Tweet
When is JP buying the giant bolster ...wyck hill looks like a fine buy for national but champ needs a better gold cup ride 
-
-
@DBrowndog83
@BetfairRacing Do you think Silvinaco Conti has improved as much as bob's worth has since they last met? #askpaul
PN: Yes and i hope we get the same result again!
----------------------------------------
Invictus
Comment
-
Tony Keenan
Second-season chasers dominate the market in the Gold Cup which isn't a surprise given what they've done in the graded chases this term and the winner can be expected to come from that cohort. I'm not so much worried about the break with Bobs Worth as the fact he had a setback around the time of the Argento and he looks short enough anyway, a comment that also applies to Sir Des Champs. It's hard to get carried away with his defeat of the sick Flemenstar last time and while he may be capable of better form on decent ground (where has all the talk of a soft ground Festival gone now?), the idea that he will jump better on it is illogical; how would a horse jump better when travelling at a faster pace?
Prior to the 2012 Punchestown Festival, there hadn't been a semblance of a jumping mistake from him but after a howler at the last there it has crept into his game and gives cause for concern. He is also something of a public horse in England, punters there having latched onto him off the back of two Festival wins and he looks a touch underpriced.
It is another past Festival winner that really takes the eye at the prices. First Lieutenant is a horse I repeatedly knocked last year but he looks the play if taking his chance ahead of the Ryanair. He ties in closely with both Bobs Worth and Sir Des Champs on a few pieces of form yet is three and four times the price and there is every reason to expect him to be better than ever at the Festival, his peak efforts the last two years having come there. He is worth backing win and place for the race.Comment
-
- 12 of the last 15 winners had been placed at the festival before ( -ve Silvi Conti)
- 10 of the last 21 winners were second season chasers
- 12 of the last 13 winners had all won a race that season
- The last 12 winners were in the front three in the betting ( +ve Bobs W, Sirs Des Champs Silvi Conti)
- 11 horses priced 33/1 and bigger have been placed since 1997
- 73 of 75 horses beaten in the race before since 1994 have been beaten again. The only exceptions are Kauto Star (once) and a carried-out See More Business ( -ve Long Run, The Giant Bolster, Imperial Commander)
- 17 of the last 19 winners were aged between seven and nine
- No horse older than ten has won since 1969
- Only one horse since 1963 (Dawn Run) has won with less than six runs over fences ( -ve Bobs Worth)
Sir Des Champs the stats horse ?Last edited by Guest; 27 February 2013, 06:13 AM.Comment
-
-
JONJO O’Neill has raised the possibility of Sunnyhillboy running in the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Although Sunnyhillboy is not expected to be a contender to retain the title after Synchronised’s victory for the stable last year, it is more part of his preparation for the John Smith’s Grand National.
While the Gold Cup hero lost his life at Aintree, Sunnyhillboy was denied victory by only a nose.
He made a promising reappearance over hurdles at Haydock but was pulled up at Warwick last month.
“I’ve got him in the Pertemps, but there will be 28 runners there and I wouldn’t want anything to happen to him,” said the trainer. “I’m not sure where we’ll go, but the plan is really Aintree.
“He could well run at Cheltenham and there would be fewer runners in the Gold Cup so it might be an option.”Comment
-
-
Preview from http://www.cheltenhamfestivalinfo.co...cup-day?id=395
Intro
The feature race of the entire week arrives on the Friday; when wallets have been pounded and one can only hope the bookies are propping each other up in collective agony. We are missing recent luminaries, Kauto Star and Denman, and sadly last year’s departed winner, Synchronised. Yet, in their absence, we have potentially the most competitive Gold Cup seen for years – with half a dozen horses in with a serious chance of lifting the famous prize.
A fairly basic requirement you would have thought is to have previously won at the highest grade which is backed up by the last 13 winners having previously won a Grade 1 race. The key Grade 1 race has unquestionably been the William Hill King George VI Chase won for a second time by Long Run this season as that race has highlighted nine of the last 13 Gold Cup winners (five winners in the last ten years have successfully completed the King George-Gold Cup double). His stablemate, Bobs Worth, may start favourite and if he is to become the sixth horse to add the Gold Cup to his Hennessy win, he will have to do it off just one start this season and the last winner to achieve that was Garrison Savannah in 1992. Notable names to have tried and failed have included Looks Like Trouble (started favourite) and Denman (started second-favourite). Imperial Commander will also be attempting to win back his title off just one run at the age of 12 but only Kauto Star has regained the Gold Cup after losing it and even ten-year-olds struggle in the Gold Cup these days with just one winner in the last 18 runnings let alone 12-year-olds. The last winner aged over ten was back in 1969.
Only one of the last 14 winners failed to win earlier in the season, nine of the last 12 winners had won or finished second at the Cheltenham Festival before and ten of the last 21 winners were second-season chasers from considerably less than 50% representation and they hold excellent claims this season likely to feature the first three in the betting; Bobs Worth, Silviniaco Conti and Sir Des Champs. The latter is Ireland’s big hope in a race they have struggled badly in since supplying the 1-2-3 in 2006. His close-up fourth in the Lexus (featured 4 of the last 8 winners) was followed up a victory in the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup, a race that has surprisingly failed to feature the winner since Imperial Call in 1996. The Betfair Chase at Haydock in which Silviniaco Conti beat Long Run and The Giant Bolster, however, has a very good record since it has only been run since 2006 but has featured three winners. You may also want to consider that the last 12 winners could be found in the first three in the betting, 11 of the last 12 winners had a BHA rating of 166+ entering the race and front-runners have averaged almost a win every five Gold Cups over the last three decades.
Our View
Near the head of the betting is the 2011 winner, Long Run. A fitting place to start, being the elder statesman in a race filled with young pretenders of class and promise. Nicky Henderson’s gutsy chaser has looked a little out of sorts recently, following his third place finish in last year’s race to the gallant Synchronised. He won the King George at Christmas, a courageous last gasp surge denying Captain Chris, but I’m not sure his class will be enough to get the job done against a field of precocious talent. Another former winner is Nigel Twiston Davies’ Imperial Commander, and he warrants respect. Off the race course for 2 years following injury in the 2011 Gold Cup, he slammed Denman by 7 lengths when crowned champion the year before. He covered himself in glory when returning in the Argento Chase here in January, getting touched off by the improving Cape Tribulation, having burned off a strong field. The heart will be backing him to avoid the bounce and bring his class to the table, serious horse with an imposing determination.
Silviniaco Conti beat Long Run in the Betfair Chase at Haydock and dispatched a solid looking field in the Denman Chase at Newbury – the Giant Bolster seven lengths behind. Paul Nicholls told us early on that this he would be his Gold Cup horse and he’s performed well against top fields all season. Captain Chris has been kept busy and ran a blinder when mugged by Long Run in the final 100 yards at Christmas. Phillip Hobbs has a lovely horse who is versatile and classy, and for me he looks a lively contender but for next year’s race. He got tapped for pace in the King George and stayed on relentlessly but conditions were poor that day and I’m not convinced a strong pace on good ground over the distance will see him in his best light – I suppose I question his toughness.
The Irish challenge sees Sir Des Champs being talked about in winning terms by many respected judges, and he has course form in the shape of two festival wins – the Martin Pipe and the Jewson. He ran well in the Lexus, especially as the race was not run to suit. The Irish Hennessy saw him gain revenge on Flemenstar, whose connections immediately stated he hadn’t got home. His form doesn’t cut it for me, I like his Cheltenham credentials but he goes into the second wave of horses that need to step up on what they have done to date. First Lieutenant is a grand horse, one I really like at Cheltenham and Mouse Morris suggests this is the race for him. At current prices of 14/1, I think he represents very good each way value.
The favourite is Bobs Worth (3/1), and it’s easy to see why. Winning 8 of his last 10 races, including four victories at Cheltenham, with the pick being his win in the Albert Bartlett and the impressive victory in last year’s RSA Chase. It was a superb performance against a very decent Cheltenham animal – First Lieutenant. He beat that rival into third in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury in December, with subsequent Lexus winner Tidal Bay in second. He has the profile of a horse that is still improving, it’s a course he loves and he has the best trainer in the business steering him. We learned today that the preparation has gone very well and the trainer believed missing the Argento was a blessing, given conditions and the attritional pace. There are several horses you can make serious cases for, but this lad is some way ahead of the field on what he has done to date and I think the price may collapse further by the Friday – on the back of a strong week from Nicky Henderson.
CFI Selection: 1st March 2013
Bobs Worth – 5pts WIN @ 3/1 Bet365
First Lieutenant – 1pt EW @ 12/1 BetfredComment
-
AGE Long Run in 2011 as a 6yr old, Cool Dawn ’98 and Cool Ground ’93, both 10 yr olds are only winners in last 21 not to have been aged between 7 and 9. No horse older than 10 has won this since What A Myth ’69. Midnight Chase In last 11yrs, of those 10 yrs or older to have run, Denman (twice), Kauto Star, Mon Mome, Hedgehunter ’06 and See More Business '02 all placed. I went to check this stat expecting to find a lot of 10 yr olds to be 16/1 and above. Certainly is a few of those however unplaced 10 yr olds did include Kauto 3/1 pu last year, 8/11 fell, See More Business 9/4 fav in '00, Looks Like Trouble 9/2 fav '02, Commanche Court 8/1 '03, Grey Abbey 15/2 '05, Beef or Salmon 4/1 fav in '06. When Hedgehunter was placed in '06 it was also only his 15th chase.
Apart from Kauto (20) no other winner in past 16 years had more than 14 chases before GC (Long Run had 9). To be fair to Mr Nicholls, See More Business was placed at 40/1 as a 12 yr old (his 26th chase). In fact, apart from Kauto, the last 12 winners between 6 and 12 runs over fences. The Fellow ’94, 28th run over fences but only eleven in GB). Even Best Mate’s third success was only his 13th chase (Midnight Chase has 19 chase runs)
BETTING 6 of the last 10 favourites have won. Currently the best performing race for favourites throughout the whole Festival by a country mile. (First run in this format in 1924, 28 favourites have won this from 84 runnings - Lovely pointless information). Before Best Mate’s second win in 2003, 7 of previous 11 favourites had been 5/2 and under and all of those were beaten. Before Best Mate’s two successes as winning favourite, the last 11 favourites who started 7/4 and under were all beaten.
Past 13 winners all from first three in the market. Longest priced of those winners - Sychronised 8/1 co third favourite (God Rest His Soul).
PLACES In the past 16, horses starting 16/1 or bigger have achieved 17 top three finishes. Two wins, eight runners up and seven thirds. The Giant Bolster 50/1 runner up last year, Mon Mome 50/1 third 2010.
STAYERS Lots of non stayers have been found out over 3 miles 2 furlongs. Examples include Wayward Lad, Celtic Shot, Bradbury Star, Merry Gale, Dublin Flyer, One Man, Strong Promise and (some say) Florida Pearl. However only 13 of last 23 had previously won over a distance in excess of 3m. (Long Run and Imperial Commander had not). Before Kauto regained GC in '09, Denman '08 was first of 5 to have previously run in a race in excess of 3m.
No novices successful since Captain Christy ’74. (None ran in the last 8). Dynaste?
IRISH TRAINED In 14 years, 2 winners and 9 placed from 33 runners (China Rock on his own last year 'disputed 2nd 4 out, weakened', finished 8th). Sir Des Champs, First Lieutenant
M/D.Pipe. 3 placed horses in career total of 30 losers. No entries last three years. Grand Cru, Dynaste
CLASS - King George Winners Since Arkle, Desert Orchid, Best Mate ‘03, Kicking King, Kauto Star (twice) and Long Run have done the King George/Gold Cup double in the same season. Best Mate was second in King George ‘01. (and didn’t run in King George ‘03 before winning GC in '04). Long Run
Placed in this season's King George. 10 of the last 16 Gold Cup winners competed in that years King George. However record of placed horses in that season's King George is patchy at best Captain Chris, Grand Cru. '94 The Fellow and '97 Mr Mulligan both won after solid performances in the Kempton race. Since '97, 11 of those finishing 2nd or 3rd at Kempton have taken their chance in March. Best Mate won, Exotic Dancer finished 2nd at Cheltenham, both Kauto 2011 and Long Run last year finished 3rd. Albertas Run unpl '09 won Ryanair '10. See More Business and Looks Like Trouble both won Gold Cups after being pulled up in December.
Previous quality track form. 11 of the last 15 Gold Cup winners had finished 1st or 2nd at a previous Festival. Not Synchronised, Kauto (obviously first time), Imperial Call See More Business. Long Run beaten short head into third in 2010 RSA Chase. 20 from last 24 either course winners or placed at a previous festival (exceptions include Synchronised, Imperial Call, and Kauto). Synchronised came here from a facile Lexus win, Imperial Call won an Irish Hennessey. War of Attrition came from being 2nd to Beef or Salmon in a Hennessey at Leopardstown and had won a G2 in November. Kauto came from winning the G2 Aon he had won the King George that season).
Imperial Call '96 and Jodami '93 last two Gold Cup winners without any previous course experience. Both came directly from winning the Irish Hennessey.
Last 13 all previous Grade 1 Chase winners.
Apart from Imperial Commander, previous 13 had all won that season. (Commander had been beaten a nose at Haydock in Betfair Chase).
22 out of last 25 finished at least 3rd last time (exceptions are Imperial Commander unpl King George, Cool Dawn PU with an injury problem and Mr Mulligan, fell at last when second in King George).
Irish Breds have won the 11 from last 15 (Imperial by Fleminsfirth and English Bred? ,Kauto and Long Run, both French Bred).
It was The Pillar Chase (now the Argento). First became a recognised Gold Cup Trial in ’95 when Master Oats did the double. Since then only Pillar winners to have competed in both are Looks Like Trouble (Gold Cup Winner), Behrajan (5th) Grey Abbey (5th), Exotic Dancer (2nd), Neptune Collonges (8th). Midnight Chase (7th last year). See More Business ’99 was third in the Pillar before winning the Gold Cup that year. (Cape Tribulation).
Irish Hennessey has provided Jodami and Imperial Call. Synchronised first to do the double since ‘96. (Tidal Bay injured)
Cool Dawn in 1998 is the last Gold Cup winner not to have run in that season's King George or Lexus Chase. Tidal Bay, First Lieutenant, Flemenstar, Sir Des Champs, Long Run, Captain Chris et al.
Desert Orchid 1989 last winner of this to have previously contested a graded non novice race over 2 miles (Nick Mordin). Silviniaco Conti
The winner of the Charlie Hall chase has not won that season's Gold Cup since at least 1988. Looks Like Trouble 2000 was third at Wetherby and then did the Argento/Gold Cup double. Silviniaco Conti
15 from last 17 no more than 4 previous runs that season (Kauto 5 in '08, Long Run 2 last year). All since Garrison Savannah had more than one run. Garrison in '91 the last winner not to have run since before Boxing Day. Apart from The Fellow and Kauto (first time) all other winners at least 31 days off before this (15th February).
Since '87 all bar Nortons Coin had their prep run over 3 miles.
Last 24 all had their seasonal debuts before Christmas. However 8 of the past 11 not run since December 31st.
8 of the last 16 achieved a F, B, P or U in their form figures that season. (Synchronised PU in April before)
RSA DOUBLE Completed by Garrison Savannah ‘91, Looks Like Trouble ‘00 and Denman '07. That is, three from the last 10 to try. Of the four 10/1 and under, two winners and a third. Mr. Mulligan second in the former when short priced favourite and Florida Pearl was placed twice in this race after winning the former. Bobs Worth.
Kauto Star first horse since Bregawn ’83 to improve on a placed effort to win the next season Gold Cup. And the first since Kerstin in ‘58 to improve from runner up to winner 12 months later. Since The Fellow, all bar See More Business and Kauto of the last 65 to get beat in a Gold Cup and come back again have been beaten again. This years suspects may include The Giant Bolster, Long Run, Midnight Chase, China Rock, What A Friend and Imperial Commander
Kauto Star first horse to ever regain the Gold Cup. Before Kauto, See More Business was the only GC winner to try and regain it since Jodami. He tried twice, best 3rd once at 40s as a 12 yr old. Between '89 and '95, 5 tried, all no hopers apart from Jodami '95 7/2 unpl and injured after coming from an Irish Hennessey win, Desert Orchid 4/1 3rd to Garrison Savannah in '91 after 4/6 winner of 4 runner limited handicap Agfa Diamond Chase. Conclusion - being the first to regain the GC may not be the wonder stat it has been painted however even being able to attempt it illustrates the fragility of racehorses and the skills of P Nicholls. Long Run
RATINGS 10 from last 11 rated 166+ before win (War Of Attrition 157). Underrated Synchronised was 166.
TIMES 2012 below standard 6.36. In 2011 they went round in a track record in just under 6 mins 30 secs, 7 secs under standard, !n 2010 (Imperial Commander) the ground was also given as good - time was 6 mnis 49. In the previous 3 the ground was given as good to soft. '09 Kauto 6 mins 49secs. '08 Denman 6 mins 47 secs. Kauto Star’s first win was 6 mins 40 in what appeared to be a slowly run race. Doesn’t stand up too badly. Only Looks like Trouble 6.30 (Good to Firm) and War of Attrition 6.31 have put it in the shade. The roll then reads Mr Mulligan 6.35, Cool Dawn and Best Mate (2) 6.39, Kauto, See More Business 6.41, Kicking King and Best Mate (3) 6.42 and Best Mate (1) 6.50.
Argento time 2013 7 minutes 16 secs in a bog. Cape Tribulation beat Imperial Commander
BLINKERS - No headgear winners in 10 yrs from 23 triers
TIPSTERS Only Segal, Gault and Tigs lumped onto the Synch at fancy prices. No other correct tipsters in the box.Comment
-
Welcome back G1...your own work I hope.Comment
-
Good stats g1. Thanks for link.Comment
-
Tough news for Imperial Commander connections ...he wont get another chance. I might back him for the National now though.Comment
-
Fat Jockey @FatJockeyTips
#LongRun have never finished out of the first 3. 10/1 ew for Gold Cup at William Hill. Get you A/c at http://goo.gl/gVAY3 #CheltFestComment
-
donn
the betting for the Gold Cup looks about right (it has had long enough to morph into its correct form) and it is difficult to find an angle. It isn’t surprising that the top three in the market are the three second-season chasers, given that circumstances (no Kauto, no Denman, no Synchronised) are right for a changing of the guard.
It is correct that Bobs Worth is favourite. He is four for four at Cheltenham, two for two at the Festival, he won the Hennessy off a mark of 160 and the two horses who chased him home at Newbury fought out the finish of the Lexus a month later. That is rock solid form. He hasn’t run since then, but Barry Gergaghty reports him in fine fettle.
If there is an angle in the race, it is Sir Des Champs. He isn’t a mad price, he never has been, not since they cut him from initial quotes of 16/1 after he won last year’s Jewson Chase to 12/1 before you could say I’ll have 16 monkeys please Bob. But 5.2 or 5.3 is fair in a race that really lacks depth when you meander outside the top three.
With Sir Des Champs, you are relying on promise. He has just been progressing nicely all season, from the Durkan Chase to the Lexus, from the Lexus to the Hennessy, all the while getting better, and you just expect that Willie Mullins will have him primed to explode on Gold Cup day.
He will probably need to if he is going to beat a right-as-rain Bobs Worth, but the Gigginstown horse is also two for two at the Festival, and he should improve for the step up to three miles and two and a half furlongs, and for the better ground that he will probably encounter on Gold Cup day.Comment
Comment