Day 4 Yankee 2025 Captain Irish Rugby

[Prestbury]

Really hard to be dogmatic about Banbridge staying / not staying. His King George run was his best both on form and on the clock and he is completely unexposed over staying trips. He might not stay but he also might improve for it - after all most people agree that he showed improved form when stepped up to 3m in the KG. That form is only about 7lb below GDC on decent ground - that's not an insurmountable barrier. His sire's best progeny are generally best at shy of 3m but he can get stayers whilst his damsire gets plenty of stayers (and Gold Cup winners!). He will have his ground (otherwise he won't run) and has winning form at the Festival around the New Course. The only issue is the lack of any other credible opposition means his current price is not overly appealing given the stamina question that he has to answer. He is though a very dangerous opponent to GDC.

[Quevega]

That’s fine, I’m ok being proved wrong if that’s the case, still not convinced,
Im still of the opinion though that he’s not a horse that’s capable of staying well enough to beat GDC in a gold cup.
But maybe I will be proved wrong again!! (apparently)

You're obviously not ok with being proven wrong.
Your first sentence is proof of that.

I do not dispute the opinion that he may not stay the Gold cup trip well and definitely don't dispute the opinion that he may not stay it as well as the 2 x champion.
That's yet to be seen.
The odds are certainly in favour of your opinion on that matter for sure - I certainly do not disagree on that, but would wage money on being wrong if the price was right.

But if your opinion is formed because he beat a tiring/slowing horse in the King George.
This is false.
You'd have to be "purposely ignorant" to read that article and still have the same opinion.

Or do you believe it's fake news and prefer alternative facts ?

[Prestbury]

"but would wage money on being wrong if the price was right"

that should be pinned up for everyone to see when they come on to the site

[Carnage at Taunton]

You're obviously not ok with being proven wrong.
Your first sentence is proof of that.

I do not dispute the opinion that he may not stay the Gold cup trip well and definitely don't dispute the opinion that he may not stay it as well as the 2 x champion.
That's yet to be seen.
The odds are certainly in favour of your opinion on that matter for sure - I certainly do not disagree on that, but would wage money on being wrong if the price was right.

But if your opinion is formed because he beat a tiring/slowing horse in the King George.
This is false.
You'd have to be "purposely ignorant" to read that article and still have the same opinion.

Or do you believe it's fake news and prefer alternative facts ?

I’m absolutely fine with being proven wrong, just not convinced that i am, after reading that and watching the KG.
My opinion that Banbridge is a non stayer in the Gold Cup still stands.
I hope he gets his nice ground and gets the chance to prove me wrong.
I shall be the first to come on here eating humble pie if that happens.
Actually he would not be the first horse I thought a non stayer to win the race….. Sizing John proved me wrong a few years ago. He kept getting beat by Douvan over 2m !!
Anyway at least he’s an intriguing runner and to be fair the race needs him this year!!

[Quevega]

"but would wage money on being wrong if the price was right"

that should be pinned up for everyone to see when they come on to the site

I've never understood why people don't get this aspect of betting. Especially those that participate. It's fundamental. IMO.

The vast majority of bets I make is on horse's I don't expect will win. I just like the odds I'm getting for my money (in case I'm wrong)
All I need to try and be right on as much as possible is the PRICE I take.

It's then about control.
What you can (yourself) - and can't control (the outcome)

[Quevega]

I’m absolutely fine with being proven wrong, just not convinced that i am, after reading that and watching the KG.
My opinion that Banbridge is a non stayer in the Gold Cup still stands.
I hope he gets his nice ground and gets the chance to prove me wrong.
I shall be the first to come on here eating humble pie if that happens.
Actually he would not be the first horse I thought a non stayer to win the race….. Sizing John proved me wrong a few years ago. He kept getting beat by Douvan over 2m !!
Anyway at least he’s an intriguing runner and to be fair the race needs him this year!!

Ok - so it's not an issue to you being proven wrong.
Is it just Maths then ?
What part of IEF finishing speed being 103% of his average speed doesn't prove he wasn't slowing down. And therefore relative to that and the rest of the field marks up the finishing effort of Banbridge ?

There will not be many people that will not share your opinion on the Gold cup, so no need to keep repeating the thought process with that - The favourite is 2-5 on FFS.
You're not going to get many with strong opinions against that.

But as discussed above, it's about the prices of the forecast/likely outcomes.

Some will hopefully have the 33-1 or 40-1 boosted, cos I took the prices as he passed the line in the King George and posted 5 mins after the race that the price was very much value at the time.
It looked an obviously decent performance simply how he chased the runaway leader and put lengths between himself and the rest up the home straight.
The time details just backed that up on this occasion, because sometimes the eye deceives in that respect.

That bet has been fortunate in that many of the other contenders have fallen away, and that's the luck you get sometimes backing antepost.

Do I think he will beat GDC - Do I fuck.
Have I had similar thoughts on hundreds of races over the years and been wrong - Absolutely.

So I'm happy to be on the other side of the argument - at the prices, and would definitely consider a further bet at around the 8-1 mark - now the race has cut up so much.

[Quevega]

Just admit you're wrong and we can move on
I'm probably doing peoples heads in.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Ok - so it's not an issue to you being proven wrong.
Is it just Maths then ?
What part of IEF finishing speed being 103% of his average speed doesn't prove he wasn't slowing down. And therefore relative to that and the rest of the field marks up the finishing effort of Banbridge ?

There will not be many people that will not share your opinion on the Gold cup, so no need to keep repeating the thought process with that - The favourite is 2-5 on FFS.
You're not going to get many with strong opinions against that.

But as discussed above, it's about the prices of the forecast/likely outcomes.

Some will hopefully have the 33-1 or 40-1 boosted, cos I took the prices as he passed the line in the King George and posted 5 mins after the race that the price was very much value at the time.
It looked an obviously decent performance simply how he chased the runaway leader and put lengths between himself and the rest up the home straight.
The time details just backed that up on this occasion, because sometimes the eye deceives in that respect.

That bet has been fortunate in that many of the other contenders have fallen away, and that's the luck you get sometimes backing antepost.

Do I think he will beat GDC - Do I fuck.
Have I had similar thoughts on hundreds of races over the years and been wrong - Absolutely.

So I'm happy to be on the other side of the argument - at the prices, and would definitely consider a further bet at around the 8-1 mark - now the race has cut up so much.

Blimey, if I had an issue being proven wrong in this game, time to give up!!!
No, maybe I should have said THIS gold cup rather than the gold cup, because we do have an outstanding champion that has everything needed.
Take GDC out of it, he’s a KG winner and looking at the opposition, the likeliest one on current form.

Congrats on prices by the way, wish I had seen that at the time.

[Carnage at Taunton]

So I guess I am kind of admitting I am kind of wrong
But look forward to talking after the race

off to sleep now, you doing my head in

[Rooster Booster]

The whole principle of value losers is a fascinating one. I used to think my job was to find value (however that is defined). I used to feel good about myself for doing so. My view on this has changed quite markedly over the past few years . The reasons why are involved and complicated . I think it would be a great debate to have at some point (though very definitely not now)

[Quevega]

So I guess I am kind of admitting I am kind of wrong
But look forward to talking after the race

off to sleep now, you doing my head in

I'll settle for kind of wrong.
Off to bed myself, I've done my own head in.

[Quevega]

The whole principle of value losers is a fascinating one. I used to think my job was to find value (however that is defined). I used to feel good about myself for doing so. My view on this has changed quite markedly over the past few years . The reasons why are involved and complicated . I think it would be a great debate to have at some point (though very definitely not now)

You got the principle wrong.
The principle is trying to find value winners.
The hard part, is how often you can do this vs the losers in between.

But one fact will never change.
If you simply focus on backing the horse you think/expect will win a race, no matter the price. You will lose in the long term.

[Rooster Booster]

You got the principle wrong.
The principle is trying to find value winners.
The hard part, is how often you can do this vs the losers in between.

But one fact will never change.
If you simply focus on backing the horse you think/expect will win a race, no matter the price. You will lose in the long term.

Unless you only back one horse per race the principle of value losers and value winners is the same principle. As I know you often back multiple horses per race you are seeking value whether you chose to call it value winners or value losers matters not to me. If you back only one horse per race and insist on it being value then of course it’s a value winner principle, if you back two the best you can do is pick an equal number of each, if you pick three or more then absolute best case you are simply seeking value , the majority of which are guaranteed to be losers

[Quevega]

Unless you only back one horse per race the principle of value losers and value winners is the same principle. As I know you often back multiple horses per race you are seeking value whether you chose to call it value winners or value losers matters not to me. If you back only one horse per race and insist on it being value then of course it’s a value winner principle, if you back two the best you can do is pick an equal number of each, if you pick three or more then absolute best case you are simply seeking value , the majority of which are guaranteed to be losers

Yep, agreed.

The one horse per race merchants just need to ensure they take the right/value price more often than not. So the skill is identifying when and when not to bet, at the prices.

The multiple horses per race merchants follow the exact same principle, they are simply just spreading the stakes and hedging. They probably don't like losing so much and accept that the wins will not be so exciting, but more frequent on average.

Volatility.

[Rooster Booster]

Yep, agreed.

The one horse per race merchants just need to ensure they take the right/value price more often than not. So the skill is identifying when and when not to bet, at the prices.

The multiple horses per race merchants follow the exact same principle, they are simply just spreading the stakes and hedging. They probably don't like losing so much and accept that the wins will not be so exciting, but more frequent on average.

Volatility.

Yep it all comes down to risk appetite and levels of adrenaline addiction