2025 Mares Hurdle

[EnvoiAlien]

I have been building up an AP position on the related double of Lossie mares / BDA Churdle thinking along these lines. You’d think Gordon would get his way with BDA’s target if it came down to a choice of taking on Lossie or Constitution considering the differing prizes on offer. However, JDG’s recent performance and position in the mares market somewhat dampens the likelihood of Willie switching Lossie.

Fair point, I expect Kenny will be hoping Lossie & BDA both go to the Champion, but Willie won't mind aiming two or more at this.
Best of luck with your related double.

[ComplyOrDie]

Someone has offered a little over £1k @ 9/2 for Brighterdaysahead on the exchanges just now!

[EnvoiAlien]

If they think she can win the CH then she'll run, spending 2 years working towards that race will have no bearing on the conversation they'll be having in the next week,they'll be discussing her form,well being & opposition not the "plan", plans get made and dropped so often we only hear if them randomly, I'd be sure the plan for Fact To File was Gold Cup this season before he jumped a fence in public, much like Lossie with 2 weeks to go we're still not certain where he goes due to how his season has gone & how his opposition for that race has looked, willies probably dropped more plans in his time as a trainer than he's has Festival winners.

[Odin]

Someone has offered a little over £1k @ 9/2 for Brighterdaysahead on the exchanges just now!

How/why is this remarkable?

Realise that's quite a blunt question, but not really sure how else to phrase it!

[ComplyOrDie]

How/why is this remarkable?

Realise that's quite a blunt question, but not really sure how else to phrase it!

She's 6/4 ante post with Unibet, so 9/2 is a fair difference being offered up on the exchanges.

In terms of level of cash offered to back at that price, it's fairly substantial, based on what is usually available.

I wouldn't use the word 'remarkable' to describe it though was merely something I noticed that I thought could be a clue. The main thing about it was the figure offered up, probably the largest I've noticed this season, in one hit, for her on this race, especially at that price.

[Odin]

She's 6/4 ante post with Unibet, so 9/2 is a fair difference being offered up on the exchanges.

In terms of level of cash offered to back at that price, it's fairly substantial, based on what is usually available.

I wouldn't use the word 'remarkable' to describe it though was merely something I noticed that I thought could be a clue. The main thing about it was the figure offered up, probably the largest I've noticed this season, in one hit, for her on this race, especially at that price.

Ah OK, so it's a considerably greater stake than someone laying off what they've already got on and potentially indicates someone knows what's going to happen and is ready to make an "easy" 1k out of it if (when?) she's confirmed going to the Champion Hurdle?

Cheers

[ComplyOrDie]

Ah OK, so it's a considerably greater stake than someone laying off what they've already got on and potentially indicates someone knows what's going to happen and is ready to make an "easy" 1k out of it if (when?) she's confirmed going to the Mares?

Cheers

Potentially.

It could also be someone having a large stake on her already and shitting themselves that she won't go so are getting out of the bet, or trading off to guarantee profit.

Possibilities for all of the above.

[Istabraq]

The main thing about it was the figure offered up, probably the largest I've noticed this season, in one hit, for her on this race, especially at that price.

Good point this, not specific to the champion hurdle but every race;
Betfair create markets but the liquidity available ante post makes them irrelevant.
Betfair are struggling now with reduced punters who have gone elsewhere so are having to populate more and more markets with their money, these £1 and £2 offers you see are very probably their money to hide the fact no-one is trading, they're doing this across all sports and have been for a long time, only a day or two before racing (festival) will you see any real traders money, or bookmakers.
For standard midweek racing the market only really matures a few hours before the race.
Even now, twelve months after opening the market only £119k has been traded on the Champion Chase, that's under £60k been backed on the entire market, Ryanair £87k total, Gold Cup £219k.
We've all been looking for clues in the market for where horses are going but rarely do clues exist on the exchange before around now, an order of £1000 is significant and should be noted...

[darlojim]

Provided the main players do not come out of the race Willie can not win the Champion Hurdle with State Man. He has a better chance with Lossiemouth. It's been his 2 year plan.

Yet its very likely Paul will be riding State Man again instead of Lossie..

[ComplyOrDie]

Yet its very likely Paul will be riding State Man again instead of Lossie..

He's already said State Man is his favourite horse (not in so many words), so I wouldn't put too much stock into that, personally.

[Quevega]

Ah OK, so it's a considerably greater stake than someone laying off what they've already got on and potentially indicates someone knows what's going to happen and is ready to make an "easy" 1k out of it if (when?) she's confirmed going to the Mares?

Cheers

You mean champion ?

[darlojim]

He's already said State Man is his favourite horse (not in so many words), so I wouldn't put too much stock into that, personally.

Yes, but at the same time, he isn't foolish.

Adding to that, the yard have always been adamant SM is 'the one'

I do think there's every chance Lossie could divert IF BDA goes CH route.

I seen someone say the juice in the price has gone for that now, but I disagree strongly he's 11/2 with Priced Up and you can get 7.5 on the machine. She'll be a fraction of that if they go that way, for all it is a risky punt (and not one I have done yet.. )

[Carnage at Taunton]

Provided the main players do not come out of the race Willie can not win the Champion Hurdle with State Man. He has a better chance with Lossiemouth. It's been his 2 year plan.

Willie can win the Mares Hurdle with Jade De Grugy. He doesn't need Lossiemouth for that race.

Why defect from a 2 year plan when he has another mare for this race?

If Lossiemouth had stayed up at Leopardstown and dispatched of State Man, like many believe she would of, this wouldn't even be a conversation, regardless of where Brighterdaysahead goes.

They could defect from the plan as things can change in 2 years.
To me it all depends on how they think Lossiemouth would fare in the CH with CH and BDA in the race.
If they think she can beat both then it’s obvious what race.
If they think she’s likely finishing 2nd or 3rd at best then a decision will have to be made.
They might of course be sporting and let her take her chance in the CH, whatever they are thinking.

I still think she won’t be in the same race as BDA at Cheltenham and that early next week is crucial for both the CH and the Mares.

[Odin]

You mean champion ?

Yes edited above...

[Kevloaf]

If Paul is riding State Man

Lossiemouth runs here!

I would say there is ZERO percent chance that Paul thinks Lossiemouth would lose to Jade De Grugy, so if he rides State Man, this is an odds on Lossiemouth job



Let's face facts and open our minds to the possibility that either O'Leary or 'Ricci' don't do the right thing