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Have either travelled at that pace before in their races ? Were State Man and Lossiemouth travelling as quick last time ? Someone on here must have done the timings.
They were 21 lengths ahead of Kopek's race - when she fell. Something like that anyway.
But not quite as quick as BDA was - but the ground was much worse the other day.
So they were going quick enough, probably too quick.
But he hasn't had to.
Whether he will need to reach his peak to win the champion hurdle depends on who turns up.
He's already beaten one of his main market rivals after a year off.
The only one who could actually trouble him on what we've seen from him in the last TWO years is BDA and she's got the option of the Mares.
Hardly blind faith is it
You haven’t responded directly to my point which is a little disappointing considering how frustrated you get when others do that to you.
This is what you said in your post.
So while it may appear to some Constitution Hill isn’t at his peak , to me he has not done anything to suggest otherwise and he’ll batter them all
The first half of your sentence implies heavily that you feel he is still at his peak (otherwise why distinguish yourself from the ‘some’ you mention) to which I comment he hasn’t shown any evidence of still being at that level for two years therefore it would require blind faith to assume he still is(that is the literal definition of blind faith) I.e. believing something to be true despite no evidence.
The second half of your sentence clearly implies that because he hasn’t definitively proven he is not at his peak then it should be assumed he is. This is why I said the absence of a negative does not prove a positive.
Rather than responding to these two points specifically you chose to respond by giving your reason why you think he will win. I never said he wouldn’t did I? I think he still deserves to be favourite but I think if BDA pitches up and replicates her most recent run he will need to be very close to his peak to beat her and we have had no evidence to say he is for two years. That is a fact. Assuming he is still at his peak is not a fact it’s a guess and a guess that is held as strongly as yours despite no concrete evidence is exactly what blind faith is.
Have either travelled at that pace before in their races ? Were State Man and Lossiemouth travelling as quick last time ? Someone on here must have done the timings.
Don't know about the timings, but if the speedometer is to be believed then these were my findings (I've taken the early speed, mid-race speed & finishing speed),:
Constitution Hill (Christmas Hurdle, Kempton (Good)) - 1-3f 32-34mph
Constitution Hill (Christmas Hurdle, Kempton) - 1m-1m2f 34-36mph
Constitution Hill (Christmas Hurdle, Kempton) - 1m5f-Finish 32-36mph
Lossiemouth (Irish Champion Hurdle, Leopardstown (Soft)) - 1-3f 31-33mph
Lossiemouth (Irish Champion Hurdle, Leopardstown) - 1m-1m2f (Lossiemouth fell just before this point) 31-32mph
I'm not really sure what it tells us other than Constitution Hill can absolutely go the gallop and it wouldn't be outside of his comfort zone. Obviously Kempton is a very quick track anyway, not to mention the Good ground on the day, which is why Lossiemouth got outpaced early on, but she stayed well to the line, which is room for encouragement on a stiffer track like Cheltenham. There was little let up in the pace in the Christmas Hurdle either, unlike that in the Neville Hotels Hurdle where Brighterdaysahead managed to have a breather, back down to between 30-32mph mid-race, albeit that track is stiffer than Kempton too, so I wouldn't like to take direct comparisons between the tracks as gospel. Lossiemouth in the Irish Champion Hurdle on softer ground, they were going a fair gallop early on, accounting for ground conditions. Because we didn't get to see Lossiemouth finish off the race it is hard to tell whether she'd have made it home doing the same level of speed, but State Man certainly didn't look like he was going to be able to by the end of the race. We know Lossiemouth stays further so she may have had no issue, that we'll never know though.
Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 12 February 2025, 11:48 AM.
You haven’t responded directly to my point which is a little disappointing considering how frustrated you get when others do that to you.
This is what you said in your post.
So while it may appear to some Constitution Hill isn’t at his peak , to me he has not done anything to suggest otherwise and he’ll batter them all
The first half of your sentence implies heavily that you feel he is still at his peak (otherwise why distinguish yourself from the ‘some’ you mention) to which I comment he hasn’t shown any evidence of still being at that level for two years therefore it would require blind faith to assume he still is(that is the literal definition of blind faith) I.e. believing something to be true despite no evidence.
The second half of your sentence clearly implies that because he hasn’t definitively proven he is not at his peak then it should be assumed he is. This is why I said the absence of a negative does not prove a positive.
Rather than responding to these two points specifically you chose to respond by giving your reason why you think he will win. I never said he wouldn’t did I? I think he still deserves to be favourite but I think if BDA pitches up and replicates her most recent run he will need to be very close to his peak to beat her and we have had no evidence to say he is for two years. That is a fact. Assuming he is still at his peak is not a fact it’s a guess and a guess that is held as strongly as yours despite no concrete evidence is exactly what blind faith is.
Does God exist ?
There is no evidence to say he doesn't.
Don't know about the timings, but if the speedometer is to be believed then these were my findings (I've taken the early speed, mid-race speed & finishing speed),:
Constitution Hill (Christmas Hurdle, Kempton (Good)) - 1-3f 32-34mph
Constitution Hill (Christmas Hurdle, Kempton) - 1m-1m2f 34-36mph
Constitution Hill (Christmas Hurdle, Kempton) - 1m5f-Finish 32-36mph
Lossiemouth (Irish Champion Hurdle, Leopardstown (Soft)) - 1-3f 31-33mph
Lossiemouth (Irish Champion Hurdle, Leopardstown) - 1m-1m2f (Lossiemouth fell just before this point) 31-32mph
I'm not really sure what it tells us other than Constitution Hill can absolutely go the gallop and it wouldn't be outside of his comfort zone. Obviously Kempton is a very quick track anyway, not to mention the Good ground on the day, which is why Lossiemouth got outpaced early on, but she stayed well to the line, which is room for encouragement on a stiffer track like Cheltenham. There was little let up in the pace in the Christmas Hurdle either, unlike that in the Neville Hotels Hurdle where Brighterdaysahead managed to have a breather, back down to between 30-32mph mid-race, albeit that track is stiffer than Kempton too, so I wouldn't like to take direct comparisons between the tracks as gospel. Lossiemouth in the Irish Champion Hurdle on softer ground, they were going a fair gallop early on, accounting for ground conditions. Because we didn't get to see Lossiemouth finish off the race it is hard to tell whether she'd have made it home doing the same level of speed, but State Man certainly didn't look like he was going to be able to by the end of the race. We know Lossiemouth stays further so she may have had no issue, that we'll never know though.
I'd have stopped their Cod.
Hope you cut and pasted.
You haven’t responded directly to my point which is a little disappointing considering how frustrated you get when others do that to you.
This is what you said in your post.
So while it may appear to some Constitution Hill isn’t at his peak , to me he has not done anything to suggest otherwise and he’ll batter them all
The first half of your sentence implies heavily that you feel he is still at his peak (otherwise why distinguish yourself from the ‘some’ you mention) to which I comment he hasn’t shown any evidence of still being at that level for two years therefore it would require blind faith to assume he still is(that is the literal definition of blind faith) I.e. believing something to be true despite no evidence.
The second half of your sentence clearly implies that because he hasn’t definitively proven he is not at his peak then it should be assumed he is. This is why I said the absence of a negative does not prove a positive.
Rather than responding to these two points specifically you chose to respond by giving your reason why you think he will win. I never said he wouldn’t did I? I think he still deserves to be favourite but I think if BDA pitches up and replicates her most recent run he will need to be very close to his peak to beat her and we have had no evidence to say he is for two years. That is a fact. Assuming he is still at his peak is not a fact it’s a guess and a guess that is held as strongly as yours despite no concrete evidence is exactly what blind faith is.
Surely the first sentence of my reply responded directly to your point ?
If I had just said that and not backed it up showing some race speeds I would have felt 'daft' Not to mention it would have felt a bit half arsed
Forcing no one to read it either
I thought it was an interesting read.
Not really been one to wager on timings in different races though, but interesting anyway.
Ive never had any doubts about CH going at a decent pace, think he’s pretty much always done that.
I saw enough this season from him and his rivals to be pretty confident he can cope with whatever is thrown at him.
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