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2025 Mares Hurdle
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Originally posted by Lobos View Post
Agree. 2m (County) is the better trip for Kargesse anyway. May mean Kopeck to the Coral Cup.......
What mark is he likely to get?
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Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
She was very good.
Not even sure Kargese will turn up now. She may go down the handicap route after that.
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Originally posted by Lobos View PostJust watched JDG back. Very happy with that and you'd think a lot more to come. Her time out might turn out to be very advantageous. No doubt in my mind Paul will ride her over Kargesse.
As others have said I reckon that has rubber stamped Lossiemouth's Champion Hurdle place and it also makes the decision of sending BDA to the CH a little easier as well as the Mares doesn't look a penalty kick now with an in form JDG in there.
Not even sure Kargese will turn up now. She may go down the handicap route after that.
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Just watched JDG back. Very happy with that and you'd think a lot more to come. Her time out might turn out to be very advantageous. No doubt in my mind Paul will ride her over Kargesse.
As others have said I reckon that has rubber stamped Lossiemouth's Champion Hurdle place and it also makes the decision of sending BDA to the CH a little easier as well as the Mares doesn't look a penalty kick now with an in form JDG in there.
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Originally posted by Carnage at Taunton View Post
Might be nothing, might get ignored.
But worth mentioning imo
Apples jade was never at her brilliant best at cheltenham either. She still won the mares though.
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Originally posted by Craigy14 View Post
Agree she should definitely go champion on her previous performance so time will tell.
Don't agree about pissing the mares though. Soon find out if she comes this way.
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Originally posted by Rooster Booster View Post
I should have clarified I was referring to rprs which have gone from 145 highest and last run last season to 155 fto this season (+10) to 159 at punchestown (+4) to 165 Leopardstown (+6).
With regard to your last sentence…then she’ll use those tactics and beat them then
Typing too quick on my phone than my brain could go!
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Originally posted by Craigy14 View Post
Her latest run was the same as her first run but I get your point (8lbs on both occasions).
From a performance point of view though I don’t think her first or second run were ‘that’ good with comparisons to her Xmas run. Her Xmas run was phenomenal, to keep that pace at 2m all the way to the line. Suppose we can argue if beating King Of Kingsfield deserved an 8lbs rise or if State Man was slightly undercooked first run but for me she put both those performances aside. Visually that was miles and miles her best performance at Xmas. I’m wary if she doesn’t have those tactics she may not produce a similar rating or outcome. I get what you’re saying about the path or rating though, I’m probably looking at the performances and trying to use those along with the ratings to see where she stacks. Those tactics are the only way she beats Lossie or C hill imo in the champion.
With regard to your last sentence…then she’ll use those tactics and beat them then
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Originally posted by Rooster Booster View Post
Actually her biggest jump was between last seasons form and her first run this season, the two rises since have been smaller but consistent showing that a) even first time out she had improved significantly from last season and b)that her improvement since has been steady. I think it’s often assumed that her run at Christmas was somehow on a completely different level and more a factor of tactics deployed rather than natural improvement but if you had drawn a trend line from last season through to her first two runs this season then projected forward prior to her December run it would have landed somewhere very close to her actual performance.
From a performance point of view though I don’t think her first or second run were ‘that’ good with comparisons to her Xmas run. Her Xmas run was phenomenal, to keep that pace at 2m all the way to the line. Suppose we can argue if beating King Of Kingsfield deserved an 8lbs rise or if State Man was slightly undercooked first run but for me she put both those performances aside. Visually that was miles and miles her best performance at Xmas. I’m wary if she doesn’t have those tactics she may not produce a similar rating or outcome. I get what you’re saying about the path or rating though, I’m probably looking at the performances and trying to use those along with the ratings to see where she stacks. Those tactics are the only way she beats Lossie or C hill imo in the champion.
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Originally posted by Carnage at Taunton View Post
Just think BDA is a better horse this season and has shown it.
Think she will be in the CH anyway, and so she should be
Just To add…..Imo she’s the second best at 2miles and the best at 2 and half.
I think she would absolutely piss the Mares.
Don't agree about pissing the mares though. Soon find out if she comes this way.
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Originally posted by Exar Essay View Post
I just meant that if BDA ran, she'd probably be 4/9. And Jade De Grugy would probably be second fav and the bookies wouldn't want to give you an EW bet - it'd be a dangerous "shot to nothing" if they did. So she would probably be 4/1 on the day.
If BDA doesn't run, then Jade would probably be a 5/2 fav. Maybe ...
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Originally posted by Craigy14 View Post
What evidence over the track and trip would they fear to want your money back?
Both underperformed in the mares novice imo over 2m1f. Jade actually finished the season higher rated beating mares than BDA did beating the boys.
BDA showed a massive jump at Xmas with championship pace…..at 2m. Absolutely no way she adopts those tactics over 2m4f if she came this way imo. The toll it could take on her future wouldn’t be worth the risk imo.
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