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Thanks for the opportunity, Kev.
I'll be back later today with some early thoughts myself.
Let the discussion commence.
I'll be back later today with some early thoughts myself.
Let the discussion commence.
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…good luck, fella.
just a thought, BFSB usually do ‘bet multiple get a free multiple’ for each day of the festival meaning you can be covered for a few of these. Worth keeping an eye out for such offers. -
Just to start the conversation.
Triumph. I’m in the Hello Neighbour camp. Unbeaten on both his flat starts last autumn for Gavin Cromwell, he put him in a G2 over Christmas and he won the premier Irish trial for this race, the Juvenile at the DRF, and he won that reasonably comfortably. If he was trained by Willie’ he’d be vying for joint favouritism.
Albert Bartlett. I’ve landed on both The Big Westerner and Jasmin de Vaux. Can’t split them. The latter has the all-important Festival form, being last year’s bumper winner. The former is probably Henry’s best chance throughout the four days and will crucially be getting the allowances as a mare. Unbeaten still and winners coming out of her races.
County. Lark in the Mornin is another with previous meeting form, being last year’s Boodle’s winner. An eye catching run at Christmas, it feels JOB’s has had this race in mind since the horse brought home the bacon, last March.
2 weeks out, these are my early thoughts. Not interested in worrying too much about who is going to chase home GDC.
The Martin Pipe has too many horse doubly entered, or even more, so happy to see who is still around at 5 day decs. Henry’s Taponthego has only this handicap target. Has the look of one that could be popular during the previews.
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Evening Irish Rugby , I wish You the best of Luck with Friday's Yankee , These are my early Thought's .....
I like Hallo Neighbour too , although i must admit , East India Dock has the C & D form .
Not sure if it's confirmed , but i like the sound of Kargese in the County Hurdle. in at 22 . Can be too keen in her races though.
In the Bartlett , i like Jet Blue . , again , got the C & D Form . and still available at double figure odds.
I also landed on Taponthego , like you for the Martin Pipe . Henry de Bromhead went close with Waterford Whispers last year ,.
and Taponthe go sneaks in at 24.
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I'll second Hello Neighbour, The Big Westerner and Taponthego (EW). The first two have any amount of potential, the Bartlett in particular looks like it could be relatively weak and while Taponthego got plenty of tax today he has looked a genuine plot for the M.Pipe.
Despite having already backed her for the Mares Hurdle and Ethical Diamond for the County, I think Kargese looks a standout in the County after today's weights were announced.
Also like Only By Night for the Mares Chase but obvious concerns that she could go for the Arkle.
Would only be interested in Inothewayurthinkin as an EW angle with a squeak to win a truly run Gold Cup (if he is supplemented). Otherwise GDC could be a banker selection.
Quite like Rocky's Howya as an EW angle in the Hunters, taking a view that the 2023 Hunters might have been stronger than last year's and his recent p2p form (after an absence) reads well.
Last edited by Eudipe; 25 February 2025, 09:20 PM.Comment
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The Martin Pipe for the last 4 years has been won by horses good enough to run in grade 1 novice chases the next season. How many horses in that field look good enough to be at that level? Apart from JPs two, I don't see another one from the ones likely to turn up. You'd just be guessing which one comes to this race and which one to the County.
Who do people think Townend will be on in the County? This race comes down to Skelton (Valgrand), Mullins (Townend's pick), JP or a previous festival winner (Lark in the Mornin).
If LITM was guaranteed to get in (I think he'll sneak in), a mark of 132 underestimates him, especially if we get decent ground. He got to the front too early in the Boodles last year, coming round the bend to take the lead and powering on to win. In a better field, JJ can get him settled at the back and it will be a similar ride to what Paul gave Absurde.
The handicaps depend on where KDM goes thoughComment
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I’d try and swerve the Triumph.
I quite like HN too but the two brits look very good and possibly are the real deal,so unless current odds appeal for e/w imo leave the race.Comment
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Jet Blue in the Bartlett for me - think his current price at 12/1 in decent value, esp. given Final Demand & The Yellow Clay likely non-runners too.
Previous C&D winner, powered on strongly up the hill and was off the bridle in doing so (like the battling quality being tested), finding plenty. Is an out and out stayer who will be staying on up the hill, never been out of the first 3 in 5 runs. He ticks a lot of the boxes…
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Not that i have a strong fancy for the race - but apart from Monkfish's year - all winners in the past 8 have been high double figure prices. there's only been a handful of single figure priced placed horses over those same years too. Difficult to pick a big price horse with a strong argument - but Intense Approach is a big price but has followed the same pattern as other placed horses from the same trainer.Comment
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I want some mad priced absolute yoke for the potato race plsComment
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I'll keep this short cos I got bored writing the one for thursdays races.
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I'm getting more and more sweet on Banbridge for the Gold cup, but his price now looks tight, but if JP supplements Iknowthewayurthinkin before the selections are picked, and we have a better idea on the weather then I'd say he's worthy of inclusion consideration myself.
He just looks like the type of horse that has won the race before after having been running over shorter trips most of his life. It's a fact that his win the King George was a strong staying performance and not him running on past a tiring horse.
It's hard to visualise him not being able to go the gallop at any stage and he jumps lovely most days.
He might just be able to make a race of it against the big man, especially if they don't go a good gallop, and this might happen if the field is smallish and Townend gets complacent or plays it a little safe on Galopin.
Anything nearer the 8-1 on him with the other JP horse supplemented is fair enough, although could easily be bigger on the day if we get an hour of rain
and the inevitable money for the Fav.
But could also be shorter if the French horse has romped home in the Ryanair. Swings and roundabouts.
He is definitely the only Dark horse right now, and we just need another adding to the mix for his price to be worthy.
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I also think Joseph has a good priced horse in the Triumph.
Galileo Dame quite simply does not deserve to be 4 times the price of the leading Irish horse. 16-1 ew is a steal.
This will be even more so if the other Mullins horses that are near top weight in the Fred Winter stand their ground in that race and don't come here instead.
Last edited by Quevega; 28 February 2025, 03:04 PM.Comment
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Re the king George….Originally posted by Quevega View PostI'll keep this short cos I got bored writing the one for thursdays races.
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I'm getting more and more sweet on Banbridge for the Gold cup, but his price now looks tight, but if JP supplements Iknowthewayurthinkin before the selections are picked, and we have a better idea on the weather then I'd say he's worthy of inclusion consideration myself.
He just looks like the type of horse that has won the race before after having been running over shorter trips most of his life. It's a fact that his win the King George was a strong staying performance and not him running on past a tiring horse.
It's hard to visualise him not being able to go the gallop at any stage and he jumps lovely most days.
He might just be able to make a race of it against the big man, especially if they don't go a good gallop, and this might happen if the field is smallish and Townend gets complacent or plays it a little safe on Galopin.
Anything nearer the 8-1 on him with the other JP horse supplemented is fair enough, although could easily be bigger on the day if we get an hour of rain and the inevitable money for the Fav.
But could also be shorter if the French horse has romped home in the Ryanair. Swings and roundabouts.
He is definitely the only Dark horse right now, and we just need another adding to the mix for his price to be worthy.
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I also think Joseph has a good priced horse in the Triumph.
Galileo Dame quite simply does not deserve to be 4 times the price of the leading Irish horse. 16-1 ew is a steal.
This will be even more so if the other Mullins horses that are near top weight in the Fred Winter stand their ground in that race and don't come here instead.
imo he passed a tired horse
Dont think he’s got an earthly of beating GDC
Completely non stayer in a gd cup imoComment
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Your opinion is wrong regards the King George, the clock proves that.Originally posted by Carnage at Taunton View Post
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IEF had a finishing speed over 100% (103% according to ATR) so he wasn't really tiring/slowing. This is the ATR race comments:Originally posted by Carnage at Taunton View Post
Banbridge’s time from 3 out (2.5f from home) of 35.6s on objectively borderline good/good to soft going was easily the fastest in this race since the track was reconfigured in 2006 and reflects really well on him given that the runner-up was scarcely stopping. The winner’s final 4f of 55.09s translates to a finishing speed of 107.4% of his average race speed.
On IEF, the last comment was:
He stuck to his task, as the sectionals show, but was being overhauled by Banbridge when making a mistake at the last, quickly passed and one paced. This looks to be about his limit in terms of trip.
Not sure you can discount Banbridge as a non stayer when he's not raced over the distance. He's a Martin Pipe winner, which usually produces stayers, and his only time at 3m or more has been the King George then Aintree after his Pipe win when he obviously didn't run his race.Comment
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That’s fine, I’m ok being proved wrong if that’s the case, still not convinced,Originally posted by Quevega View Post
Your opinion is wrong regards the King George, the clock proves that.
Im still of the opinion though that he’s not a horse that’s capable of staying well enough to beat GDC in a gold cup.
But maybe I will be proved wrong again!! (apparently)Comment
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