Day One Festival Yankee: Captain Wayward Lad

[Wayward Lad]

Ultima - Victtorino, Malina Girl, King Turgeon, Henry's Friend & Myretown are where I would be looking, based on current prices. The Changing Man looks to have an obvious chance, but now short enough in the market.

Boodles - Bit of chat going on about horses well in, Quevega mentioned a couple in the Boodles thread, also Total Look, and despite the rating I'm still really keen on Murcia.

NH Chase - Not done much on this race personally, but Transmission seems well thought of, as does Captain Cody, and Now Is The Hour, although, again, he's gone plenty short enough.

Myretown trainer knows how to win an Ultima methinks

Lots of positive talk on the forum about Total Look today after the weights were announced

Bit of a story with Captain Cody as the owner (Caldwell) is running it in respect of Michael O’Sullivan

[Eudipe]

Kopek Des Bordes & Majborough look hard to oppose. I quite like William Munny & Touch Me Not as EW angles but realistically I think something would have to go wrong for the FAVs to fail.

If willing to gamble on the big two skipping the Mares Hurdle, I'd rate Kaka Conti as a good value EW selection particularly in relation to July Flower with whom she is closely matched on their latest runs.

I'd be willing to take on both Constitution Hill (yes he's been the greatest but he has yet to prove he's capable of hitting those heights after his various documented issues) and Brighterdaysahead (on her likely run style being put under pressure over this C&D) with Lossiemouth who I think (as connections stated) was below par when a reasonably close second to Constitution Hill and she has excelled on both courses at Cheltenham. The obvious caveats are that she could switch (though connections have remained firm in this '2 year' aim) and it has to be taken on trust how she bounces back from her fall last time (which may have had the silver lining of protecting her from a particularly grueling race last month given the strong pace she went).

British tax should ensure Beyond Your Dreams gets in on a nice weight in the Fred Winter and I'd also rate Liam Swagger as a decent EW option there. Beyond Your Dreams looks well treated in relation to Total Look & Wendrock though her hurdling has lacked fluency. Liam Swagger has looked very professional, not ground dependent and fairly treated directly/indirectly with the likes of Static, Torrent, Teriferma and Total Look.

Now Is The Hour looks an obvious plot for the NH Chase and I can't believe (given his clear non-trying imo) how the British h'capper has treated him relative to Captain Cody but I'd still much prefer the latter as a better value EW angle in the race.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Any advantage I can get I’ll have it thankyou

Dependent on which races we go for then I’d suggest some nice each way picks which look to have a good chance to get placed, not muggy each ways, but not long odds high risk

Makes sense to me with the make up in particular of the graded races.
I think going for the handicaps with a view to finding e/w value is the way to go, and personally I would look at the Arkle for my other.Yes a deserved fav but imo there are a few at e/w prices that could win and 2m nov chasers can be vulnerable.
JB, TMN and if she turns up OBN all
look capable of big runs to me.

[RufusFlynn]

Since 2020 and Honeysuckle's first win in the race Henry has had eight runners in the Mares Hurdles with the form figures: 187BD1234.

That includes Telmesomethinggirl's unlucky tumble and the 2-3-4 all from last year.

With at least one of BDA/Lossiemouth going to the CH I think there is probably value (for the places at least) in both of Henry's entries.

Lantry Lady was obviously tried over fences but I wouldn't be put off including either of them in the Day One selections, behind Jade de Grugy there's not massive depth to the race.

[Kevloaf]

Since 2020 and Honeysuckle's first win in the race Henry has had eight runners in the Mares Hurdles with the form figures: 187BD1234.

That includes Telmesomethinggirl's unlucky tumble and the 2-3-4 all from last year.

With at least one of BDA/Lossiemouth going to the CH I think there is probably value (for the places at least) in both of Henry's entries.

Lantry Lady was obviously tried over fences but I wouldn't be put off including either of them in the Day One selections, behind Jade de Grugy there's not massive depth to the race.

July Flower much more obvious one to continue his decent form than Lantry Lady you think?

[RufusFlynn]

You would think so re July Flower; but 5 of the last 8 have been 7 or older. And all of Henry's three from LY were considered outsiders of the field so I genuinely wouldn't discount either from placing - even though Lantry Landy will most likely be a big price if looking a likely runner.

[Wayward Lad]

Still not decided upon which 4 races yet, but I think we can all agree that there maybe better options than an each way shout in the Champ Hurdle

Looking through the various separate threads and submissions on this thread, then shortlists as follows;


Supreme,
Romeo Coolio @ 6/1 - solid each way, form in book, was the 2nd coming before last years Champ Bumper
Salvador Mundi@ 6/1 - been working well apparently since pipe opener, the forgotten horse since KDB last run?

Arkle,
Touch me Not @ 14/1 good form with 1st and 2nd fav, needs the fav to fall to win though

Ultima….5 places,
Henry’s Friend @ 12/1 - Naid spare & Pauling very confident
Whistle Stop Tour @ 14/1 - Scu thinks he is as good as any they have sent before ie Corach!
Broadway Boy @ 10/1 - trainers confident

Mares H…..take a risk that BDA and Lossie go Champ H?
July Flower @ 5/1 - trainer knows how to win this race
Kala Conti @ 12/1 - close form with JF and trainer has won this race before

Fred Winter…..5 places,
Beyond Your Dreams @ 12/1 - well weighted and Joseph plot?
Puturhandstogether @ 12/1 - no Forum noise yet Walsh’s ride ? And more chance to get in that BYD ? Also Joseph plot?
Murcia @ 12/1 - not treated well? and may go Triumph?
Wendrock @ 16/1 - not treated well?
Lady Vega Allen…..could she come here and avoid Hello N?…..Mark Howard thinks so

Nat Hunt Chase….5 places,
Captain Cody @ 7/1 - owner wants this horse to run and win in memory of Michael O Sullivan
Transmission @ 9/1 - fiddling around over hurdles to keep chase mark


Tried to get horses mainly that have had a lot of discussion (apart from Puturhandstogether) and where more than one Forum member appears to support the selection.

Keep the posts coming please

[Eggs]

…I feel I need to get Will Do on board, he could be a sneaky one for Elliott in NHC. 12-1 best price now, so has been found.

[ComplyOrDie]

Would avoid Touch Me Not.

Held by both Majborough & L'eau Du Sud, so technically playing for one place, if you believe the form.

No gurantee L'eau Du Sud is even the best of the British, with Jango Baie unexposed over 2m over fences.

[Wayward Lad]

…I feel I need to get Will Do on board for NHC.

Trainer tip and B365 significantly shorter than the rest @ 7/1 verses 10/1 and 12/1 readily available elsewhere, which isn’t the norm IMO

[Kevloaf]

Kopek Des Bordes should not find 3 better than him in the Supreme
Majborough in the Arkle as well, solid e/w claims
Whichever Mare lands here Lossie or BDA
Champ Hurdle - Con Hill, I think he can regain his crown





I quite like Ben Pauling's .... if Pic Roc was declared for the NH Chase

[Eggs]

Kopek Des Bordes should not find 3 better than him in the Supreme
Majborough in the Arkle as well, solid e/w claims
Whichever Mare lands here Lossie or BDA
Champ Hurdle - Con Hill, I think he can regain his crown





I quite like Ben Pauling's .... if Pic Roc was declared for the NH Chase

….seems particularly sweet on Pic Roc, especially given there seems more ‘noise’ for Henry’s Friend. Pauling has said Pic Roc is going Jack Richards unless the weather is very dry ahead of that race.

[Lobos]

How about Takenochances as an EW alternative in the Mares especially as it looks very likely both Lossie and BDA go CH. Skelton's Mare is very underrated imo.

[Exar Essay]

Would avoid Touch Me Not.

Held by both Majborough & L'eau Du Sud, so technically playing for one place, if you believe the form.

No gurantee L'eau Du Sud is even the best of the British, with Jango Baie unexposed over 2m over fences.

I wouldn't be so certain that Touch Me Not wouldn't beat L'Eau Du Sud if they were to reoppose. TMN made a horrible mistake at Sandown which ruined is rhythm. He didn't jump brilliantly that day. I also feel that TMN Improved at the DRF, but that LDS regressed at the Kingmaker. There's every change LDS improves again and TMN doesn't but I don't think TMN would be playing for just one place; I think there is a chance he could be the second best horse in the race.

[Istabraq]

How about Takenochances as an EW alternative in the Mares especially as it looks very likely both Lossie and BDA go CH. Skelton's Mare is very underrated imo.

Fair bit of blue for Golden Ace today so maybe things looking more positive for her.
I'd be fairly sure both star mares go Champion Hurdle which would leave this race looking a weak renewal, Kargese would get my interest but vibes are she's heading to the County.
One at a wild price is Dysart Enos, Fergal was fairly bullish the other day...