Day 3 Yankee Captain Durham Edition

[RufusFlynn]

I think Moon D’Orange deserves a mention for the novices handicap. I’ve not backed him yet but I intend to with it being the target.

His win in the big handicap in January was a good performance against seasoned handicappers. The winning distance would have been a lot cosier had he not made a mistake at the last but that could be a blessing as he’s only been put up 4lbs for that win. We know the pre-Cheltenham handicaps always have a say on the Cheltenham festival handicaps as well. McConnell does well at the course so surely only a matter of time before he breaks his duck at the festival. He needs a few to come out but I’d be hopeful he makes it in.

Also coming on to mention Moon D'Orange.

The other one was Thecompanysergeant - no major thoughts on him myself but did notice Gavin had mentioned him as his handicap dark horse for this race. Would be guaranteed a run wheres Moon D'Orange is a bit further down the list.

[Killiney]

On the subject of Patrick on Transmission in the Kim Muir. I noticed a snippet in the stats provided by Saxon that he has never won the Kim Muir.

[Craigy14]

On the subject of Patrick on Transmission in the Kim Muir. I noticed a snippet in the stats provided by Saxon that he has never won the Kim Muir.

Probably because WPM has never won a handicap chase or sent something that’s been ‘plotted’ to this race. A stat I’d definitely ignore imo.

Hes one of the best amateurs hands down, him Derek and Codd were/are worth half a stone minimum compared to the others imo.

[Quevega]

Probably because WPM has never won a handicap chase or sent something that’s been ‘plotted’ to this race. A stat I’d definitely ignore imo.

Hes one of the best amateurs hands down, him Derek and Codd were/are worth half a stone minimum compared to the others imo.

Yeah, he's been close a couple of times for sure, and definitely wants to win the race.

I mean, his dads sending a fucking horse over most midweeks these days because he wants to ride a winner at every track or something daft.
Which is a little bit poncey and a piss take if you ask me.

But He's obviously a box ticker.

[Craigy14]

Yeah, he's been close a couple of times for sure, and definitely wants to win the race.

I mean, his dads sending a fucking horse over most midweeks these days because he wants to ride a winner at every track or something daft.
Which is a little bit poncey and a piss take if you ask me.

But He's obviously a box ticker.

Exactly, completely agree!

I think that’s why he’ll be desperate to get Transmission here and also him to ride.

His win at Cheltenham on him was a quality ride to be fair.

[Quevega]

A couple of my bigger hopes run on this day. Horses where I've staked more than others.
And also still appear value at current odds - even taking into account the time of the season where the NRNB markets are generally compressed by around 20% or so.
It's pot luck sometimes how the defections and subsequent declarations affect prices taken now vs the day.
But there is a skill to it in some race markets.

Protektorat @ 7-1 NRNB B365 is still value,

Having been far too big ever since the race at Huntingdon which I felt was very deceptive on his true ability and posted on here about it at the time. I did not expect that his price would shorten so much but he ran so well at Windsor and this put him on the radar of many more punters, but this also helped with the confidence, and the trainer is ultra sweet on him.

But I did fully expect that come Cheltenham week that any price around the 6-1 would be worth a bet on last years winner, unless the race was absolutely red hot.
It does not look like it will be ultra competitive with only one of the JP horses set to run and doubts about either, for differing reasons, and the French horse swaying this way still has to prove he can handle a track like Cheltenham with his forward going style. I'd be very surprised if the winner is not one of those three horses.

Feet of a Dancer @ 14-1 NRNB B365 also a good price.

It seems they have planned for this race from a long time ago, and I was quick to spot the very similar paths that Nolans previous mare took on the way to winning the pertemps, as I backed her after qualifying in the same race years ago. Looks on a decent mark, very similar to Mrs Milner, and especially looking at the Dublin mares handicap she placed in last year, a valuable race she went off at 11/2. I think they really like her and think she has a right chance. Trappy race though I suppose.

Other suggestions for the Thursday although I've only backed the one. Run in the stayers.

The Wallpark 12-1 NRNB B365
Lucky Place 8-1 NRNB B365

For different reasons these two look the most likely to challenge the favourite. The form of Lucky Place, although not flashy, looks solid enough and there is as good a chance he can improve further for the demands of the stayers, on this basis, given the current line up his price looks ok. But I've not backed as of yet.

I have backed the Wallpark months back on the exchange, but have recently also backed at 12-1 as his style of running really ought to suit the stayers, and I think the track clearly suits and the likely pace being average to slow. He just looks like he could have some improvement in him.

In these two's favour also is the sparsity of other potential challengers to the favourite.
I respect Home by the Lee but at 6-1 in his fourth attempt even if he's travelled better this year, I think he's one you could let run at that sort of price.
The 5 yr old Rocky's Diamond clearly could improve but I'd say the betting has him about right, especially given the trainers lack of experience (although I like him a lot)
Langer Dan & Mystical Power are the random one's, but have looked fucking useless this season so far. (I have backed both of these )

All the others are really like fucking trees in the Autumn, some days they look nice enough, when you look up at them and the leaves catch the sun etc, but on other days they are just fucking trees, and you just walk past them.
So they will need everything to drop right to be noticed and become relevant basically.