i'm not ) for the champion i would be worried.

@ OV,Hoof & RC Thanks for the welcome & comments.Be Lucky

Oh yeah I too would have backed Simonsig for the CH if he had ran.

[donka]

My thoughts & opinions about the main Champion hurdle contenders –

Rock On Ruby – Even though he may have needed the run at kempton he was still firmly put in his place by The New One and I can’t for the life of me see him reversing that form. He’ll be nine next year so he won’t be improving & now he’s coming up against some smart young horses who are.


Grandouet – If he does go for the Champion then I’m more than happy to put a line through him as I would not back him with an enemies cash. His jumping can be dodgy as well as being a weak finisher but the main reason for not wanting him is that there is absolutely nothing in his past form that suggests he’s good enough to win a Champion.


Jezki – Very good horse who is highly thought of and sure to win a top race or two in Ireland but at Cheltenham I’m not so sure. Seems to go best on a flatter track on soft/heavy ground . Only beaten twice but both of those defeats came at the festival. There’s no doubt that connections were very disappointed after the Supreme with Mrs Harrington at a loss to explain another defeat at Cheltenham only to say she thought the hill may be the problem.
There’s enough doubts for me not to be interested in backing him.


My Tent Or Yours – Another smart JP McManus horse who has looked a world beater on occasions only to look like a bridle baby on others. I was on him at 10s for the Supreme but I must admit I had a niggle in mind about him around Cheltenham and so it proved to my cost ,He held every chance but didn’t find enough.
He refuses to settle and has too many quirks for my liking.


Hurricane Fly – Will surely go down as one of the greats but I have serious doubts about his 2014 Champion chances. Last year he was outpaced then stayed on past horses that had spent all their energy by going too fast too early. I don’t believe he has the speed to cope with some of the youngsters and it would not surprise me if he didn’t make the frame. Although not a gilt edged stat lets not forget that at last years festival The New One came home five seconds faster than the Fly from the second last to the line.


Our Conor – Exciting horse who travels & jumps brilliantly, I have him as the biggest danger to The New One next year & Dessie Hughes thinks he’s a bit special and the one to beat in the Champion.
There’s the five year old stat that’s always talked about but to be honest I’d be more concerned about the change of jockey & breaking up a winning pairing, I’m reluctant to back a horse in a championship race with a novice rider on board, That being said he is still my saver bet.

The New One – For me one of the most exciting horses for at least a decade, Speed,Stamina Travels great, Jumps great with a blistering turn of foot and goes on any ground. This horse has everything and try as I might to find a weakness or two I just can’t. If he’s within three or four lengths at the second last then I think he'll win and win well.


There are others in the betting with potential but still with plenty to prove.

[Hoof]

It was a good double last year (collateral form) but way too skinny for me this far out.

Both serious tools IMO

[Hoof]

Jezki got a big write up by Andy Gibson in ATR

Jezki finished off his season in scintillating fashion with a 16-length win in the Herald Champion Novice Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival. The runner up was the 142 rated Ted Veale which adds some substance to the validity of Jezki’s 161 hurdle rating.

Before that he had run to a high standard in the Supreme Hurdle at Cheltenham. Jezki would have gone much closer that day but for hitting the last hurdle. He generally jumped really well but was untidy at the second last flight and the combination of those two errors appeared to cost him at least what he was beaten by. In my opinion he should be marked up on that performance as being on a par with the winner Champagne Fever.

Previously, Jezki had beaten Champagne Fever by a length and a half in the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse. He was in receipt of three pounds and he won despite jumping the least well of the main contenders. The right handed track did not play to his strengths that day as he continually lost momentum by jumping out to his left. Champagne Fever appeared to run well below form when finishing a well beaten third behind Jezki last time out at Punchestown.

Jezki is rated on the same mark as Our Conor and a pound ahead of My Tent Or Yours. Consequently, it is rather surprising to see him trading at twice the odds of those two in the ante post markets for Cheltenham. He has proven course form and could improve on better ground (Barry Geraghty has always maintained this would be the case). If the ante post markets for the Cheltenham Festival interest you at such an early stage of the season, Jezki would, in my opinion be the one that appears overpriced at his current odds of 12-1.


As did TNO - written before Sunday

The New One has won four of his six races over hurdles and has been narrowly beaten in the other two. His career best effort came when taking the Grade 1 Neptune Investment Novices’ Hurdle at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival. He quickened away from his field in impressive fashion in that contest; it is possible, however, that he did not have that much to beat as the favourite may well have been below par and his other main rival, Taquin Du Seuil was undoubtedly unsuited to the drying ground.

He followed up his win in March with a fine second place finish in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle where he was only just beaten by the Champion Hurdle fourth Zarkandar. Whether or not this turns out to be top-class form depends in part on how much improvement one believes the wearing of blinkers brought about for Zarkandar. Either way, The New One ran really well for a novice and it was not the horse’s fault that he was made favourite despite needing to improve to win.

The New One is clearly a high-class hurdler who will now be dropped in trip and be aimed at the Champion Hurdle in March. He is rated-165 which puts him ahead of most of his main rivals, at least according to the betting market. Personally, I think that mark is a little flattering at the moment as it is based on the 167 rating of Zarkandar which, in my opinion overstates that horse’s ability level somewhat.

The New One should be one of the top four or five two mile hurdlers this season and, although he still has something to prove in comparison with the likes of Jezki, My Tent Or Yours and Hurricane Fly, he has plenty of good Cheltenham form to his name and is lightly-raced enough to suggest he could still have improvement in him.

[Old Vic]

Looks like Nicky Henderson has changed his mind on Grandouet again.

[mayo]

WKD Hurdle

A bit of negativity around Jezki run. I thought he did it well enough. Was giving runner up 10lbs and sure Jessie has left plenty to work on.

[1833]

Early indications last years Juvenies at not have been hectic ?

[mayo]

Early indications last years Juveniles at not have been hectic ?

Timeform have taken a contrary view Our Conor has been upgraded on back of collateral form.

Ruby Walsh on the main contenders:

Hurricane Fly: Hurricane Fly gave me a good feel. Paul Townend, who rides him at home, thought he was as unready as he has ever been. He came in that much stronger as it was a good summer so we were struggling to get him really fit. He was a bit rusty, he didn’t jump as well as he can early on but he put in a tremendous jump at the last. We knew they would give him a race – we never thought they would beat him though, and he’ll come on a lot.

Looking at his potential Champion Hurdle rivals, you would have to be impressed by the progress The New One has been making. He was an okay jumper last year, and there is no shame in getting beaten by At Fishers Cross at Cheltenham over a trip in January.For a novice to run an experienced horse like Zarkandar close at Aintree on his final start of the season was a terrific run and Kempton last month was a particularly spectacular starting point.

I’ve always been a My Tent Or Yours fan and he’d be a huge force in the Champion Hurdle if he could learn to settle – he’s the one we all have to beat if he does. He was a runaway winner of the Betfair Hurdle and although Champagne Fever touched him off in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle I think Champagne Fever is a hell of a good horse.

FWIW I heard Jezki didn't run because he worked badly in week before race.

2013 Morgiana Hurdle