Day 4 Yankee 2025 Captain Irish Rugby

[AaronLad]

I think Valgrand Is a pretty solid choice for this Yankee.
In the last week the aintree bumper in which he finished 4th has had a couple of good results with the front 2 from that race looking classy in their victories. Well above average.

Also in 3rd was good n clever who hasnt yet won over timber but he's acquitted himself rather well, even going over to the drf and finishing 3rd although well beaten finishing in front of some well thought of types.

Valgrand himself had an excellent start over hurdles winning his first 3 starts.
A victory a cheltenham was followed by 2 defeats there.
He's obvious, he's not huge value, but with his trainers record in the race I think he's an absolute must for this yankee.

[Kevloaf]

The Triumph is easy to avoid this year?
We have 2x British trained, that split opinion.... the best of the Irish in unbeaten but not trained by Willie - so far too many to pick that we won't know who was right until the day

County Hurdle - if you're lazy you can narrow down to trainer ... but at the prices etc, easy to involve in a yankee as we can probably agree on a shortlist not too disimillar to the Triumph in size but bigger prices

Mares Chase - Dinoblue wins and it's not really up for debate? Some each way chances though

Gold Cup - all over bar the shouting

Albert Bartlett - historically one you'd avoid, but previous festival winner Jasmin at the time of selection won't be fav and could go off fav if Willie's in form ...

Hunter Chase - nothing for Patrick, fav is a festival winner in the Kim Muir, against a young up and comer and It's On The Line ... hard to pick one of the three


and we end in the Pipe? ..... Where Kopek would make sense if you went all Willie ... (Dinoblue, Jasmin, Galopin, Kopek) ... although I'm not sure Kopek runs today...



The thought of it landing on Galopin Des Champs appeals too .... history made, twice..... the three-peat and the FJ daily yankee finally lands..... that is your destiny Irish Rugby


Valgrand
Dinoblue
Jasmin De Vaux
Galopin Des Certainty

407/1 with 365 NRNB

I'll take the 4 fold whilst you mull it over

[Irish Rugby]

Thanks Kev. Just waiting on some clarity on the runners in the County and if Lark in the Morning even gets in. Going to go to the wire with this, so won't post until Sunday.

[Kevloaf]

Bump

Should get some clarity on some runners today

[DenmanSacre]

Going against Kopeck de Mee just on price for the Yankee but Lark in the Mornin guaranteed to get in now (just needs one to come out, with Burdett Road apparently going to the Champion Hurdle) off 10st8 (may rise slightly depending on if Daddy Long Legs goes).

He romped home in the Fred Winter, travelling too well and getting to the front far too early. In this race, he can copy what Absurde did last year, ridden cold, come through between the 2nd last and last, and strike for home. Kopeck de Mee could be massively well in, but if for whatever reason he doesn't run his race, I don't particularly see anything else that is as well in as LITM, who has his course form, and the new course will suit even more. Absurde is a danger again if turning up,


In the Martin Pipe, you're looking for the future grade 1/2 class novice chaser. This is a much easier race to win than the County so KDM could come here and win on the bridle.

However, ignoring him, we are looking for a future grade 1/2 novice chaser. Last 4 winners have been Better Days Ahead (2nd in grade 1 at Xmas), Iroko (injury hit novice chase season but ran in grade 1s), Banbridge and Galopin Des Champs (1st and 2nd fav in the Gold Cup).

I'd always be looking at the horses tried in graded class and stepping down in class.

That gives us:

Tounsivator - won the Royal Bond grade 2 but I'd throw that form in the bin. He wouldn't personally be for me as I don't see him progressing to that 155-160 level next season.

Bunting - I don't mind his form at Clonmel against Beckett Rock but should really have won it. Ran well at the DRF last season then annihilated in the 2 grade 1s. I'm not sure he's at the requisite level.

Minella Sixo - if he hadn't had the fall last time, I'd possibly be interested but that was a huge fall. Confidence could be knocked and short enough at 14s when Gordon will have his best conditional on Wodhooh. 2nd to Potters Charm and 3rd to The Big Westerner looks good form but The Big Westerner form has been let down since.

Karafon - I think this has been the plan since the start of the season. Debuted in September 2023 as a 3yo, finishing just under 4 lengths off Kingland and 1.25 lengths off Milan Tino. Kingland won the grade 1 4yo hurdle at Auteuil in November.

Only other appearance last season was a 5.75 length defeat from Kala Conti in the grade 2 at Xmas.

Stepped up to 2m 3.5 furlongs for his maiden, he won comfortably from Uhavemeinstitches (won since) and Karamoja (won on her 2nd next start). He settled well, showed good speed in the finish (113% FS%) and jumped well even with Patrick on top (7.8 jump score and average speed lost of 2.18mph).

He was moved down in distance and up in grade next time in the grade 1 at Leopardstown. Had Daryl Jacob on top, who settled him towards the rear but was never going to have the pace to compete with Romeo Coolio over 2m. Not sure how they get the jump score with all the fog but he got a 8.4 with average speed lost of 2.66mph.

Needed one more run to get in here so they put him in the grade 1 over 2m at the DRF. JJ Slevin on top this time and to make sure he doesn't mess up his mark, he gets involved in disputing the lead. Jumped well again (8.3 jump score, 2.24mph average lost on jumping) and that gets him in here off 135 (just 3 pounds higher than his Irish mark).

Sired by Karaktar (Il Est Francais, Kala Conti, Jagwar his top 3 rated on RPR), the 2m4 will see him in much better light than the 2m he has been running over the last twice. If they wanted to aim him at a grade 1 at Cheltenham, they'd have gone down the Naas grade 1 route IMO but I think this has been the number 1 aim this season.

Available at 14s/16s currently, he's going to be Mullins number 1 if KDM doesn't turn up and will be half those odds by Friday.

I'm hoping KDM goes to the County as Karafon has turned into a decent size bet in this for me.


Of the ones not fitting the above, No Questions Asked is interesting. The Sidney Banks had 3 good horses in it this year that are below grade 1 level but around grade 2/3 level as novices. I'm not sure which conditional would ride him but 33s is a fair price and I'll probably cover each way.


Not got huge opinions on the other races yet- Lulamba will win but is too short, Galopin wins but I think Banbridge will give him a proper race, couldn't care less about the Mares chase, couldn't offer an opinion on the Hunters and the Albert Bartlett I'll be looking at when we have the declarations.

[BookieBasher]

Going against Kopeck de Mee just on price for the Yankee but Lark in the Mornin guaranteed to get in now (just needs one to come out, with Burdett Road apparently going to the Champion Hurdle) off 10st8 (may rise slightly depending on if Daddy Long Legs goes).

He romped home in the Fred Winter, travelling too well and getting to the front far too early. In this race, he can copy what Absurde did last year, ridden cold, come through between the 2nd last and last, and strike for home. Kopeck de Mee could be massively well in, but if for whatever reason he doesn't run his race, I don't particularly see anything else that is as well in as LITM, who has his course form, and the new course will suit even more. Absurde is a danger again if turning up,


In the Martin Pipe, you're looking for the future grade 1/2 class novice chaser. This is a much easier race to win than the County so KDM could come here and win on the bridle.

However, ignoring him, we are looking for a future grade 1/2 novice chaser. Last 4 winners have been Better Days Ahead (2nd in grade 1 at Xmas), Iroko (injury hit novice chase season but ran in grade 1s), Banbridge and Galopin Des Champs (1st and 2nd fav in the Gold Cup).

I'd always be looking at the horses tried in graded class and stepping down in class.

That gives us:

Tounsivator - won the Royal Bond grade 2 but I'd throw that form in the bin. He wouldn't personally be for me as I don't see him progressing to that 155-160 level next season.

Bunting - I don't mind his form at Clonmel against Beckett Rock but should really have won it. Ran well at the DRF last season then annihilated in the 2 grade 1s. I'm not sure he's at the requisite level.

Minella Sixo - if he hadn't had the fall last time, I'd possibly be interested but that was a huge fall. Confidence could be knocked and short enough at 14s when Gordon will have his best conditional on Wodhooh. 2nd to Potters Charm and 3rd to The Big Westerner looks good form but The Big Westerner form has been let down since.

Karafon - I think this has been the plan since the start of the season. Debuted in September 2023 as a 3yo, finishing just under 4 lengths off Kingland and 1.25 lengths off Milan Tino. Kingland won the grade 1 4yo hurdle at Auteuil in November.

Only other appearance last season was a 5.75 length defeat from Kala Conti in the grade 2 at Xmas.

Stepped up to 2m 3.5 furlongs for his maiden, he won comfortably from Uhavemeinstitches (won since) and Karamoja (won on her 2nd next start). He settled well, showed good speed in the finish (113% FS%) and jumped well even with Patrick on top (7.8 jump score and average speed lost of 2.18mph).

He was moved down in distance and up in grade next time in the grade 1 at Leopardstown. Had Daryl Jacob on top, who settled him towards the rear but was never going to have the pace to compete with Romeo Coolio over 2m. Not sure how they get the jump score with all the fog but he got a 8.4 with average speed lost of 2.66mph.

Needed one more run to get in here so they put him in the grade 1 over 2m at the DRF. JJ Slevin on top this time and to make sure he doesn't mess up his mark, he gets involved in disputing the lead. Jumped well again (8.3 jump score, 2.24mph average lost on jumping) and that gets him in here off 135 (just 3 pounds higher than his Irish mark).

Sired by Karaktar (Il Est Francais, Kala Conti, Jagwar his top 3 rated on RPR), the 2m4 will see him in much better light than the 2m he has been running over the last twice. If they wanted to aim him at a grade 1 at Cheltenham, they'd have gone down the Naas grade 1 route IMO but I think this has been the number 1 aim this season.

Available at 14s/16s currently, he's going to be Mullins number 1 if KDM doesn't turn up and will be half those odds by Friday.

I'm hoping KDM goes to the County as Karafon has turned into a decent size bet in this for me.


Of the ones not fitting the above, No Questions Asked is interesting. The Sidney Banks had 3 good horses in it this year that are below grade 1 level but around grade 2/3 level as novices. I'm not sure which conditional would ride him but 33s is a fair price and I'll probably cover each way.


Not got huge opinions on the other races yet- Lulamba will win but is too short, Galopin wins but I think Banbridge will give him a proper race, couldn't care less about the Mares chase, couldn't offer an opinion on the Hunters and the Albert Bartlett I'll be looking at when we have the declarations.

Karafon has been my main MP pick for the last couple of months and I hope he runs there. But Posh Josh last night mentioned that the Coral Cup maybe the race he takes in. He was quite a few beers down mind you. Have since backed Bunting NRNB as he’s really the only Willie alternative if KDM goes County

[DenmanSacre]

Karafon has been my main MP pick for the last couple of months and I hope he runs there. But Posh Josh last night mentioned that the Coral Cup maybe the race he takes in. He was quite a few beers down mind you. Have since backed Bunting NRNB as he’s really the only Willie alternative if KDM goes County

Not sure Josh knows anything about the Mullins horses. I'd have thought Supersundae would have been the Coral Cup horse. If he goes the Coral Cup, I'll just move my stakes over there.

May as well do it now. 50s Betfair.

[BookieBasher]

Not sure Josh knows anything about the Mullins horses. I'd have thought Supersundae would have been the Coral Cup horse. If he goes the Coral Cup, I'll just move my stakes over there.

May as well do it now. 50s Betfair.

I stand corrected. Have just watched back the clip. It was Jake Price who mentioned that JJ Slevin mentioned it to Nick Luck that the Coral could be the new plan.

[Black Dog]

I stand corrected. Have just watched back the clip. It was Jake Price who mentioned that JJ Slevin mentioned it to Nick Luck that the Coral could be the new plan.

If they need a new plan doesn't that imply there's something in the Pipe they think they can't beat?

[Yosser]

If they need a new plan doesn't that imply there's something in the Pipe they think they can't beat?

darlojim might be able to guide you in that direction

[Black Dog]

darlojim might be able to guide you in that direction

...and if they need a new plan does that mean they know KDM's plan is the Pipe...

[Yosser]

...and if they need a new plan does that mean they know KDM's plan is the Pipe...

Same yard. Very feasible. I was only interested in Karafon for the pipe. He didn't really hit the trends as much as others for the Coral Cup but will re-visit on declarations if it is confirmed and re-check.

[AaronLad]

The hunters chase isn't a race many of us spend much time on, it's not a race I'd be looking at too much anyway.

A couple of year ago I was quite keen on an elliott horse for the pipe, Music Drive.
He was owned by Dave Barnard along with minella crooner, and he put both up for sale mid season with music drive having looked laid out for the pipe.
He went missing, never to be seen again, so I thought, until he pops up in the betting for the hunters chase.

So he was eventually sold for £4,000 in the spring hit sale of 2023, to midland equine.
He's run in and won 2 p2ps for Kelly Morgan with the latest coming at Brocklesby.

This is taken from the midlands pointing website.

Record crowds flocked to Brocklesby Park on Saturday to witness the annual point- to- point races run on ground officially described as “good, good to soft in places”. From 92 entries 46 runners contested the 7-race card with highlights including a scintillating performance from Music Drive in the feature race, a double for jockey James King and an impressive debut from maiden winner Mooserwirt.

Music Drive lined up in the feature Baillie Haylage Mixed open race where, in the fastest time of the day; 6 minutes 13 the 8-year-old saw off his nearest pursuer the Bradley Gibbs trained Jet of Magic by 10 lengths. Music Drive and rider Ellie Callwood, let Jet of Magic take command of proceedings early in the race before setting sail for home and to win decisively by a comfortable margin. “He will go straight to Cheltenham for the St James Palace Festival Champion Hunters Chase confirmed winning trainer Kelly Morgan in the winner’s enclosure. Kelly is training a dozen pointers this season from her base in Leicestershire.


Going on this report he would appear to be over the problems that have kept him off the racecourse proper since December 2022.
He hasn't gone unnoticed in the market but is still available at 12/1
He finished 8th of 20 in the champion bumper of 2022 and also finished 2nd in the Hyde novices hurdle.
He's still only 8yo and has pretty low mileage, having only competed 8 times under rules.

[Mighty]

I like Music Drive a lot and backed him at 25s, and while he’s new to hunter chasing this year, the Irish challenge looks very thin. It’s on the line is not the horse he once was, and others are injured or not coming.

The other English runner worth looking at is Allmankind. Has done well in this sphere and still value at 12/1. The good ground will definitely help him.

[Eggs]

…if James King is onboard Music Drive AaronLad, I take it as a positive, he did me a big favour getting Dineur home in the Aintree Foxhunters some years ago.