Day One Festival Yankee: Captain Wayward Lad

[Runragged]

You would think so re July Flower; but 5 of the last 8 have been 7 or older. And all of Henry's three from LY were considered outsiders of the field so I genuinely wouldn't discount either from placing - even though Lantry Landy will most likely be a big price if looking a likely runner.

I like Lantry Lady as put up in my blog, but she is very ground dependent, needing it soft/very soft. Considering the forecast as it is currently then would be put off her unless it changes significantly.

On faster ground, if connections decide to run Queens Gamble then she would have a place chance at the very least.

[Birds Nest]

With the expected drying ground, Gordon mentioned nice ground is important for will do and hes going NHC, one to consider along with the short go in the ultima both would like the sunshine...

[AaronLad]

gericault roque for the NH novice handicap chase.
he also has an entry for the Kim muir but I think with the drying ground and Jack tudor being able to ride the tuesday race is most likely.
Anyway we'll know the declarations for Tuesday next Sunday.
Hes got some excellent form in valuable and ultra competitive open handicap chases, the kind of races his opponents havent been anywhere near yet.

2nd in the classic chase in 2022 off 133.
2nd in the 2022 ultima off 138
3rd in the 2022 hennessy off 139.

If the race was in the form it has been recently, level weights, I wouldn't fancy him against some of the younger opponents he's going to be up against.
But with it being a handicap I'm struggling to see how some of these are going to give him the weight they have to.

His comeback run after his lengthy lay off was encouraging and showed he more than likely retains the ability he had beforehand.

It's a risk to say hes as good as he was but does he need to be? he's running off 131, 7lbs lower than what he was when getting 2lbs off and finishing 3 lengths behind corach rambler in the 2022 ultima. some form that is.

[Rooster Booster]

gericault roque for the NH novice handicap chase.
he also has an entry for the Kim muir but I think with the drying ground and Jack tudor being able to ride the tuesday race is most likely.
Anyway we'll know the declarations for Tuesday next Sunday.
Hes got some excellent form in valuable and ultra competitive open handicap chases, the kind of races his opponents havent been anywhere near yet.

2nd in the classic chase in 2022 off 133.
2nd in the 2022 ultima off 138
3rd in the 2022 hennessy off 139.

If the race was in the form it has been recently, level weights, I wouldn't fancy him against some of the younger opponents he's going to be up against.
But with it being a handicap I'm struggling to see how some of these are going to give him the weight they have to.

His comeback run after his lengthy lay off was encouraging and showed he more than likely retains the ability he had beforehand.

It's a risk to say hes as good as he was but does he need to be? he's running off 131, 7lbs lower than what he was when getting 2lbs off and finishing 3 lengths behind corach rambler in the 2022 ultima. some form that is.

He’s a weak finisher and should have won more races imo and I don’t think the issues he’s had , the extra distance and the climb will be positives in that regard. Fair enough if you disagree and hope for your sake I’m wrong

[AaronLad]

He’s a weak finisher and should have won more races imo and I don’t think the issues he’s had , the extra distance and the climb will be positives in that regard. Fair enough if you disagree and hope for your sake I’m wrong

That's fair enough.
Do you have any suggestions to oppose him and reasons why for wayward lad to consider?
Or are there any others on Tuesday you think have chances?

[Rooster Booster]

That's fair enough.
Do you have any suggestions to oppose him and reasons why for wayward lad to consider?
Or are there any others on Tuesday you think have chances?

Yeah apologies I thought I was on the National Hunt Chase thread, I’m multi tasking and I am shit at it. My main fancy for this is Captain Cody though his price now is pretty shit. I think he will travel very smoothly through the race and I am hopeful that he has inherited the endurance and doggedness that his sire tends to impart on his offspring. The one I think will outrun his odds is Latenightrumble. He would have won snuggly lto but for a stumble on landing. If he gets in he will have a feather weight and will think he is running loose. His connections know the time of day with this kind of staying chaser and I expect him to be primed on the day.

The only horse I’m backing in the Fred Winter is Beyond Your Dreams but there no way I’d pick this race if I didn’t have to for a forum Yankee.

Now that the ground appears to be drying I’m expecting the Cromwell mare to take up her engagement in the Mares Chase and this for me makes Touch Me Not the value if we wanted an Arkle horse and were going for an EW Yankee. I think Majborough is very good however I think LDS would have struggled to get to TMN if he hadn’t tried to take a fence with him and he is more than double the price. He will love the assumed ground conditions and ironically is usually a very sound jumper (and critically for a 2 mile chaser, skips away from his fences). I can see him going from the front and using his jumping to eliminate most of the field by halfway.

The three I’ve done for the Ultima are the two Linda Russell horses and Henry’s Friend and I like the chances of all three. It has to be doubtful whether Myretown gets in but his run style will suit as will HF, but he lacks that all important course form. I do think he is very well handicapped though. He has been a non runner twice in good ground and once in G-S so that may be a concern. I don’t think there’s a trainer in better form than she is right now. Hopefully she hasn’t peaked too soon.

With regard to the Mares hurdle we are gambling on the destination of the big two obviously. If (and it’s a big IF) both pitch up in the CH I think July Flower is very solid , I think Golden Ace will run a huge race if it’s decent ground and I also think Dysart Enos will outrun her price if a) the ground is decent and b) she settles okay so I’d be happy with any of these three.

[AaronLad]

Good stuff Rooster Booster

I think I agree with you on golden ace and the Mares hurdle but so much depends on destinations of others and her own, but we'll know next Sunday and if she's in and the big 2 aren't she'd get my vote

[Wayward Lad]

Thanks for all the input so far chaps and chapesses

With the concern over the going being Goodish rather than Good to Soft on the first day, then I think we need to use the advantage that other Festival Daily Yankee Captains don’t have and wait for the Sunday decs, particularly around the handicaps.

Downside is that we may miss the prices, but the upside is we should have a Yankee with all four running for us !

[archie]

If Joyeuse is supplemented for the Mares Hurdle, she'd be an ew candidate.

Henry's Friend in the Ultima seems popular and gets my vote as well.

I've made the case for Hot Fuss in the Fred Winter elsewhere as very well in on flat ratings. Hurdles form of being 4l down on East India Dock isn't too shabby either.

If Midnight Our Fred goes in the NH Chase, he has Cheltenham form, albeit on the New course, and his Leopardstown run in December reads well. I worry if he'll see out the trip though and suspect that he may go to the Kim Muir.

[Kevloaf]

Posted this in the Ultima thread but will get lost soon as we have so many threads going:




One of the angles I like, in handicaps in particular, is looking back at the previous festival for horses that were well backed last year, and are much bigger prices coming back to the race the year after - looking at why they're so much bigger now than then - what went wrong, are they being overlooked?

Trelawne went off 5/1 2F in the Ultima and fell, 2 fences out – way too early to comment on how he’d have done but what has he done since to make him 5 times the price now?

He didn’t run again that season, so first run this year he beat Iroko half-a-length, who is classy and one of the Grand National favourites, as well as just finishing up being the G1 winning Grey Dawning

Next time out he was 4^th, giving 9lbs to Victtorino (beaten 9.75L) with The Changing Man 2^nd (0.5L behind) giving him 17lbs – he meets Vicctorino now just 3lbs worse off, so a 6lbs swing and The Changing Man also 5lbs better off with and he’s one of the favourites for the race, albeit TCM is well handicapped still on that specific run

His last run wasn’t as good, at Haydock in soft, but back at Cheltenham (where let’s not forget he’s also finished beaten less than 4L by Ginny’s Destiny and Grey Dawning in 3^rd I’m happy to speculate the track is no issue for him


I think 25/1 NRNB is over priced at the moment – he may well end up bigger or the same price with more places so I’ll going to back now with a view to backing again – but I think he’s really being underestimated here.

He’s hardly been poor this season and was 5/1, he’s now 25/1 – all aboard the Trelawne train

[Prestbury]

I liked him too for similar reasons (he's a pretty good trends fit too) but the firmer ground is very offputting (I wonder whether Bailey will even run him). That and 8lb higher in the handicap help to explain at least a slug of the price difference to last year. If he lines up I will be having at least something on.