Cheltenham 2026 Prices

[Istabraq]

Oh no,I fully expect him to defend the KG crown, just not sure I'd be taking a price on him for next season round here until nearer the time, all through the build up Joseph was keen to mention ground would dictate his target & if it was on the heavier side of soft he'd be happy to skip altogether, so given he was stating himself & connections would be happy to miss a chance at a Gold cup with a legitimate contender I wouldn't want him onside just yet and think his price will hold right up until he lines up at Kempton in december.

He's just had the best ground he could ever hope for and didn't get home in the Gold Cup (by some distance) which for me just confirms the different demands of Kempton and Cheltenham.
I agree his targets will be entirely ground dependent but don't see JOB writing off Cheltenham unless the heavens open, and at this stage I'm of the view should he make Cheltenham it would be for a Ryanair.
12/1 isn't a great price but should he make the race I think he'll be going off at Fact to File prices and that one will be heading to the Gold Cup, the question is whether 12/1 represents enough value to get involved right now, I'm unsure...

[knockando]

….notice 365 have finally cut Derryhassen Paddy, now 28-1 from 33-1 (BANC).

Sporting Life put him up as part of their antepost selections for next year, which will have been part of the collapse, but obviously was mainly Eggs 's tenner which caused the market move.

For anyone not seen it, they also put up:

Fact to File for GC at 6s;
Windbeneathmywings 40s for supreme; and
Jonbon 10s for CC

I've backed Derry - can't say I loved the other shouts too much, and am resisting the urge to slavishly follow and back a supreme horse this early on... ***

*** obviously this time next year in 2026 when windbeneathmywings has pissed in at 6/4 I'll be the mug.

[EnvoiAlien]

As Derryhassen Paddy is getting a few mentions I thought I'd share this which is interesting, hope Ben from NTF doesn't mind me sharing his work, It was from an email he sent out so should be fine, cheers Ben

DERRYHASSEN PADDY
This capped off a fine season of novice hurdling for the imposing 6yo and he looks an exciting prospect for fences next season... this is only the second horse Lucinda Russell has ever run in this race, the other being 2012 winner BRINDISI BREEZE, who also came in with an unbeaten Hurdles record... sadly we never got to see Brindisi Breeze on the track again but it maybe shows how highly they rate this one that he’s only the second horses they’ve ever run in ANY G1 Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.
Worth noting that he’s by ARCTIC COSMOS and his offspring tend to take a run to find their feet over fences, with stats for ARCTIC COSMOS offspring on chase debut reading... 0/39, 7p... which we can view a couple of ways... should DERRYHASSEN PADDY get beat on chase debut then it’s nothing to worry about, he’s just following the same trajectory that all his sire’s kids do over fences... on the other hand, should he WIN on Chase debut we could be looking at a VERY high class chase prospect in the making, as he would be doing something none of the other offspring had so far managed to do (WIN on Chase debut).

[Istabraq]

*** obviously this time next year in 2026 when windbeneathmywings has pissed in at 6/4 I'll be the mug.

This year has once again confirmed this years bumper horses and next years novice hurdle division is one to swerve until the latest possible time.
If the markets were to be believed Kopek was heading to the Turners and Final Demand was heading to the Bartlett right up until the DRF, you need balls the size of hot air balloons to be getting involved with Mullins horses so far out.
As for the King horse we have the even bigger issue in that we haven't seen him come up the hill, so is he a Supreme, Turners or Bartlett horse ?
Or a handicapper ?
Or a right hand bully ?
Who knows.
40/1 I can see the interest but not sure there's a price big enough for me to get involved right now...

[archie]

From the Bartlett, I'd be taking Wendigo over Derryhassen Paddy. Wiped out by The Big Westerner after the second last and would, in my opinion, have finished third without that. 25/1 seems about fair given the trainer's comments that he'll be put away now for chasing next season.

[knockando]

This year has once again confirmed this years bumper horses and next years novice hurdle division is one to swerve until the latest possible time.
If the markets were to be believed Kopek was heading to the Turners and Final Demand was heading to the Bartlett right up until the DRF, you need balls the size of hot air balloons to be getting involved with Mullins horses so far out.
As for the King horse we have the even bigger issue in that we haven't seen him come up the hill, so is he a Supreme, Turners or Bartlett horse ?
Or a handicapper ?
Or a right hand bully ?
Who knows.
40/1 I can see the interest but not sure there's a price big enough for me to get involved right now...

100% and couldn't agree more. If there is one major learning for me too re backing Mullins (at a later point in season)...it's to cover for BOTH the ballymore and supreme regardless if one is talked up.

Being the moron I am, I got stung by backing Ballyburn for Supreme (not Ballymore) in 2024, and this year.....backed Kopek for the Ballymore and not the Supreme....so obviously was almost sick when he crossed the line and the Oles started last week at approx 1.24pm on the Tuesday

[Ice]

From the Bartlett, I'd be taking Wendigo over Derryhassen Paddy. Wiped out by The Big Westerner after the second last and would, in my opinion, have finished third without that. 25/1 seems about fair given the trainer's comments that he'll be put away now for chasing next season.

This years Bartlett could turn out to be a decent one, few nice ones in there.

[Eggs]

From the Bartlett, I'd be taking Wendigo over Derryhassen Paddy. Wiped out by The Big Westerner after the second last and would, in my opinion, have finished third without that. 25/1 seems about fair given the trainer's comments that he'll be put away now for chasing next season.

…I like him too, Archie. I remember earlier in the season a number of posters saying he’d be a chaser to follow and then he ran very well in AB despite meeting so much trouble.

[Sprinter Sacre]

I've had a bit of the 40s Each Way for the Gold Cup

They dont seem.to think the injury is going to hold him up at the start of the next season.

So given how good he looked. Debuting straight into that Grade 2 at Newburys big winter meeting, then followed it up with a smooth Grade 1 win at Kempton.

Then it's easy to think that horse could've had a massive impact in the BANC (but for his injury), and he could be the staying Novice Chaser to take out of this season with a view to next seasons King George and Gold Cup - at a big price, to soothe the risk of backing an injured horse.

His stablemate Handstands is decent too.

Plus Lecky of course.

There's a premium article published an hour ago on the Racing Post titled 'Ben Pauling has 2026 Gold Cup aspirations for sidelined The Jukebox Man - plus ground will dictate Handstands Aintree target'.

[FinalFurlong91]

This years Bartlett could turn out to be a decent one, few nice ones in there.

I'm not sure personally

That jasmin de vaux was able to win despite jumping poorly again perhaps says as much about the rest of the horses as it does about him

Race IQ has him 14th of 14 finishers in the field for jumping.

He was 20th of 20 for speed lost at obstacles

Juries out for me on that lot

Final demand and the yellow clay look a lot lot better than anything from the bartlett to me. But they are priced accordingly.

[EnvoiAlien]

There's a premium article published an hour ago on the Racing Post titled 'Ben Pauling has 2026 Gold Cup aspirations for sidelined The Jukebox Man - plus ground will dictate Handstands Aintree target'.

For a moment I considered getting a membership, but surely someone will share it here

[Ice]

I'm not sure personally

That jasmin de vaux was able to win despite jumping poorly again perhaps says as much about the rest of the horses as it does about him

Race IQ has him 14th of 14 finishers in the field for jumping.

He was 20th of 20 for speed lost at obstacles

Juries out for me on that lot

Final demand and the yellow clay look a lot lot better than anything from the bartlett to me. But they are priced accordingly.

I wouldn't argue the turners lot look much better but i still think there'll be a couple of nice ones from the bartlett for staying novice chases, I've backed wendigo and paddy for the banc so i bloody hope so anyway !

[The_Dreamer]

I really like Jade De Grugy for the Mares Chase next season. Willie says a lot of things but he did mention chasing for her before she had a set back. She looks to me like she wants a fence. Alot would depend on plans for Kargese but I think she will be kept over hurdles next season. 14/1 best price available now seem worth covering. Was some 20/1 up until yesterday.

[AaronLad]

I'm not sure personally

That jasmin de vaux was able to win despite jumping poorly again perhaps says as much about the rest of the horses as it does about him

Race IQ has him 14th of 14 finishers in the field for jumping.

He was 20th of 20 for speed lost at obstacles

Juries out for me on that lot

Final demand and the yellow clay look a lot lot better than anything from the bartlett to me. But they are priced accordingly.

I'd be cautious of judging the potential ability some of the runners have over fences, by using the race iq data from the Albert Bartlett.

Just as an example, stellar story was 12th of 13 runners (AB 2024) on the same two metrics which you have used above, jumping index and speed lost.
(Ironically, lecky watson finished 1st on both but finished 5th)

Behind him that day he had lecky watson (banc winner) but also behind he had two of the most exciting novice chasers from this season, both unfortunately suffering with bad luck with health, the jukebox man and Gidleigh park.

So essentially I wouldn't be judging those in behind as mediocre because JDV jumped so poorly and they couldn't beat him in a hurdle race, it doesn't necessarily mean they can't become top class over fences.

[Exar Essay]

I'd be cautious of judging the potential ability some of the banc runners have over fences, by using the race iq data from the Albert Bartlett.

Just as an example, stellar story was 12th of 13 runners (AB 2024) on the same two metrics which you have used above, jumping index and speed lost.
(Ironically, lecky watson finished 1st on both but finished 5th)

Behind him that day he had lecky watson (banc winner) but also behind he had two of the most exciting novice chasers from this season, both unfortunately suffering with bad luck with health, the jukebox man and Gidleigh park.

So essentially I wouldn't be judging those in behind as mediocre because JDV jumped so poorly and they couldn't beat him in a hurdle race, it doesn't necessarily mean they can't become top class over fences.

I agree with this. Also, RaceIQ downgrades you for inefficiency. Paul was deliberately letting Jasmin pop hurdles around the first circuit and a bit to get him warmed up. Completely inefficient way of jumping but was what he needed to use his engine later on. I’d be interested to know his score over the last four hurdles as he seemed much more effective at those.