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I think trainers will feel there’s a few in here that are graded horses in a handicap, but at 150 how much has he up his sleeve? He’ll be carrying potentially 10lbs more than some others that could be Graded horses.
Edit - I should add, it’s not as if he’s been hiding either imo.
That’s the view I’d have.
And his one piece of form is likely dubious as they all finished in a line.
But it wouldn’t surprise me if he won or ran well.
Just won’t be backing him.
I’d also add that I never back horses rated over 150 in the plate. As they’ve never won.
So I’ll certainly be continuing that in the novice version. As it’s even more likely there’s others lurking lower down. IMO
We’ll see how that goes.
Shanbally kid is currently 28th on the list and only needs 6 above him to come out. Which looking at those above him isn't impossible, with a host of horses still having other options.
He's an absolute plot job.
Willie Sticking his middle finger up at them for making it a handicap.
He would of course be an extremely popular winner with michael o'sullivan having ridden him on 4 of his last 5 runs, as he did when the horse was an excellent 3rd in last years coral cup.
He hasn't looked the greatest chaser, but he has been running at a trip which is too short for him and they've probably gone a bit quick.
Over further I think his jumping will improve, having had the experience of jumping at a quicker pace. Slowing down just fractionally could make the difference. He clearly has ability.
He went off 12/1 for the Coral cup, after an uninspiring campaign. He's currently 33/1 nrnb, there is absolutely no way, if he gets in that he goes off that price.
Shanbally kid is currently 28th on the list and only needs 6 above him to come out. Which looking at those above him isn't impossible, with a host of horses still having other options.
He's an absolute plot job.
Willie Sticking his middle finger up at them for making it a handicap.
He would of course be an extremely popular winner with michael o'sullivan having ridden him on 4 of his last 5 runs, as he did when the horse was an excellent 3rd in last years coral cup.
He hasn't looked the greatest chaser, but he has been running at a trip which is too short for him and they've probably gone a bit quick.
Over further I think his jumping will improve, having had the experience of jumping at a quicker pace. Slowing down just fractionally could make the difference. He clearly has ability.
He went off 12/1 for the Coral cup, after an uninspiring campaign. He's currently 33/1 nrnb, there is absolutely no way, if he gets in that he goes off that price.
He is very much on my radar too. Do you think he will get in?
As stated in the NH chase thread, my criteria for most Cheltenham handicaps are novices or 2nd season chasers who either ran in a grade 1 novice hurdle or ran well in grade 2/3 novice hurdles as a way of reducing the shortlist. I'd then look at how they've ran at Cheltenham or undulating tracks, record in big fields, likely racing position and pace in the race. I'd also ignore any rated 150+.
This leaves:
Caldwell Potter - should have been in the GA
Dee Capo - good maiden win and ran well trying to put it up to Ballyburns. 146 means he isn't well handicapped though, but he'd be interesting with a claimer and if they raced prominently with him (more held up in his win).
Asian Master - not a fan but ok run in the Supreme last year
Masaccio -great jumper for a novice. If they came here, he'd have a great chance but maybe more likely for the Ultima where I don't think he'll have the stamina. 144 underrates him.
Insurrection - 25/1 is a fair e/w price. Win last time was good - they went quick early on and that's where you'll see the best of him. Lost to Springwell Bay on debut by 1.25 lengths in a race that turned into a bit of a sprint. Next 2 runs were disappointing but on undulating tracks he's 12312. He is by Getaway though.
Nurburgring - 143 but gets a 2 pound reduction for weight for age. He's thrown in. Top class juvenile form for this race standard and bolted up in the Galway hurdle. Seen 3 times over fences, finishing 3rd to Down Memory Lane, 3rd to Touch Me Not and then nowhere over Xmas when they ran him out the back. This will have been the target all season. His jumping IQ stats were good on his first 2 runs and I'd not be concerned with how he copes with this race.
What's Up Darling - I've thought he was more a 2 miler, hasn't jumped that consistently and wouldn't be for me.
Moon D'Orange - 3rd in a 3m graded novice at Cheltenham. Step forward over fences and a good win last time here. I'm just not convinced by him - probably because of how poor he travelled early on last time but finished incredibly well to win.
Shanbally Kid - ran in a grade 1 novice hurdle but his jumping is awful.
Nurburgring a confident selection at this stage, may put a saver on Masaccio. Look at Insurrection and Dee Capo on the day.
Hard to know what Asian Masters mark really is until the jockey situation is cleared up. So probably find out 5 minutes before the off
Seems incredibly short though, unless someone else is riding I suppose...
I don't think he will run, it's a race I have tried to get finished this week on that basis. He might well do but for now he is holding up the market. I will move on shanbally kid this morning after Aaron highlighted he will probably get in. I hadn't even looked. I assumed he was way down. Nurburgring is another I have probably waited too long on already but will gone in today and I am already on Jordans NRMB
Shanbally kid is currently 28th on the list and only needs 6 above him to come out. Which looking at those above him isn't impossible, with a host of horses still having other options.
He's an absolute plot job.
Willie Sticking his middle finger up at them for making it a handicap.
He would of course be an extremely popular winner with michael o'sullivan having ridden him on 4 of his last 5 runs, as he did when the horse was an excellent 3rd in last years coral cup.
He hasn't looked the greatest chaser, but he has been running at a trip which is too short for him and they've probably gone a bit quick.
Over further I think his jumping will improve, having had the experience of jumping at a quicker pace. Slowing down just fractionally could make the difference. He clearly has ability.
He went off 12/1 for the Coral cup, after an uninspiring campaign. He's currently 33/1 nrnb, there is absolutely no way, if he gets in that he goes off that price.
His jumping doesn’t just need to improve it needs to transform. I think the impression you have given somewhat understates the level of improvement needed in his jumping and slightly overstates the likelihood of it happening. I am not convinced there will be a material difference in pace of the race as any advantage he may glean from a step up in trip will be negated by quicker ground and the fact that British handicaps races are run at a quicker pace generally.
i have backed him because it is hard to ignore a horse at 33-1 that will be highly competitive with a decent round of jumping but I could never bring myself to be anything more than hopeful about a horse who I half expect to be giving up on after two fences
His jumping doesn’t just need to improve it needs to transform. I think the impression you have given somewhat understates the level of improvement needed in his jumping and slightly overstates the likelihood of it happening. I am not convinced there will be a material difference in pace of the race as any advantage he may glean from a step up in trip will be negated by quicker ground and the fact that British handicaps races are run at a quicker pace generally.
i have backed him because it is hard to ignore a horse at 33-1 that will be highly competitive with a decent round of jumping but I could never bring myself to be anything more than hopeful about a horse who I half expect to be giving up on after two fences
I was probably a bit more generous to him than his jumping efforts have deserved.
But I thought his last run was a much improved effort.
Racing prominently over 2m1f on pretty quick ground at leopardstown.
OK it still needs to improve but I thought it was much better than previously where he's made some bad errors.
But i think we can both agree his jumping needs improvement.
I was probably a bit more generous to him than his jumping efforts have deserved.
But I thought his last run was a much improved effort.
Racing prominently over 2m1f on pretty quick ground at leopardstown.
OK it still needs to improve but I thought it was much better than previously where he's made some bad errors.
But i think we can both agree his jumping needs improvement.
And very importantly we both agree that if it does he is a big player. I wish us both luck
Now backed. Shanbally has been given absolutely no ride in any of his races for me so far. As Rooster says, from what our eyes can tell us, he has been a snooker table so far over fences and has that all to prove but i just have this gut feeling that the shackles will come off on Thursday and he is surely better than 129. That doesn't mean he can win but i would rather have him onside than not coming from that stable as a potential plot job. Nurburgring has been at the top of this list (with Gorgeous Tom) for a long time and is now in pole position so have no backed him too. That race is now sewn up for me, maybe have 1 more on the day depending on the market.
I don't think he will run, it's a race I have tried to get finished this week on that basis. He might well do but for now he is holding up the market. I will move on shanbally kid this morning after Aaron highlighted he will probably get in. I hadn't even looked. I assumed he was way down. Nurburgring is another I have probably waited too long on already but will gone in today and I am already on Jordans NRMB
I'd guessed he's run on the jockey would put up a load of overweight. But it's a proper guess that. Maybe he's a really light giant
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