2013 Cheltenham Gold Cup

[Old Vic]

I don't see this as being an exceptional Gold Cup that Long Run couldn't win it again. Backing him I wouldn't be so sure about. Even Imperial Commander could give them plenty to think about. He doesn't know the difference between a 160 horse and a 170 horse he'll have a fight with anyone when he's on song 12 years old or not.

The fav having a set back isn't as much a worry as it would be with another Trainer somehow Nicky always seems to get them spot on at home if need be .

I do like Sir Des Champs he'll be hard to beat if stamina is what is to win the day. There's no real speed merchant bar Flemenstar and he wouldn't get the trip in a horse box.


Truth is I have no real opinion looks wide open to me.

Welcome the the board The Judge.

Yep. Its the most wide open Gold Cup since erm...last year

[The Judge]

Thank you

[Morning Glory]

Welcome to The Judge ( I'm a new boy too). You have to love the Festival.

Good write up on next week trials in Irish Indo this morning. Interesting thoughts about the Aon and Silvi.



By this time next week, any horse with real pretensions to the Cheltenham Gold Cup will have been seen in public for the last time before the race itself in mid-March.

Between last weekend's Argento Chase and next Saturday's double act of Leopardstown's Hennessy Gold Cup coupled with Newbury's Denman Chase, most of those coming aboard will already be on the Gold Cup trial wagon and, bar the likes of Katenko or Wyck Hill winning the Racing Plus Chase at Kempton by a distance at the end of February, we should pretty much know where we stand regarding jump racing's Blue Riband by then.

Last week's Argento Chase looked like being a major tributary to the main event. However, the withdrawal of Gold Cup favourite Bobs Worth (with a dirty scope) and the morning abdication of Tidal Bay robbed the event of much of its glitter. It paved the way, however, for the reappearance of former Gold Cup hero Imperial Commander after a 680-day absence.

Valiantly though he tried, his 12-year-old hooves just couldn't repel the late, late challenge of the improved Cape Tribulation in the final strides in an event where just four of the ten that started completed.

Master Oats (1995) and Looks Like Trouble (2000) are the only winners of the Argento (former Cotswold Chase) to have gone on to Gold Cup glory in the same season, and it is hard to imagine any of this year's protagonists troubling the judge on March 15. The gallant but legless Hunt Ball has already been diverted to the Byrne Group Plate. Imperial Commander, in spite of his lay-off, had much in his favour on the day. His record when fresh, course form, meticulous preparation and generous weight concession (6lbs from Cape Tribulation; 10lbs from many others) implied a big run, and the fact that he failed to contain the winner has to mark him down in terms of his former ability. Also the factor of the dreaded "bounce" has to be a concern just seven weeks later, given the exertions of the day.

Finally, for all that Cape Tribulation is maturing into a 160-horse, it is hard to imagine him improving into a Gold Cup winner in the next six weeks.

All of which escalates the trials at Leopardstown and Newbury next Saturday as even more critical to the final outcome. The Denman Chase (former Aon) looks like featuring a head-to-head between Britain's leading trainers Henderson and Nicholls, via a clash involving Silvianaco Conti and Long Run. What is interesting here is that in both cases, directly after winning their last race (Betfair Chase and King George respectively), their trainers both announced a straight-to-Gold-Cup policy. They've obviously both had a rethink since.

Long Run won the Newbury race last year en route to disappointing in the Gold Cup. He now has a score to settle with Silviniaco Conti after succumbing to that fitter rival in the Betfair Chase in November. Silviniaco Conti had previously sluiced up in the Charlie Hall from some inferior or out-of-form rivals. One intriguing fact for the stat-lovers is that no Charlie Hall winner has ever gone on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup in the same season (although Davy Lad did win the Gold Cup two year's later). Track configuration, distance and time of year have everything to do with the establishment of that truth as Wetherby in October couldn't be further from Prestbury Park in March.

Which makes the about-turn on Silvianaco Conti all the more perplexing. Throughout last season connections were adamant he wasn't a Cheltenham horse. He would have been fully entitled to take his chance in the RSA on his form with Bobs Worth, but from some way out Paul Nicholls was adamant to avoid the undulations of Cheltenham in favour of Aintree, where he was extremely impressive. His two victories this season have come at flat tracks and, however he fares at Newbury, it will only add to his flat track portfolio.

Cheltenham's loss last Saturday will be Leopardstown's gain next Saturday as Tidal Bay will now be re-routed for a tantalising rematch with Lexus victims Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs. Each of the three protagonists can harbour just cause for optimism in the rematch – Tidal Bay for emerging victorious on the day; Flemenstar for having appeared to have put the race easily to bed until the run-in; and Sir Des Champs for having finished so close despite two serious jumping errors. It is understandable that connections of Flemenstar should give three miles one more try. However, horses don't suddenly acquire stamina and whatever the outcome, I will be surprised if the Gold Cup proves to be Peter Casey's star's Festival destination.

Also, given Ruby Walsh's enthusiasm for Silviniaco Conti, coupled with the absence of Big Buck's, it appears more likely Tidal Bay will be World Hurdle-bound in March.

After the Christmas period, the only horse to shorten in the betting for the Gold Cup was Bobs Worth – the only one that stayed home in his box. Through a minor infection, Bobs Worth will again be absent next Saturday (and indeed will not reappear until Gold Cup day itself). His season will have been confined to just one run (in the Hennessy in November). Could it be the case, again, that absence makes the market grow fonder?

- Ian McClean

[mayo]

The case for Katenko from Donn McClean


Katenko

Everything about the performance that Katenko put up in winning the Murphy Group Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday was impressive. He had the pace to lie handily on this drop down in trip without Aidan Coleman having to rush him up at any stage, he jumped really well, he cruised into the lead over the fourth last fence, and he was pressing on, together with Our Mick, when that one jumped left, collided with him, and unseated Jason Maguire three from home. Katenko shipped a hefty bump himself, but that didn’t affect him, he continued to power on around the home turn and up the hill, jumped the last two fences well and, despite idling up the run-in, ran out a 12-length winner.

Katenko jumps, he travels and he keeps on galloping, which is exactly what you want in a Gold Cup horse, and we know now that he handles the track. He has plenty of find in the context of a Gold Cup, even after his 11lb hike here he still has around a stone to find with Long Run, Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth on official ratings, but he is only seven and there is no ceiling to the amount these staying chasers can improve at this age.

He will probably want a cut in the ground, all his form is on soft ground and he does have a knee action, but easy ground is not unlikely this year. According to times, the last five Gold Cups have been run on ground that has been soft, good to soft, good to soft, good and good (as opposed to the official good to soft, good to soft, good, good and good), and the clerk of the course at Cheltenham reports that the water table has never been higher at this time of year, with all the rain that we have had. If the ground did happen to come up soft, Katenko would not be out of place in a Gold Cup.

26th January 2013

[Morning Glory]

Mail De Bevre


The trainer said: "He's had a good preparation and we've been delighted with everything he's done at home since he joined us about four months ago. He was a very high-class horse in France. He had a mark of 172 over there, but they've dropped him to 160 because he's been off the track a year and a half.

"Racing is a lot different over here and we'll learn a lot more about him on Saturday.

"We've always got going back to France with him up our sleeve if we need to go that way. We're really looking forward to running him on Saturday. It should be an exciting day."

[mayo]

Flemenstar video http://www.fatjockey.com/news-blogs/...eter-Casey-226

[racecaller13]

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-0-3
7yo: 3-4-21
8yo: 2-6-44
9yo: 4-5-33
10yo: 0-3-27
11yo: 0-2-14
12yo+: 0-0-4
Horses aged 6 to 9 (10-15-101) have won the last 10 runnings.
Horses aged 10+ (0-5-45) have gained no wins and 5 places in the last 10 runnings from just under a third of the total runners. The 5 placed finishers aged 10+ had were either former Gold Cup winners or had won the previous season’s Aintree Grand National.

Breeding
Irish Bred: 7-12-79
French Bred: 3-6-43
British Bred: 0-2-21
Other: 0-0-3
Irish and French bred horses have dominated, winning the last 10, though they have represented 83.5% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 last time out
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 162+ on last completed start (exception posted an RPR of 177 on penultimate start)
10 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 167+ in last 2 starts
9 of 10 winners had run in 8 to 11 chases in their career (exception was Kauto Star winning it 2nd time)
8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (2 exceptions had won the race before)
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was 2nd in Lexus on only previous try at 3M+)
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase that season (2 exceptions were Imperial Commander beaten a short head in grade 1 Betfair Chase & War Of Attrition 2nd in grade 1 Lexus)
4 of 4 second season chaser winners had won a grade 1 novice chase
The 10 winners had collectively had 18 prior chase starts over 2M 6F+ the season they won it and finished in first 2 in 17 of those 18 (exception was Imperial Commander's 5th in King George).

Previous Cheltenham Form
Returning Gold Cup winner: 1122FP3 (2-3-7)
Highest placed finisher from last year to return: 1135022FP3 (2-4-10)
Ryanair Chase winner (Riverside Theatre): 1 (1-0-1)
RSA Chase winner (Bobs Worth): P195 (1-0-4)
4M NH Novice Chase winner (Teaforthree): 9 (0-0-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous Gold Cup, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in the RSA Chase, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Arkle, finishing 27
9 of 10 winners ran in a chase at the previous Festival (exception was Synchronised last year, who was placed in Midlands National on the Saturday of Cheltenham week the previous year)
8 of 10 winners had previously finished in first 3 at the Festival (1 exception was Kauto Star who fell when favourite in the Queen Mother and other was Synchronised who was having first run at Festival)

Other races
King George winner (Long Run): 11121F1P (5-1-7)
Lexus Chase winner (Tidal Bay): F1001371 (3-1-8)
Denman Chase winner: 41183 (2-1-5)
JN Wine Champion Chase winner (Kauto Stone): P013 (1-1-5)
Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Bobs Worth): 761820 (1-1-6)
Betfair Chase winner (Silviniaco Conti): 012PFPP (1-1-7)
Previous season's Berkshire Novice Chase winner (Bobs Worth): 1 (1-0-1)
Clonmel Oil Chase winner (Sizing Europe): F1 (1-0-2)
Gowran Park Champion Chase winner (Sizing Europe): 1P (1-0-2)
John Durkan Memorial Chase winner (Flemenstar): 41 (1-0-2)
Steel Plate And Sections Novices' Chase winner (Grands Crus): 1P5 (1-0-3)
Previous season's Feltham winner (Grands Crus): 601 (1-0-3)
Murphy Group Chase winner (Katenko): 2 (0-1-1)
Red Mills Chase winner: 3 (0-1-1)
Bobbyjo Chase winner: 37 (0-1-2)
Previous season's Drinmore Chase winner (Bog Warrior): 37 (0-1-2)
Rehearsal Chase winner (Junior): 828 (0-1-3)
Punchestown Gold Cup winner (China Rock): 5P34 (0-1-4)
Argento Chase winner (Cape Tribulation): 552687 (0-1-6)
Welsh National winner (Monbeg Dude): P (0-0-1)
Growise Champion Novice Chase winner (Sir Des Champs): 0P (0-0-2)
Henrietta Knight Handicap Chase winner (Monbeg Dude): 05 (0-0-2)
Future Stars Chase winner (Bold Sir Brian): 47 (0-0-2)
Previous season's Dipper Novice Chase winner (Champion Court): 06 (0-0-2)
Charlie Hall Chase winner (Silviniaco Conti): 050P (0-0-4)
Irish Hennessy Gold Cup winner: F4004P (0-0-6)
6 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 111151
4 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus Chase, finishing 1211
10 of 10 winners ran in Lexus or King George that season (9 of 10 were 1st or 2nd)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 1U2
2 of 10 winners ran in the Denman Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan Memorial, finishing 15
2 of 2 Irish-trained winners ran in previous year's Ryanair Novice Chase, finishing 1B

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-6-27) has trained 3 of the last 6 winners of this and seen a third of his runners make the places since 2003.
Jonjo O’Neill (1-2-7) trained last year’s ill-fated winner, Synchronised, and 2 of his other 6 runners have made the frame.
Nicky Henderson (1-1-6) trained Long Run to win it in 2011 and get placed last year.
Mouse Morris (1-0-3) & Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-5) are the only other trainers with entrants to have saddled the winner in past 10 years.
The Pipe Stable (0-0-11) and Phillip Hobbs (0-0-3) have each failed to saddle a runner that made the frame in the past 10 runnings from 14 collective runners.
Irish trained runners (2-4-24) won the race 2005 and filled the first 3 positions in 2006 but have struggled more recently, failing to fill a place in any of the last 6 years (they were not represented in 2009).

Price
10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
The longest priced winner since 2000 has been 8/1.
Favourites (6-3-10) have taken 6 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 8.85.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 6 to 9
· Irish or French bred
· Had 8 to 11 career chase starts (2 to 5 this season)
· Finished in first 2 in all chase starts over 2M 6F+ this season
· Second or third season chaser (or previous winner)
· Finished in the first 2 last time and posted RPR of 162+
· Posted an RPR of 167+ in last 2 chase starts
· Won over 3M+
· Won a grade 1 chase (ideally this season)
· Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase at 2012 Festival
· Finished 1st or 2nd in either the Lexus or King George this season
· From first 3 in the betting (favourite does especially well)
· Trained in Britain (especially by Paul Nicholls)

[Old Vic]

Welcome Racecaller13 ..u are missing one big one there

Only one horse since 1963 - Dawn Run -has won the gold cup with less than six runs over fences -bobsworth has had 5

[JohnC]

Mordin's stats

SIR DES CHAMPS STILL THE ONE TO BEAT IN THE GOLD CUP

Jockey Andrew Lynch gave FLEMENSTAR (41) every chance of staying the three miles of the Hennessy Gold Cup. He held him up and eased him back into second when he landed in front over the second last. He clearly wanted to wait until the last possible moment to deliver his challenge. And a moderate early pace helped him conserve his mount's stamina.

If he'd been up against a normal Grade 1 rival Flemenstar would have won. But Flemenstar was trying to peg back Sir Des Champs, a horse that can jumps fast and accurately, seems to have bottomless stamina and also a good turn of foot. So when Sir Des Champs pinged the last and set sail for home it was always going to be tough for Flemenstar to peg him back. He briefly looked as though he could get to him but then Sir Des Champs shook him off in the last 75 yards or so to win by nearly two lengths.

You can see what I mean about the moderate early pace by comparing the sectional times for the race with those for the hunter chase over the same distance later on the card (clock starts at first jump and shows time to each subsequent jump then finish).

Sir Des Champs....Salsify

3m ch...................3m ch

17.59....................16.66

31.93.....................31.13

49.33.....................48.53

72.06....................71.59

89.73....................89.39

125.39..................125.99

169.99..................172.13

185.93..................187.99

221.86..................224.59

245.26..................248.19

261.93..................265.53

275.86..................279.66

292.39..................296.06

313.46..................317.46

329.53..................333.79

360.39..................366.93

380.53..................387.33

As you can see the Hennessy Gold Cup runners were running only a smidge faster than the hunter chasers in the first third of the race. They then steadily gained to finish 7.8 seconds faster. So the final time was good but it was achieved off a rather ordinary early gallop. This still leaves open the question of whether Flemenstar can stay three miles in a more strongly run race. However it is the second time in a row that he's earned a rating of 41 from me over three miles. So although he probably is a bit better over two and a half miles I can still see him winning a Grade 1 over three. Whether he can last two and a half furlongs more than that around Cheltenham in the Gold Cup with that steep uphill finish off a likely stronger early pace is still in question. But I cannot say it's impossible.

Apart from the occasional lapse, clever jumping has been a hallmark of SIR DES CHAMPS (41) career. And it must be great for his jockey to be able to rely on him producing a fast accurate jump as he did at the last in this race. That clinched the deal for him here and his superior stamina and acceleration ensured he was not going to be caught on the run in.

I was impressed with the comeback effort of last year's Hennessy winner QUEL ESPRIT (35). He made the running till seeming to blow up through lack of fitness from two out. He's still relatively lightly raced and I can see him wining more Grade 1 chases.

With the major Gold Cup preps now run I decided to take a look at the stats for the big race.

There are a couple of stats that have proven a very good guide to the Cheltenham Gold Cup in recent years:

* Fifteen of the last sixteen Gold Cup winners had run 13 or fewer times over fences, won at least half their completed starts over the bigger jumps and had reached the first three in a Grade 1 chase.

* The last twenty three Gold Cup winners earned a Racing Post rating bigger than 155 last time out, or on their last completed start, and that rating was within seven pounds of their highest ever. Or they earned their biggest ever Racing Post rating on one of their last two starts.

Only seven Gold Cup entrants match up to these stats:

Bobs Worth

Bog Warrior

Flemenstar

Quito De La Roque

Silviniaco Conti

Sir Des Champs

Weapons Amnesty

I can't believe Bog Warrior can win a Gold Cup off a hurdle race prep. Quito De La Roque would need the ground to be much softer than seems likely and Weapons Amnesty was pulled up on his only start since 2010. So basically the stats say there are only four serious candidates for the Gold Cup: Bobs Worth, Flemenstar, Silviniaco Conti and Sir Des Champs.

For my money Sir Des Champs is the stand out of these four. He continues to look the one they all have to beat in the big race.

[Yeehaa]

Bobs Worth is among 24 horses heading forward for the Betfred Gold Cup at Cheltenham on March 15.

Nicky Henderson also houses the 2011 winner Long Run, who regained his King George crown on Boxing Day, while Finian's Rainbow remains in the mix.

Another former winner, Imperial Commander, is also heading back with the aim of emulating Kauto Star by winning the most prestigious race in the game for a second time after losing the title.

Paul Nicholls enjoyed great dominance with Kauto Star and Denman but without those two his hopes rely on Silviniaco Conti and What A Friend. As expected, Tidal Bay has been taken out.

David Bridgwater is looking to saddle last year's runner-up The Giant Bolster and has also left in Wyck Hill, due to put his credentials on the line in the Racing Plus Chase at Kempton.

The Irish are looking to Sir Des Champs to give Willie Mullins a first win in the race, while Grand National favourite Prince De Beauchene is still in.

First Lieutenant and China Rock are enntered for Mouse Morris, while Jessies Dream and Bog Warrior are also in the mix.

Captain Chris, Katenko, Cape Tribulation and Monbeg Dude and others to note.

Flemenstar is among the 16 scratched horses along with Bold Sir Brian, Grands Crus, Hunt Ball and Sizing Europe.

[Hoof]

A few key stats to be taking a look at when making a selection in this race;
12/12 winners of the Gold Cup had previously run within the last three months.
12/12 winners of the Gold Cup were aged between 6 and 9.
12/12 winners of the Gold Cup had run in that seasons King George or Lexus prior to success at Cheltenham.
12/12 winners of the Gold Cup had previously won a Grade 1 contest.
12/12 winners of the Gold Cup were in the top three in the betting.
Long Run (2011) became the first 6yo to win the Gold Cup since Mill House back in 1963.
11/12 winners of the Gold Cup were officially rated 166 or above.

[Hoof]

Oh racing

Bobs Worth is unbeaten in four attempts at Cheltenham which includes two impressive Festival successes in both the Albert Bartlett Hurdle and RSA Chase. He looked as good as ever when winning the Hennessy Gold Cup off a mark of 160, in the process winning off the highest mark since Denman’s first win (161). Denman was up against a lesser quality of opposition than Bobs Worth for his first Hennessy success and comparisons between the two can be drawn on the basis they both won the RSA Chase the previous season. Denman went on to win the Gold Cup that year in a dazzling success over Kauto Star and although we haven’t seen Bobs Worth since his romp in November, with just five chase starts so far he clearly has further room for improvement. I haven’t always been the biggest fan of Bobs Worth as he isn’t flashy in any way and just gets the job done with a resounding frequency at Prestbury Park. I believe there has only been one runner with under six previous starts successful in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in just under 50 years so the stats on that score are against Bobs Worth – that said I think he is above ordinary and I fully expect him to take plenty of beating next month.

The horse which can give him most to think about is the David Bridgewater trained The Giant Bolster. Second in this race last season 50-1, he put together a performance which seemingly appeared out of nowhere. A closer inspection of his form sees an affinity with Cheltenham racecourse and a preference for decent racing ground is clear, so the fact he has run two of his best races of his career this season with both coming on bottomless ground suggests to me he has improved again. A disappointing effort when all at sea at Kempton in the King George he returned to the same level of form shown on his prep run prior to his second in the Gold Cup last season, this time on much softer ground. He isn’t the best jumper and like Long Run he is prone to mistakes but he seems able to correct himself these days and apart from being pulled-up at Kempton two starts ago he has completed the course on all starts since November 2011.

It is interesting to note that the last 13 winners of the Cheltenham Gold Cup had run in either the King George Chase or Lexus Chase that season, before going onto success at The Festival. With 10 of the last 11 winners of the Gold Cup either finishing first or second in either race. That said Imperial Commander managed only fifth in the King George before winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2010 and both Looks Like Trouble (2000) and See More Business (1999) were both pulled up in the King George before going onto success at Cheltenham.

Taking all this into account and the fact that Bobs Worth hasn’t been seen since the Hennessy and is likely to head straight for The Festival without a recent run, add to that only one horse in almost 50 years has won a Gold Cup with less than six previous chase starts, is leading me to sway towards THE GIANT BOLSTER, something which I never thought was possible before looking at this race in-depth when writing this preview.

Unlike Bobs Worth he has the requisite run in either the King George or Lexus Chase which has sourced 13 winners on the spin, and as Looks Like Trouble and See More Business proved you can be pulled up in the King George and still go on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup, The Giant Bolster really begins to come into my calculations with the expected improvement switched back to Cheltenham and better ground.

That said although I am siding with David Bridgewater’s gelding it really wouldn’t surprise me if Bobs Worth bucked both the trends mentioned above, he is clearly high-class but at almost six times the price it just might be worth siding with The Giant Bolster to go one better in the race he surprised so many in 12 months ago.

[gigginstown]

Mouse wants to run First L http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showt...=5815#post5815

[Cooper]

Mouse wants to run First L http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showt...=5815#post5815

Good spot giggy. He deserves his chance in the big one imo.

[Old Vic]

Ruby very bullish on Silvi ...video here http://www.fatjockey.com/cheltenham-...alsh-Rides-127

"I like him, I really like him. I thought he won well at Wetherby. I thought he was very good in Haydock . People say, 'He got first run on Long Run and he needed the run and you'd had a run'. It's the same with anything. If you want to pick holes in something you can. The form is there if you want to go and look at it. He's mature, he's only seven, he's a brilliant jumper, he's a good traveller, he'll stay, I think he has everything."

Silvinicaio Contil can be backed at 5/1 with BetVictor ( NRFB concession) , Paddy Power and Stan James.

Equally he see see flaws in other contenders:

Sirs Des Champs : "He went to Punchestown and halved the last, nearly fell and he hasn't looked the same horse jumping since. I think he's gone a bit careful. They hacked along in the Hennessy and he got a chance to get into a rhythm. I think when they come out in the Gold Cup, he won't be in that comfort zone."

First Lieutenant, "He's missing something. The Lexus presented itself to him, he got back past Flemenstar yet he folded up. The race was there for him. I think the Irish horses have to improve a good bit."

Bobs Worth : "Bobs Worth definitely lacks a gear even though he stays."