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You think so?
If BDA turned up I would be hoping for my money back!!
Oops think I misunderstood
If so ignore me
What evidence over the track and trip would they fear to want your money back?
Both underperformed in the mares novice imo over 2m1f. Jade actually finished the season higher rated beating mares than BDA did beating the boys.
BDA showed a massive jump at Xmas with championship pace…..at 2m. Absolutely no way she adopts those tactics over 2m4f if she came this way imo. The toll it could take on her future wouldn’t be worth the risk imo.
What evidence over the track and trip would they fear to want your money back?
Both underperformed in the mares novice imo over 2m1f. Jade actually finished the season higher rated beating mares than BDA did beating the boys.
BDA showed a massive jump at Xmas with championship pace…..at 2m. Absolutely no way she adopts those tactics over 2m4f if she came this way imo. The toll it could take on her future wouldn’t be worth the risk imo.
Just think BDA is a better horse this season and has shown it.
Think she will be in the CH anyway, and so she should be
Just To add…..Imo she’s the second best at 2miles and the best at 2 and half.
I think she would absolutely piss the Mares.
mighty potter 0-2 Cheltenham
French dynamite 0-2 Cheltenham
Caldwell potter 0-1 Cheltenham
Might be nothing but maybe they just don't like the track. Mighty potter definitely didnt. French dynamite did run 2 of his best races there and caldwell is a donkey so probably can be ignored. Probably.
mighty potter 0-2 Cheltenham
French dynamite 0-2 Cheltenham
Caldwell potter 0-1 Cheltenham
Might be nothing but maybe they just don't like the track. Mighty potter definitely didnt. French dynamite did run 2 of his best races there and caldwell is a donkey so probably can be ignored. Probably.
Might be nothing, might get ignored.
But worth mentioning imo
I wouldn't want 4/1 (now best 3/1) for Jade De Grugy if she was up against BDA
The NRNB doesn't help... as she'd run and be shorter, or the same price
Bit OTT IMO
Obviously backed her aaaaaages ago myself so not complaining but 3/1 NRNB as of right now is just, meh? Unless you strongly feed BDa doesn't run
Positives are she's at least got out prior to chelt, and won well enough on testing enough ground giving weight away, but she did beat a bunch of 3 milers in 2nd and 3rd.
If the big '2' don't come here, then yeah the 3/1 looks good, but wouldn't be dismissing July Flower, she's definitely a quicker horse than Jade imo and sometimes the Mares is won with a bit of speed.
You think so?
If BDA turned up I would be hoping for my money back!!
Oops think I misunderstood
If so ignore me
I just meant that if BDA ran, she'd probably be 4/9. And Jade De Grugy would probably be second fav and the bookies wouldn't want to give you an EW bet - it'd be a dangerous "shot to nothing" if they did. So she would probably be 4/1 on the day.
If BDA doesn't run, then Jade would probably be a 5/2 fav. Maybe ...
What evidence over the track and trip would they fear to want your money back?
Both underperformed in the mares novice imo over 2m1f. Jade actually finished the season higher rated beating mares than BDA did beating the boys.
BDA showed a massive jump at Xmas with championship pace…..at 2m. Absolutely no way she adopts those tactics over 2m4f if she came this way imo. The toll it could take on her future wouldn’t be worth the risk imo.
Actually her biggest jump was between last seasons form and her first run this season, the two rises since have been smaller but consistent showing that a) even first time out she had improved significantly from last season and b)that her improvement since has been steady. I think it’s often assumed that her run at Christmas was somehow on a completely different level and more a factor of tactics deployed rather than natural improvement but if you had drawn a trend line from last season through to her first two runs this season then projected forward prior to her December run it would have landed somewhere very close to her actual performance.
I just meant that if BDA ran, she'd probably be 4/9. And Jade De Grugy would probably be second fav and the bookies wouldn't want to give you an EW bet - it'd be a dangerous "shot to nothing" if they did. So she would probably be 4/1 on the day.
If BDA doesn't run, then Jade would probably be a 5/2 fav. Maybe ...
Just think BDA is a better horse this season and has shown it.
Think she will be in the CH anyway, and so she should be
Just To add…..Imo she’s the second best at 2miles and the best at 2 and half.
I think she would absolutely piss the Mares.
Agree she should definitely go champion on her previous performance so time will tell.
Don't agree about pissing the mares though. Soon find out if she comes this way.
Actually her biggest jump was between last seasons form and her first run this season, the two rises since have been smaller but consistent showing that a) even first time out she had improved significantly from last season and b)that her improvement since has been steady. I think it’s often assumed that her run at Christmas was somehow on a completely different level and more a factor of tactics deployed rather than natural improvement but if you had drawn a trend line from last season through to her first two runs this season then projected forward prior to her December run it would have landed somewhere very close to her actual performance.
Her latest run was the same as her first run but I get your point (8lbs on both occasions).
From a performance point of view though I don’t think her first or second run were ‘that’ good with comparisons to her Xmas run. Her Xmas run was phenomenal, to keep that pace at 2m all the way to the line. Suppose we can argue if beating King Of Kingsfield deserved an 8lbs rise or if State Man was slightly undercooked first run but for me she put both those performances aside. Visually that was miles and miles her best performance at Xmas. I’m wary if she doesn’t have those tactics she may not produce a similar rating or outcome. I get what you’re saying about the path or rating though, I’m probably looking at the performances and trying to use those along with the ratings to see where she stacks. Those tactics are the only way she beats Lossie or C hill imo in the champion.
Her latest run was the same as her first run but I get your point (8lbs on both occasions).
From a performance point of view though I don’t think her first or second run were ‘that’ good with comparisons to her Xmas run. Her Xmas run was phenomenal, to keep that pace at 2m all the way to the line. Suppose we can argue if beating King Of Kingsfield deserved an 8lbs rise or if State Man was slightly undercooked first run but for me she put both those performances aside. Visually that was miles and miles her best performance at Xmas. I’m wary if she doesn’t have those tactics she may not produce a similar rating or outcome. I get what you’re saying about the path or rating though, I’m probably looking at the performances and trying to use those along with the ratings to see where she stacks. Those tactics are the only way she beats Lossie or C hill imo in the champion.
I should have clarified I was referring to rprs which have gone from 145 highest and last run last season to 155 fto this season (+10) to 159 at punchestown (+4) to 165 Leopardstown (+6).
With regard to your last sentence…then she’ll use those tactics and beat them then
I should have clarified I was referring to rprs which have gone from 145 highest and last run last season to 155 fto this season (+10) to 159 at punchestown (+4) to 165 Leopardstown (+6).
With regard to your last sentence…then she’ll use those tactics and beat them then
Haha I should have clarified with ‘only way she has a chance of beating’
Typing too quick on my phone than my brain could go!
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