2025 Mares Hurdle

[thorne365]

fwiw I also laid out the matched stake at 10.5 to see what would happen

[thorne365]

Feel free to take this with a pinch of salt - I'm sure others have pieces of the puzzle I don't!

I think that at the moment the money that money that we see on the exchanges is from a very small pool of liquidity providers [v likely just betfair themselves] that have bots built with the role of making the markets appear relatively tight [this is probably some function of total traded to date] to tempt some outside money in [for small amounts]. I would imagine that they don't have an opinion of the target price themselves but instead react to market signals [i.e. money coming in from people listening at previews] and drive the prices in the direction those signals point to. Because of this a small amount of info / money can lead to a large price movement unless there is a corresponding stopping force [which, based on this forum where nobody put their head above the parapet, didn't seem to manifest in Lossie's case].

Now it's possibly / probably / definitely coincidence, but right before the latest movement:
- I put money up to back at 17 [because I just felt the price was wrong and have a good position in the mares]
- got partially matched
- The back priced dropped 2 points immediately
- I didn't pay it any attention until i saw the updates here about 20 minutes later.

Now if somebody is tracking the matched amounts they could easily disprove this, but my hypothesis is that a small bit of 'new info' into the system triggered a rebalance of prices automatically as opposed to minds being changed etc etc. This would also satisfy whats being seen with KDM

[FinalFurlong91]

This one seems purely driven by Ricci's comments earlier this week at a preview. I've seen or heard nothing actually from the yard save for Willie's Sporting Life stable tour which expressed a preference for the Champion Hurdle. Sounds like it's punters getting sucked in wherever they perceive there to be 'value'.

And we know willie decides where they go not ricci

[Irish Rugby]

It's not even bingo any more. This is now so blatant that trainers and owners are saying things deliberately so that people will back them for the wrong races. Unless they are officially confirming a horse for a race they shouldn't say anything.

This one seems purely driven by Ricci's comments earlier this week at a preview. I've seen or heard nothing actually from the yard save for Willie's Sporting Life stable tour which expressed a preference for the Champion Hurdle. Sounds like it's punters getting sucked in wherever they perceive there to be 'value'.

[Yosser]

Lossie on the drift again on the exchanges for the mares and shortening for the champ hurdle. This is really taking the piss now

It's not even bingo any more. This is now so blatant that trainers and owners are saying things deliberately so that people will back them for the wrong races. Unless they are officially confirming a horse for a race they shouldn't say anything.

[Studfarm254]

Lossie on the drift again on the exchanges for the mares and shortening for the champ hurdle. This is really taking the piss now

[Ballybeen]

Lossiemouth on the drift for those on the exchanges and coming in in price for the champions now too.

[Quevega]

Because clearly people would have been losing their mind at her constantly going for the mares send not winning the stayers

I think plenty were from memory.
Which probably shows even if it was downgraded back to a grade 2, with penalties - there will likely be calls for the best mares to try against the boys.

[Hurricane fly]

Thought so.

Because clearly people would have been losing their mind at her constantly going for the mares send not winning the stayers

[Quevega]

Would have loved to have been reading this thread when Quevega was running

Thought so.

[Rooster Booster]

Why is that ?

You need to quash this rumour immediately

[Quevega]

Would have loved to have been reading this thread when Quevega was running

Why is that ?

[Hurricane fly]

Would have loved to have been reading this thread when Quevega was running

[Rooster Booster]

I learnt a long time ago that looking for or trying to provide balance often reduces credibility rather than increasing it. . The modern world is such that collaboration and compromise and open mindedness have become weaknesses and competing and certainty and strength of conviction and defeating anyone that opposes your view have become symbols of strength and I see this filter down to us in its own small way quite a lot. Q is 100% right ….if dogmatism and adamancy were so profitable why aren’t those that choose that path rich beyond rich already.

I have been doing this for decades now. I am not useless at it but I am nowhere near as good as I want to be and my level of improvement is not as quick as I’d like it to be. This place is better than anywhere around it really is but maybe we are not yet maximising our combined talent. My belief is we are spending a little too long in ‘the room of right and wrong ‘ with each other and not enough time trying to become a unit that is stronger as a whole than the sum of its individual parts. We have our moments with the yankees and the under the radar threads and other bits and pieces but I think maybe we could achieve even more if we had some sort of collective profitability as a more prominent objective.

Just one example (and with the collective brains on here if we put our minds to it there would be many many more in a matter of hours). ….why only have one person doing one Naiad per year. Spectre is phenomenal no doubt. But many others on here are as well …are we really maximising our collective strength? Kev is a genius with betting strategies, Q is phenomenal with handicaps Darlo fucking awesome with the frenchies and so on. It wouldn’t take too much to take our resources and mould them into something even more outstanding.

Listen I am an idealist as you can tell and my kind have kind of become the worlds red headed step children so I’ll retreat back now to my own mediocrity…as you were everyone

[Carnage at Taunton]

This is not aimed at you alone, or meant to come across as "having a go at you", but I'm seeing this sort of talk a bit too much for my liking recently in a few places, and it honestly enrages me. If i was a stupid person it would drive me to go on twitter and start slandering people who made these sort of points, thankfully I'm not that type

This notion that fact to file can't beat galopin, and lossie cant beat con hill etc, is 100% bullshit, and thats a fact. Lossie has faced him once, and been beat 2l, and there have been valid reasons guven from both camps about how theyre charge can improve. When the distance is that small one iffy momentum losing jump at a crucial time, or a brilliant ride from lossies jockey could be all it would take. Different track and ground possibly can also affect the result. Thats even before you get to con hills litany of problems and the fact he still hasn't proved he's the horse he was yet. He also has a mistake in him, and has only ran in about three top class races in his whole life, and probably about two races where the opposition has actually tried to beat him. This would be by far the best race he has ever ran in, and he still has to prove he's the horse he was.

Same with fact to file. The obvious conclusion is galopin will outstay him even more over further. But fact to file does stay the trip himself, just not as strongly as galopin. And they're are loads of things that could happen in ftf favour. Jp could run his other two and try to hassle galopin for the lead if he tries to make all and leave him a bit more vulnerable at the finish that he has been. Or they could surprise everyone and let ftf bowl along and use hus jumping and try to conserve a bit make it a bit more of a sprint finish on decent ground which would suit, while his other two try to box galopin in to give ftf first run. Or galopin could just not find as much as usual on the day, he has to start declining at some point, and it's very hard to keep going to the well in continuous war of attritions.

Also as we all know, any horse can fall, get brought down, struck into, finish lame, defibrillating heart etc etc especially in top races going all out. If every horse avoided a horse that beat them once a twice, we may as well end the sport now, as its finished. Energumene wouldnt have took on shishkin again, as conditions were perfect for him at ascot and he couldnt get it done, so he wont at Cheltenham. Jonbon would have avoided el fabiolo as he was destroyed by him. Pointless having another go at gold cup with a plus card as minella indo beat him fair and square, ryanair for him from now on. Put the kettle on can't beat chacun pour soi as he thrashed her at leopardstown, why would cheltenham be any different. The list goes on. Different day, different track, different ground, different rides, different way the race is ran, different levels of fitness, horses improving, horses declining etc. All can swing a race when your talking about having to make up a couple of lengths.

Again not a rant aimed at you in particular, you were just the most recent in a long line of people im seeing talking like this. The people in charge need to make more changes evidently, as its obvious you cant rely on owners/trainers being sporting, or simply having a set of balls on them.

I’m absolutely fine with all that.
Im not an owner so therefore I have absolutely no problem with a race full of hopefuls hoping to reverse form, or whatever other reason they have for running in a race that all logic says they are up against it.
I want to see Lossiemouth in the CH, I want to see FTF in the Gold Cup, I wanted Vautour in the Gold Cup and on and on for many years since the invention of 4 days.
All I’m doing here is looking at the owners point of view and trying to understand reasoning behind decisions made, and why they are taking advantage of the festival format.
And to me it’s for them all about having a winner.
Jockeys are selfish and want winners too, PT probably has his say and thinks…. ooh I can have the winner of two races if so and so don’t run here but runs there instead, probably trainer as well.
The problem lies with the way the festival is now structured race wise, and unless that changes these frustrations we ALL share will continue.
In a way we’ve all contributed to creating a monster( the festival)be it us fans going on a forum from September to March, the media banging on about it from year to year asking connections in October what race in March? I could go on……
So no huge shock then to see how big it’s become just to have a winner in March!! However big or small the race is!!or however that affects the enjoyment for the people that bet on the races and ultimately keep it the sport it is.