The NATIONAL HUNT CHALLENGE CUP Novices Handicap Chase

[Lobos]

The NHC isn't an amateur race anymore, Patrick is stones off a professional imo.

I'd put that as a negative for Transmission.

Very aware it's not just for amateurs now. The two just got on so well together and he was brilliant on him. Suit each others styles. And no, he's definitely not stones off a professional. His record proves that. Neil's not an idiot he could have had one of the available top jocks on his back if he felt that it would have been advantageous.

[Rooster Booster]

Very aware it's not just for amateurs now. The two just got on so well together and he was brilliant on him. Suit each others styles. And no, he's definitely not stones off a professional. His record proves that. Neil's not an idiot he could have had one of the available top jocks on his back if he felt that it would have been advantageous.

You talk about his record….what is his Cheltenham Festival wins to runs ratio over obstacles when riding against professionals?

[darlojim]

Rum is the devils work.

[Lobos]

You talk about his record….what is his Cheltenham Festival wins to runs ratio over obstacles when riding against professionals?

Cant help you there Rooster. I'm sure someone else can help. All I know is he gets on very well with the horse and clearly knows how to win the NHC with 4 wins. It's a quite unique race so his experience in it will be invaluable. Bowen might win his case but they'll stick with Patrick which says a lot. He has a hell of a chance imo.

[Rooster Booster]

Cant help you there Rooster. I'm sure someone else can help. All I know is he gets on very well with the horse and clearly knows how to win the NHC with 4 wins. It's a quite unique race so his experience in it will be invaluable. Bowen might win his case but they'll stick with Patrick which says a lot. He has a hell of a chance imo.

It was rhetorical …

[Lobos]

It was rhetorical …

Snap.

[Craigy14]

I think a lot of people are forgetting the conditions of the race, ie pros can ride as well. Can’t be coincidence the gamble has come since Neil said Patrick would ride. Surely people are seeing Patrick not riding for his dad and jumping on, when in fact, PT likely to be on Captain Cody.

[Kevloaf]

I think a lot of people are forgetting the conditions of the race, ie pros can ride as well. Can’t be coincidence the gamble has come since Neil said Patrick would ride. Surely people are seeing Patrick not riding for his dad and jumping on, when in fact, PT likely to be on Captain Cody.

Honestly, I saw that news story, went straight to oddschecker, couldn't believe my luck that he wasn't a sea of blue and already fav .... then questioned myself as to what I'm missing, and then remembered that Paul will be on the first string


Was probably no more than 30 seconds in total but still .... embarassing

[Craigy14]

Honestly, I saw that news story, went straight to oddschecker, couldn't believe my luck that he wasn't a sea of blue and already fav .... then questioned myself as to what I'm missing, and then remembered that Paul will be on the first string


Was probably no more than 30 seconds in total but still .... embarassing

I like the horse and he’s ran well this season but prior to the news he wasn’t a great price imo, so for people to then back him on the back on Patrick being confirmed riding is bizarre imo. I’d much rather back Now Is The Hour with Keith Donoghue or Sean Flanagan onboard than Transmission with Patrick at the prices.

[luisgarciaisgod]

Will Townend be on Captain Cody though? He didn't ride in any handicap chases at the festival last year

[Kevloaf]

Will Townend be on Captain Cody though? He didn't ride in any handicap chases at the festival last year

Yeah true, probably similar this year

Did we ever find out why

I assume it's to reduce risk of injury with having GDC and a third gold cup this year, and it was the same last year but not seen, read or heard it

[Craigy14]

Will Townend be on Captain Cody though? He didn't ride in any handicap chases at the festival last year

True, although don’t recall many if any being fancied from WPM’s for the chases. May change with more handicaps now though. He doesn’t have a ride in the Arkle either this year, no Turners, so I’d say there’s more chance this year he will ride some than any before.

[DenmanSacre]

My starting point with all festival handicap chases (the Plate less so as it's more prominent runners and Cheltenham form) is horses that have ran well in grade 2/3 novice hurdles and/or ran in a grade 1 novice hurdle.

Last year it got 3/4 (not Unexpected Party), year before it got 3/4 (not Corach Rambler)but 2022 it disappointed with only Global Citizen being a qualifying winner (Corach Rambler, Coole Cody and Chambard (won a grade 1 bumper though) the other handicap winners).

The main reason I look at this is that festival races tend to be well run and class comes to the fore. If a horse has been able to run well in grade novice hurdles or thought well enough to be pitched into grade 1 novice hurdle company, then they have the ability to go with the handicap chase pace and you can then sort the remaining by their jumping, likely running position, Cheltenham form etc.

For this race, you're left with:

*Duffle Coat - juvenile grade 2 winner at Cheltenham but I wouldn't say the juvenile graded races (bar the grade 1s) are as competitive as most graded novice hurdles. Left him on here but I wouldn't include him on the shortlist.

Resplendent Grey - 2nd in a Persian War to Captain Teague. Maybe consistently the worst graded novice hurdle of the year though. 14/1

Now is the Hour - grade 2 winner at Haydock. 4/1

Captain Cody - grade 2 winner at Fairyhouse. 7/1

Kyntara - fell when likely going to finish 3rd or 4th in the Aintree grade 1 3m novice hurdle. 25/1

Rock My Way - won grade 2 novice hurdle at Cheltenham. 66/1

Resplendent Grey

Races in the rear, which I'm not a fan of on the old course. 2nd in a grade 2 novice chase. RaceIQ jump scores of 7.6, 7.2, 6.9 then no score at Cheltenham last time (gained 0.55L in jumping so presumably an ok score). Carrying 11:11 so not well handicapped compared to the leading Irish horses.

Kyntara

2nd in the Pertemps last year and running an ok race when falling at the last in 3rd in the Aintree grade 1 novice hurdle last season. Running off a low weight of 10:8 but his jumping needs major improvement. 4.7 jump score at Newbury (lost 17 lengths in jumping and 4.89mph on average at each jump) and at Windsor lost over 8 lengths in jumping and 4.83mph at each fence. Nice price but over 3m6 how many lengths is his jumping going to cost him. If he gets it together, I'd say he's got a great chance of getting at least a place here.

Rock My Way

A poor jumper - 4.4, 5.8, 4.6 and 5.4 this year. Cheltenham winner as a novice hurdle by Cheltenham form since is bad. Moved to he Tizzarda now. Off an ok weight but needs to jump much much better. If he was 100+ on the exchanges on the day, I'd put a couple of quid on him just in case he got his jumping together.

Now Is The Hour

Wide distance Haydock grade 2 winner over 3m. Step up in trip will see him improve as well. Jumps well - 7.5 jump score last time and gaining 15+ lengths with his jumping. Keith won't be holding him back this time. Smashed Haiti Couleurs at Haydock and that form isn't being turned around here IMO. I think he'll continue to drift though and better prices will be available than the current 4/1.

Captain Cody

Won the Fairyhouse grade 2 that consistently produces good staying chasers. 6th in the Cheltenham bumper as well.

Jumping is only ok - 6.9, 7.2, 6.5 - so will need to jump at his best round here. I like the form of the Xmas run and then qualified with the 3rd behind Three Card Brag last time. Might be Willies only runner here and although his record in handicap chases at the festival is abysmal, he has targeted this race with horses like Captain Cody in the past and his class should mean he's better than a 140 horse.


Hard to be confident in these staying handicap chases but the 2 Irish horses look a class above. Will look at the place market for the 3 British horses above on the day and if they drift out, small win bet on the exchange.

[Lobos]

I like the horse and he’s ran well this season but prior to the news he wasn’t a great price imo, so for people to then back him on the back on Patrick being confirmed riding is bizarre imo. I’d much rather back Now Is The Hour with Keith Donoghue or Sean Flanagan onboard than Transmission with Patrick at the prices.

You've only got to watch the ride he gave him in November to understand why punters got stuck into him further after the news. He's the perfect jockey for him. He's a very lazy sort who needs a jockey who's prepared to keep working on him the entire way and 3m 6f is a long way . Patrick knows how to ride/win the NHC blind folded so it can only be a huge positive. Willie has also expressed his sadness that the race has lost its all Amateur status and I have no doubt he'd want his son on one of his in the race but Transmission gives him a much better chance of winning.

[Prestbury]

I like Kyntara too - he was 2nd in the Pertemps last year and his run in the Sefton was very commendable for a horse now rated only 125 over fences less than a year later. His jumping was poor at Windsor but they always seemed to be going a stride too quick for him around that tight circuit - its possible that the slightly slower pace here will help his jumping. However, the quicker ground does temper enthusiasm a little as most (not all) of his form is on softer ground and the faster pace on better ground will put pressure on his jumping. He is 25/1 though and there are a lot worse bets at that price (and shorter) around.