Mares Novice Hurdle ‘25

[Eggs]

Like we did last year at this time, I think it’s worth splitting this race off from the Novice Hurdle thread as it’s pretty much a stand alone contest with a single discussion. Seemed to work well.

Current betting;

Maughreen 3-1
Sixandahalf 4-1
Jubilee Alpha 10-1
Aurora Vega 16-1
Galileo Dame 16-1
Just a Rose 16-1
Anno Power 16-1
Kientzheim 16-1

[Eggs]

….Harry Fry really bigged Anno Power up in his stable tour but things have clearly not gone to plan since her hurdles debut win;

“ She is as good as any of the good mares we have had. I’m not sure I’ve trained a horse with such a turn off foot before.”

Be interesting how she runs this afternoon, 20-1 WTAF.

[Rooster Booster]

….Harry Fry really bigged Anno Power up in his stable tour but things have clearly not gone to plan since her hurdles debut win;

“ She is as good as any of the good mares we have had. I’m not sure I’ve trained a horse with such a turn off foot before.”

Be interesting how she runs this afternoon, 20-1 WTAF.

Absolutely the season has not gone well at all. I am expecting her to be unimpressive and laboured today. It’s a poor race no doubt about that and if she is impressive this will be what folks focus on I’d imagine. For me if she is impressive I will not care two hoots about the strength of the form but I will mark her up simply because her season has not gone well at all and neither has the trainers,

[chunker86]

There has been nothing that has really come out as a superstar.

Sixandahalf should be clear fav based on what's been achieved on course.

But there's one lurking down the market that i really like for this - especially if the ground comes up soft.

Flying Fortune won the Persian War Grade 2 against the boys at Chepstow in October - the 3 horses in behind her have all come out and won since and it wouldn't be that common to see a 5yo mare win this race so she has plenty of upside.

4th was Ryans Rocket who has since gone chasing, picked up a handicap win and OR130
3rd was Vincenzo who has also gone chasing, picked up 2 handicap wins over 2 miles, including over Tedley now OR134
2nd was Intense Approach who has since won 2 hurdle races over 3miles at Cheltenham and Musselborough - giving Gale Mahler 7lbs and a 5l beating - now OR133

She absolutely hammered Intense Approach in the Persian War and these were the comments afterwards "Peter and Michael Bowen’s mare was sent off favourite following a hat-trick of wins completed in a valuable Class 2 last month. Held up by James Bowen, the sole mare in the field was pushed along to lead after the second last and soon boasted a clear advantage. Eased down close home, she led by seven and a half lengths on the line.

“This is a race I’ve always wanted to win and she was the best chance we’ve ever had in it so I’m delighted,” Peter Bowen said. “She’s taken a while to get the hang of things but is a good mare. She has a lovely attitude and has been very straightforward to train.”

On future plans, Bowen commented, “She’s been busy and could do with six weeks off. We would have to look at the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle in March.”

She hasn't been seen or heard of since hence she is well hidden in the market - but to me that form stacks up as good as anything else in here. She has the profile of a horse i like for this race as a second season hurdler with plenty of jumping experience under her belt, in a race that has a propensity for the classy horses not to run to their best.

The step back to 2m1 is a slight concern as her best form is over 2m3/2m4 but they way she travelled and then quickened in the Persian would suggest she has a turn of foot to go with these and she won't be stopping coming up the hill - historically horses with plenty of runs and form over further have performed well in this race. That the race is has been moved and is now the 1st race on the Wednesday will probably increase the chances of the inexperienced horses boiling over so she has a lot going for her this mare.

50s available on Unibet if you want 10p each way, or 33s NRNB with some proper books.

[Carnage at Taunton]

….Harry Fry really bigged Anno Power up in his stable tour but things have clearly not gone to plan since her hurdles debut win;

“ She is as good as any of the good mares we have had. I’m not sure I’ve trained a horse with such a turn off foot before.”

Be interesting how she runs this afternoon, 20-1 WTAF.

Yeah, I think that’s worth taking for me as a top up bet
Should win today and then hope all is well come March.
Has been a bad time for the stable as mentioned.

[TigerRolllllll]

Some thoughts….


Likely to need to run well into 130’s RPR at least to win this, so i look at horses i think might be capable of this for a shortlist….best RPRs in brackets


Sixandahalf (130 debut) - my main play & fancy

Maughreen (120 debut) - bad price, but poss might drift as previews start to pick apart value & one to back if price improves

Just Rose (125 debut)& poss better value of Nicholls ones as Jubilee had several goes to peak at 125

Kientzheim (116 debut) - Well bred (same breeder as Epatante) and open to lots improvement. Entered Sat

Karoline Banbou (113 debut)….runs tomorrow & debut was when Willie’s under a cloud. Was well touted before. Half sister to Epatante!

Air of Entitlement (119 debut)…probably main Henry play in race

Riskabahia - still no entry, but well talked up and one to back NRNB if entered

Aurora Vega (134) - posted best rating so far, but Willie says unlikely to go to Chelt. Frustrated as i have at 100-1

Galileo dame (125 + allowance).....poss switch from Triumph....hope not


Note - Anno Power runs later (2.55pm) and trainer holds in high regard, but not sure NHF form was that strong compared to some of above


Interested in others thoughts???

[Can't Catch Me]

Hey Sunshine been impressive last two starts. Love how she finishes her races and can see her devouring the hill. Possible she might be too far back at that point but still a decent each way price.

[Exar Essay]

Hey Sunshine been impressive last two starts. Love how she finishes her races and can see her devouring the hill. Possible she might be too far back at that point but still a decent each way price.

I'm steering clear of her at the moment. I really liked her too, but did a bit of digging and I'm not sure she'll be at the festival. If she is, she'll probably be backable on the day at a reasonable price.

[Can't Catch Me]

I'm steering clear of her at the moment. I really liked her too, but did a bit of digging and I'm not sure she'll be at the festival. If she is, she'll probably be backable on the day at a reasonable price.

Ok thanks for the update EE

[riccirich]

Place de la nation also entered in the mares race against karoline banbou tomorrow. Wonder could she be going the mares novice route with the allowance, since gigginstown have another one on the same card tomorrow who could be a triumph horse for them.

[darlojim]

Place de la nation also entered in the mares race against karoline banbou tomorrow. Wonder could she be going the mares novice route with the allowance, since gigginstown have another one on the same card tomorrow who could be a triumph horse for them.

Probably more the case of just getting these horses out now for Willie - See if any deserve their place on the boat.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Well that was not very good from AP!!
Hopefully nrmb!!!
Lost my little wtaf though

[Lobos]

Gets easier looking by the day for the favs

[ComplyOrDie]

It's Diva Luna 2.0. Both Pauling & Fry as bullish as ever as well.

Think plenty of recency bias went into thinking the British could win this race for the fourth year in a row, what with Golden Ace sluicing up last season.

All on Nicholls or Henderson to save the race from the Irish now.

[Rooster Booster]

It's Diva Luna 2.0. Both Pauling & Fry as bullish as ever as well.

Think plenty of recency bias went into thinking the British could win this race for the second year in a row, what with Golden Ace sluicing up last season.

All on Nicholls or Henderson to save the race from the Irish now.

You might want to rethink this one