Day 2 Festival Yankee - Captain :- Yosser

[Eggs]

….todays the day

[Yosser]

….todays the day

Yes Eggs will do it when i am home from work. Job and knock today, should be off around 2-3

[Yosser]

Ok folks. So the Yankee has been decided. I will post my reasoning for it below the selections. The selections come with the best prices available if you are lucky enough to have the right accounts. Some will like them, some will like some of them and some will like none of them and i know there are a couple of horses people are keen on that haven't made it. I think they all have a top chance of at least placing and have a decent enough chance of winning.

Last year, my book yielded 21 winners from 27 races with a multitude of placed horses. I have never mentioned this because i just don't think people would have believed me, but it's true (And i would have had the XC winner). If i can get anywhere near that again i will be happy as my stakes are higher this time. I (like many others on here) spend every day from the end of the festival to the start of the next one, looking for angles, trends and horses for the next spring. That's why i spent April through the summer on here dragging up threads and trying to engage conversation with whoever was still around. It's something i take very seriously because we are playing for real money. I know Jackie has ribbed me a bit because i have mentioned loads of horses that have been on various lengthy lists but that is how it starts, every race has 2 pages or so of horses on them that get whittled down one way or another before and during the season until i am left with about 10 for each. (took a bit of a hammering with injuries in the past month) I then whittle that down a bit more and allow for steamers coming out of the woodwork (imports mainly, as we know, OJA is the bible and most of those come from here before the market knows what has hit it) and usually end up backing about 7 per race minus handicaps which is a max of 5. Sometimes i go over and take a small hit. My rationale is getting a winner at 12/1 breaks me even straight away. Anything over is profit with the place money being the bonus. For instance, the Supreme reads, in current betting order. Kopek 20/1 e/w, Mundi 25/1 e/w, Romeo 16/1 e/w, William Munny 25/1 e/w, Workahead 25/1 e/w, Karbau 25/1 e/w and Kel Histoire 25/1 e/w and most races follow that trend. Lost Kaid D'authie from that race. I know i come out with novicey statements sometimes because i am no expert but i do know what i am doing. That doesn't mean the yankee will be any good because it is Cheltenham and the value is diminishing and its bloody hard I have had to go with what i think is going to happen regarding the yankee so here it is. It's an e/w bet but you can play it however you like. I know it's only a bit of fun but i have trawled the day 2 races to find whatever juice i could find left in the market.

Brown Advisory - Stellar Story - 14/1
Cross Country - Bussleton - 10/1
Champion Chase - Marine Nationale - 7/1
Grand Annual - Path D'oroux - 14/1 / Bumper - Kalypsochance 13/2 (reasons mentioned in below posts)


So, why these selections?

Marine Nationale - The Champion Chase is notorious for favourites bombing out and although Jonbon is rock solid and has a superb race record, his quirks could open the door for a mistake. I like the way Barry Connell has campaigned MN this season. There was a lot of talk about his wind before the season and after his debut run but as i expected, he has improved a lot for race fitness after missing a long time off. With Gaelic Warrior and Il Est Francais seemingly aiming elsewhere, his 7/1 won't be around long. I love the Found A Fifty shout and have him at a huge price but i think MN is the clever bet. I would love MN to win for the Mikey O'Sullivans family and the charity bet.

Bussleton - The Naiad. How could i leave this guy out. The support for him since Paul put him up has been sustained, helped by the unfortunate passing of Delta Work. He is getting very popular on the preview circuits and is seemingly shortening by the day. Stumptown is the weakest favourite of the festival for me. The hike in the weights will make life very difficult and the chances of the Cross Country course being good ground for Galvin should be slim. It's known for it's incredibly poor drainage and Galvin's chances rest on it being decent ground. I can only see Bussleton's price contracting all the time.

Stellar Story - This one is going to split opinion. Better Days Ahead i hear you all say is the e/w bet here but he hasn't impressed me as yet this season even though i have him backed. (i have the top 6 backed) but his finishing efforts have left a lot to be desired. It's clear and obvious that what we know, Ballyburn and Dancing City are very good horses but the ground is going to go against one of them. I think that will be Dancing City, i think it will be decent enough ground so will play into Ballyburn's favour. Ballyburn is a keen going sort though and i fully expect this race to be run at a steady pace, he could easily pull his chance away. Stellar Story won an gruelling Bartlett beating The Jukebox Man and Dancing City so has the form in the book. His chase career so far has been hit and miss, he made a horlicks on debut but still won, he then blew out and was given an easy time and last time out he took a much steadier approach and the improvement was very clear to see. As much as i would love a Croke Park win because of the big price i have, i think Stellar Story is the unsung horse in here. He could quite easily find the improvement to go by the lot of them. He is a guaranteed stayer, he is on the improve but he needs a good round of jumping, however the same applies to most of the field. He get's the nod over another Gigginstown horse, Kalypsochance, who was next on the list in the Bumper.

Path D'oroux - WHAT!! No Unexpected Party. Unfortunately not. I know Unexpected Party was popular but he is a little too high for my liking. When you look at the make up of the race, Liberty Hunter and Firefox could and probably should go elsewhere as they have huge tasks at the weights. I think they will both defect to different races and the rest of the field will shorten. Path D'oroux is rock solid almost in every race he runs in. His rating never seems to move much and is nearly always in the top 3 or 4. He has run in here before, he is trained by the new shrewd Gavin Cromwell and he has course and distance winning form and i see no reason he won't be aimed back here. The King Of Prs was also under serious consideration for the same connections and has been coming to the boil nicely but fell in this race last year when well held. As much as i want Path D'oroux to win, i would also love to see Jazzy Matty win for the O'Sullivans and charity bet. The only other time i was happy to throw a bet in the bin was when Honeysuckle won the Mares for the De Bromheads after Jack's death. That was the best lump in throat moment post race i have ever seen at Chetlenham.

So, if you got this far down, you have just read War And Peace and they are the bets. Hopefully they meet expectations and hopefully they bloody win. The win part of this Yankee from a 25p each way bet (£5.50 total) pays around £7000. If they all place it's around £75 and then all the in between bits pay various amounts with one or two winners chucked in etc. Let the fun begin. 1 more week at work then it's Christmas again.

[DenmanSacre]

Ok folks. So the Yankee has been decided. I will post my reasoning for it below the selections. The selections come with the best prices available if you are lucky enough to have the right accounts. Some will like them, some will like some of them and some will like none of them and i know there are a couple of horses people are keen on that haven't made it. I think they all have a top chance of at least placing and have a decent enough chance of winning.

Last year, my book yielded 21 winners from 27 races with a multitude of placed horses. I have never mentioned this because i just don't think people would have believed me, but it's true (And i would have had the XC winner). If i can get anywhere near that again i will be happy as my stakes are higher this time. I (like many others on here) spend every day from the end of the festival to the start of the next one, looking for angles, trends and horses for the next spring. That's why i spent April through the summer on here dragging up threads and trying to engage conversation with whoever was still around. It's something i take very seriously because we are playing for real money. I know Jackie has ribbed me a bit because i have mentioned loads of horses that have been on various lengthy lists but that is how it starts, every race has 2 pages or so of horses on them that get whittled down one way or another before and during the season until i am left with about 10 for each. (took a bit of a hammering with injuries in the past month) I then whittle that down a bit more and allow for steamers coming out of the woodwork (imports mainly, as we know, OJA is the bible and most of those come from here before the market knows what has hit it) and usually end up backing about 7 per race minus handicaps which is a max of 5. Sometimes i go over and take a small hit. My rationale is getting a winner at 12/1 breaks me even straight away. Anything over is profit with the place money being the bonus. For instance, the Supreme reads, in current betting order. Kopek 20/1 e/w, Mundi 25/1 e/w, Romeo 16/1 e/w, William Munny 25/1 e/w, Workahead 25/1 e/w, Karbau 25/1 e/w and Kel Histoire 25/1 e/w and most races follow that trend. Lost Kaid D'authie from that race. I know i come out with novicey statements sometimes because i am no expert but i do know what i am doing. That doesn't mean the yankee will be any good because it is Cheltenham and the value is diminishing and its bloody hard I have had to go with what i think is going to happen regarding the yankee so here it is. It's an e/w bet but you can play it however you like. I know it's only a bit of fun but i have trawled the day 2 races to find whatever juice i could find left in the market.

Brown Advisory - Stellar Story - 14/1
Cross Country - Bussleton - 10/1
Champion Chase - Marine Nationale - 7/1
Grand Annual - Path D'oroux - 14/1


So, why these selections?

Marine Nationale - The Champion Chase is notorious for favourites bombing out and although Jonbon is rock solid and has a superb race record, his quirks could open the door for a mistake. I like the way Barry Connell has campaigned MN this season. There was a lot of talk about his wind before the season and after his debut run but as i expected, he has improved a lot for race fitness after missing a long time off. With Gaelic Warrior and Il Est Francais seemingly aiming elsewhere, his 7/1 won't be around long. I love the Found A Fifty shout and have him at a huge price but i think MN is the clever bet. I would love MN to win for the Mikey O'Sullivans family and the charity bet.

Bussleton - The Naiad. How could i leave this guy out. The support for him since Paul put him up has been sustained, helped by the unfortunate passing of Delta Work. He is getting very popular on the preview circuits and is seemingly shortening by the day. Stumptown is the weakest favourite of the festival for me. The hike in the weights will make life very difficult and the chances of the Cross Country course being good ground for Galvin should be slim. It's known for it's incredibly poor drainage and Galvin's chances rest on it being decent ground. I can only see Bussleton's price contracting all the time.

Stellar Story - This one is going to split opinion. Better Days Ahead i hear you all say is the e/w bet here but he hasn't impressed me as yet this season even though i have him backed. (i have the top 6 backed) but his finishing efforts have left a lot to be desired. It's clear and obvious that what we know, Ballyburn and Dancing City are very good horses but the ground is going to go against one of them. I think that will be Dancing City, i think it will be decent enough ground so will play into Ballyburn's favour. Ballyburn is a keen going sort though and i fully expect this race to be run at a steady pace, he could easily pull his chance away. Stellar Story won an gruelling Bartlett beating The Jukebox Man and Dancing City so has the form in the book. His chase career so far has been hit and miss, he made a horlicks on debut but still won, he then blew out and was given an easy time and last time out he took a much steadier approach and the improvement was very clear to see. As much as i would love a Croke Park win because of the big price i have, i think Stellar Story is the unsung horse in here. He could quite easily find the improvement to go by the lot of them. He is a guaranteed stayer, he is on the improve but he needs a good round of jumping, however the same applies to most of the field. He get's the nod over another Gigginstown horse, Kalypsochance, who was next on the list in the Bumper.

Path D'oroux - WHAT!! No Unexpected Party. Unfortunately not. I know Unexpected Party was popular but he is a little too high for my liking. When you look at the make up of the race, Liberty Hunter and Firefox could and probably should go elsewhere as they have huge tasks at the weights. I think they will both defect to different races and the rest of the field will shorten. Path D'oroux is rock solid almost in every race he runs in. His rating never seems to move much and is nearly always in the top 3 or 4. He has run in here before, he is trained by the new shrewd Gavin Cromwell and he has course and distance winning form and i see no reason he won't be aimed back here. The King Of Prs was also under serious consideration for the same connections and has been coming to the boil nicely but fell in this race last year when well held. As much as i want Path D'oroux to win, i would also love to see Jazzy Matty win for the O'Sullivans and charity bet. The only other time i was happy to throw a bet in the bin was when Honeysuckle won the Mares for the De Bromheads after Jack's death. That was the best lump in throat moment post race i have ever seen at Chetlenham.

So, if you got this far down, you have just read War And Peace and they are the bets. Hopefully they meet expectations and hopefully they bloody win. The win part of this Yankee from a 25p each way bet (£5.50 total) pays around £7000. If they all place it's around £75 and then all the in between bits pay various amounts with one or two winners chucked in etc. Let the fun begin. 1 more week at work then it's Christmas again.

Path D'Oroux may be going the Jack Richards - sound alike that or the Plate anyway

'I’m going to step him up in trip and I think the novices’ handicap chase over two-and-a-half mile at the Cheltenham Festival is where he’ll go next. I just felt watching him the last day that he might just being getting caught for a little bit of sharpness over two miles and that the longer trip might just help him. He has loads of experience for a novice and relaxes well, so he will be an interesting runner in that race.'

I think you'll need a back up so would that be Jazzy Matty?

[Quevega]

Path Droux could run here. But Gavin has said on more than one occasion that he is more likely for the Plate or Jack Richards.
Gavin has 4 other entries in the Annual.

I like the other three choices for an each way angle, although not convinced there's a need to go this early.
Which of those are likely to shorten do you think ?

[EnvoiAlien]

Loving the work,confidence and way you've approached this Yosser, very best of luck with the yankee & all your festival punts.

Given the speed involved here if you happen to be a chippie or plasterer I'll be advising you to all my friends who need something done quickly

[Yosser]

Loving the work,confidence and way you've approached this Yosser, very best of luck with the yankee & all your festival punts.

Given the speed involved here if you happen to be a chippie or plasterer I'll be advising you to all my friends who need something done quickly

I am a sprayer mate. Been doing jobs for Man City and Luton Airport today but i am in over the weekend to knock the rest off.

In regards to Path D'oroux, i hadn't seen Cromwell's comments. He fits nicely into the trends and is in good heart. I would be bemused if he went elsewhere but could also understand it. I have already played the Yankee but as mentioned, if people would like to wait to see if PD goes elsewhere we could use Jazzy Matty as the sub and i would myself re-back it.

Q - I think Marine Nationale is a certainty to shorten when Il Est Francais and Gaelic Warrior appear to be ready to leave the market. Bussleton's price seems to be contracting every day and is being talked up on almost every preview. I think the (experts) have seen the market move and are just rowing in with the tide of support and i really don't think that will stop. I have just read a post that Firefox is shortening for the Arkle already so there seems to be some movement in what i was expecting to happen and Liberty Hunter can't be a strong fav. Unexpected Party and PD i expect will shorten by a few points here. Stellar Story could do anything in the market, i just liked him

Edit of an edit - Kalypsochance was under strong consideration so he will be the substitute

[Quevega]

I am a sprayer mate. Been doing jobs for Man City and Luton Airport today but i am in over the weekend to knock the rest off.

In regards to Path D'oroux, i hadn't seen Cromwell's comments. He fits nicely into the trends and is in good heart. I would be bemused if he went elsewhere but could also understand it. I have already played the Yankee but as mentioned, if people would like to wait to see if PD goes elsewhere we could use Jazzy Matty as the sub and i would myself re-back it.

Q - I think Marine Nationale is a certainty to shorten when Il Est Francais and Gaelic Warrior appear to be ready to leave the market. Bussleton's price seems to be contracting every day and is being talked up on almost every preview. I think the (experts) have seen the market move and are just rowing in with the tide of support and i really don't think that will stop. I have just read a post that Firefox is shortening for the Arkle already so there seems to be some movement in what i was expecting to happen and Liberty Hunter can't be a strong fav. Unexpected Party and PD i expect will shorten by a few points here. Stellar Story could do anything in the market, i just liked him

Good enough for me, looks like you've given it some thought.

I had Path Droux down as one of my first bets for the annual, weeks ago, due to the collateral form - but his comments deterred me.
Looks like he'll probably stick to it also as he has so many other options, but we'll see.

[Yosser]

Good enough for me, looks like you've given it some thought.

I had Path Droux down as one of my first bets for the annual, weeks ago, due to the collateral form - but his comments deterred me.
Looks like he'll probably stick to it also as he has so many other options, but we'll see.

Yeah, with him also having The King Of Prs, it makes it a bit head scratching.

Edited the original post

[Wayward Lad]

Ok folks. So the Yankee has been decided. I will post my reasoning for it below the selections. The selections come with the best prices available if you are lucky enough to have the right accounts. Some will like them, some will like some of them and some will like none of them and i know there are a couple of horses people are keen on that haven't made it. I think they all have a top chance of at least placing and have a decent enough chance of winning.

Last year, my book yielded 21 winners from 27 races with a multitude of placed horses. I have never mentioned this because i just don't think people would have believed me, but it's true (And i would have had the XC winner). If i can get anywhere near that again i will be happy as my stakes are higher this time. I (like many others on here) spend every day from the end of the festival to the start of the next one, looking for angles, trends and horses for the next spring. That's why i spent April through the summer on here dragging up threads and trying to engage conversation with whoever was still around. It's something i take very seriously because we are playing for real money. I know Jackie has ribbed me a bit because i have mentioned loads of horses that have been on various lengthy lists but that is how it starts, every race has 2 pages or so of horses on them that get whittled down one way or another before and during the season until i am left with about 10 for each. (took a bit of a hammering with injuries in the past month) I then whittle that down a bit more and allow for steamers coming out of the woodwork (imports mainly, as we know, OJA is the bible and most of those come from here before the market knows what has hit it) and usually end up backing about 7 per race minus handicaps which is a max of 5. Sometimes i go over and take a small hit. My rationale is getting a winner at 12/1 breaks me even straight away. Anything over is profit with the place money being the bonus. For instance, the Supreme reads, in current betting order. Kopek 20/1 e/w, Mundi 25/1 e/w, Romeo 16/1 e/w, William Munny 25/1 e/w, Workahead 25/1 e/w, Karbau 25/1 e/w and Kel Histoire 25/1 e/w and most races follow that trend. Lost Kaid D'authie from that race. I know i come out with novicey statements sometimes because i am no expert but i do know what i am doing. That doesn't mean the yankee will be any good because it is Cheltenham and the value is diminishing and its bloody hard I have had to go with what i think is going to happen regarding the yankee so here it is. It's an e/w bet but you can play it however you like. I know it's only a bit of fun but i have trawled the day 2 races to find whatever juice i could find left in the market.

Brown Advisory - Stellar Story - 14/1
Cross Country - Bussleton - 10/1
Champion Chase - Marine Nationale - 7/1
Grand Annual - Path D'oroux - 14/1 / Bumper - Kalypsochance 13/2 (reasons mentioned in below posts)


So, why these selections?

Marine Nationale - The Champion Chase is notorious for favourites bombing out and although Jonbon is rock solid and has a superb race record, his quirks could open the door for a mistake. I like the way Barry Connell has campaigned MN this season. There was a lot of talk about his wind before the season and after his debut run but as i expected, he has improved a lot for race fitness after missing a long time off. With Gaelic Warrior and Il Est Francais seemingly aiming elsewhere, his 7/1 won't be around long. I love the Found A Fifty shout and have him at a huge price but i think MN is the clever bet. I would love MN to win for the Mikey O'Sullivans family and the charity bet.

Bussleton - The Naiad. How could i leave this guy out. The support for him since Paul put him up has been sustained, helped by the unfortunate passing of Delta Work. He is getting very popular on the preview circuits and is seemingly shortening by the day. Stumptown is the weakest favourite of the festival for me. The hike in the weights will make life very difficult and the chances of the Cross Country course being good ground for Galvin should be slim. It's known for it's incredibly poor drainage and Galvin's chances rest on it being decent ground. I can only see Bussleton's price contracting all the time.

Stellar Story - This one is going to split opinion. Better Days Ahead i hear you all say is the e/w bet here but he hasn't impressed me as yet this season even though i have him backed. (i have the top 6 backed) but his finishing efforts have left a lot to be desired. It's clear and obvious that what we know, Ballyburn and Dancing City are very good horses but the ground is going to go against one of them. I think that will be Dancing City, i think it will be decent enough ground so will play into Ballyburn's favour. Ballyburn is a keen going sort though and i fully expect this race to be run at a steady pace, he could easily pull his chance away. Stellar Story won an gruelling Bartlett beating The Jukebox Man and Dancing City so has the form in the book. His chase career so far has been hit and miss, he made a horlicks on debut but still won, he then blew out and was given an easy time and last time out he took a much steadier approach and the improvement was very clear to see. As much as i would love a Croke Park win because of the big price i have, i think Stellar Story is the unsung horse in here. He could quite easily find the improvement to go by the lot of them. He is a guaranteed stayer, he is on the improve but he needs a good round of jumping, however the same applies to most of the field. He get's the nod over another Gigginstown horse, Kalypsochance, who was next on the list in the Bumper.

Path D'oroux - WHAT!! No Unexpected Party. Unfortunately not. I know Unexpected Party was popular but he is a little too high for my liking. When you look at the make up of the race, Liberty Hunter and Firefox could and probably should go elsewhere as they have huge tasks at the weights. I think they will both defect to different races and the rest of the field will shorten. Path D'oroux is rock solid almost in every race he runs in. His rating never seems to move much and is nearly always in the top 3 or 4. He has run in here before, he is trained by the new shrewd Gavin Cromwell and he has course and distance winning form and i see no reason he won't be aimed back here. The King Of Prs was also under serious consideration for the same connections and has been coming to the boil nicely but fell in this race last year when well held. As much as i want Path D'oroux to win, i would also love to see Jazzy Matty win for the O'Sullivans and charity bet. The only other time i was happy to throw a bet in the bin was when Honeysuckle won the Mares for the De Bromheads after Jack's death. That was the best lump in throat moment post race i have ever seen at Chetlenham.

So, if you got this far down, you have just read War And Peace and they are the bets. Hopefully they meet expectations and hopefully they bloody win. The win part of this Yankee from a 25p each way bet (£5.50 total) pays around £7000. If they all place it's around £75 and then all the in between bits pay various amounts with one or two winners chucked in etc. Let the fun begin. 1 more week at work then it's Christmas again.

Gawd Blimey, Yossers back for sure !

Good for the Forum methinks !

[Wayward Lad]

Path Droux could run here. But Gavin has said on more than one occasion that he is more likely for the Plate or Jack Richards.
Gavin has 4 other entries in the Annual.

I like the other three choices for an each way angle, although not convinced there's a need to go this early.
Which of those are likely to shorten do you think ?

Agree

Why the idea to go early? as surely more clarity over next week ?

[Lobos]

Agree

Why the idea to go early? as surely more clarity over next week ?

But likely shorter prices. Swings and Roundabouts.

[Yosser]

But likely shorter prices. Swings and Roundabouts.

It was exactly that Lobos. Marine Nationale i don't think will be an each way player by that time and i think Bussleton will end up around 6/1. This is always the issue with trying to predict a handicapper. I think Kalypsochance is a good sub though although i hate this years bumper. He is the one that has been out twice and done it twice. He is clearly highly regarded. I am on the Yankee now with PD but will go again with Kalypso. I am very keen on Stellar Story, i haven't heard anybody talk about him so i must be in a minority of one but we will find out in little under 2 weeks whether my eyes deceive me or not. I don't think they will. I see a big race. The way he caught The Jukebox Man was really impressive. think he will be a National horse next year.

[Yosser]

Gawd Blimey, Yossers back for sure !

Good for the Forum methinks !

Just peeled back a little bit of the curtain so you could all peek into my mind. Don't open them any further though, it's like a bottle bank in there, pandora's box is nestled on the bottom somewhere

[Eggs]

….Cromwell says Path D’oroux heading to the plate.

‘Path D’Oroux is likely to step up in trip to run here (TrustATrader Plate). It’ll be his first time over two and a half miles and we’re hoping that’ll bring about improvement.

“He’s been consistent over two miles but over the longer trip I’m hopeful he’ll be a big player. He’s one I think could be one of our dark horses and might be a good each-way shout.”