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We could get really deep with the premise that all decisions people make are illusions.
But I do agree that the manipulation power lies with Mullins for sure.
Best to discuss after the festival ... if I end up not fidning the winner of the Coral Cup because I've been flapping my gums about this I'd be upset
Back to this race, i think if I was starting fresh today I'd look at 12/1 July Flower and back that each way...
The number of live bets I have left pre-Christmas to live bets I place from NRNB to now (and still counting) is vastly different
I think you have to factor in 'opportunity created' ... as having a decent ante post price a way out makes it easier to play around and potentially create nice situations.... but as I've said many a time, I usually don't start until October, and I build books ... so I think anyone backing horses earlier than I am, is potentially making their lives harder, or is essentially not as good as they think they are at ante post punting Book building also doesn't mean just backing every horse as soon as it appears in the market
The number of people (mainly twitter/X) that seem to just mention every horse and if it's good happens to be in their 'portfolio' and if not you never hear it again is not reflective of the truth.... anyway....
Right, going to try and answer this carefully ....
"An owner like Ricci will always have final say, even if he often goes along with what they advise, and might be a touch gullible. It's his and his wife's horse."
Yes, i agree, that's a literal statement ... ultimately every owner has 'the final say' ... and with 'an owner like Ricci', I assume (correct if I'm wrong) you mean they'd have more impact than myself... as part of a syndicate with Dan Skelton ... where ultimately the rules are, he trains the horse and picks the target and it's in the best interest of the horse, and he runs where trainer says he runs and if you don't like it, don't have a horse with him?
"And in this instance, despite what they eventually come out with, I'd be pretty sure Ricci has had final say on this call." -
I think this is where I disagree, on a technical point ... as yes he would have the final say, but how they get to that say .. isn't his 'decision' ... as you go on to point out, they're getting their way however they like .... so therefore, when you know this is how they operate, he doesn't 'really' have the opinion.... of course he pays the money so ultimately he COULD say, yes, run in the Champion Hurdle .... but that'd be fucking buts wouldn't it? ...... To think you know better than Willie? He COULD, but he isn't that kind of owner .....
I don't think Rich Ricci knows enough about the game to try and overrule Willie really ... he wouldn't want to die on this 'HILL' (pun intended) ... they'll have other horses. He'll have another chance at some point
Owner is on record saying that."gold cup or nothing"...... when you think about that logically, do you think that was Ricci saying that in the first place? Of course not. You know that... so this illusion that he makes the decisions is nonsense IMO .... I know that you can win the arguement and say technically he does, but you must understand that he's not going to rock the boat.
We had evidence of this happening previously, I have been consistent all season with my opinion on where Lossiemouth would run, even though I think it's a poor decision, it was obvious, and I did back accordingly. I understand people want her beat, people want to boo connections etc.... all absolutely fine,.... I'm literally choosing not to go because instead of the best Champion Hurdle of my generation, it's 4x odds on shots..... but I like getting paid out on my opinions, and this one was correct, based on evidence that I've seen before, and it's the opposite of your opinion on this matter
token emoji so you know I'm not angry
We could get really deep with the premise that all decisions people make are illusions.
But I do agree that the manipulation power lies with Mullins for sure.
The number of live bets I have left pre-Christmas to live bets I place from NRNB to now (and still counting) is vastly different
I think you have to factor in 'opportunity created' ... as having a decent ante post price a way out makes it easier to play around and potentially create nice situations.... but as I've said many a time, I usually don't start until October, and I build books ... so I think anyone backing horses earlier than I am, is potentially making their lives harder, or is essentially not as good as they think they are at ante post punting Book building also doesn't mean just backing every horse as soon as it appears in the market
The number of people (mainly twitter/X) that seem to just mention every horse and if it's good happens to be in their 'portfolio' and if not you never hear it again is not reflective of the truth.... anyway....
One of those things we disagree on.
An owner like Ricci will always have final say, even if he often goes along with what they advise, and might be a touch gullible. It's his and his wife's horse.
And in this instance, despite what they eventually come out with, I'd be pretty sure Ricci has had final say on this call.
Owners on record saying Vautour goes to the Gold cup or nothing.
That decision was different also as I mentioned earlier, as he had Djakadam - and Ruby and Mullins in his ear saying he was outworking Vautour and was a cert for the Gold cup
I'd have loved to have seen the video of that, the acceleration Djakadam had was legendary
He's as much a gobshite as the rest of us, and prone to trotting out tired old tropes as well.
Right, going to try and answer this carefully ....
"An owner like Ricci will always have final say, even if he often goes along with what they advise, and might be a touch gullible. It's his and his wife's horse."
Yes, i agree, that's a literal statement ... ultimately every owner has 'the final say' ... and with 'an owner like Ricci', I assume (correct if I'm wrong) you mean they'd have more impact than myself... as part of a syndicate with Dan Skelton ... where ultimately the rules are, he trains the horse and picks the target and it's in the best interest of the horse, and he runs where trainer says he runs and if you don't like it, don't have a horse with him?
"And in this instance, despite what they eventually come out with, I'd be pretty sure Ricci has had final say on this call." -
I think this is where I disagree, on a technical point ... as yes he would have the final say, but how they get to that say .. isn't his 'decision' ... as you go on to point out, they're getting their way however they like .... so therefore, when you know this is how they operate, he doesn't 'really' have the opinion.... of course he pays the money so ultimately he COULD say, yes, run in the Champion Hurdle .... but that'd be fucking buts wouldn't it? ...... To think you know better than Willie? He COULD, but he isn't that kind of owner .....
I don't think Rich Ricci knows enough about the game to try and overrule Willie really ... he wouldn't want to die on this 'HILL' (pun intended) ... they'll have other horses. He'll have another chance at some point
Owner is on record saying that."gold cup or nothing"...... when you think about that logically, do you think that was Ricci saying that in the first place? Of course not. You know that... so this illusion that he makes the decisions is nonsense IMO .... I know that you can win the arguement and say technically he does, but you must understand that he's not going to rock the boat.
We had evidence of this happening previously, I have been consistent all season with my opinion on where Lossiemouth would run, even though I think it's a poor decision, it was obvious, and I did back accordingly. I understand people want her beat, people want to boo connections etc.... all absolutely fine,.... I'm literally choosing not to go because instead of the best Champion Hurdle of my generation, it's 4x odds on shots..... but I like getting paid out on my opinions, and this one was correct, based on evidence that I've seen before, and it's the opposite of your opinion on this matter
Paul T getting a bit of stick. Hes the one person in my book who doesnt deserve any. He loves State man. Hes said it numerous times. He chose him last day over Lossie. Of course if he has the option to ride her in the mares hes going to take it. But the owner could have balls and put his foot down and say no she goes with Danny onboard. Or whoever. Get cobden if you want to try something different. But you could hear from Rich at the preview the other night he was already chickening out.
Willie and the 2 year plan as well. Hes going to have winners in the week, its not like Rich with his only main shot. He would have had a short price fav with Jade de Grugy anyway. And other backup mares.
One more point. I’m very happy to share information with the group about my horses and their targets. Just a little galling when individuals shout me down and tell me that I’m wrong. Just trying to help
Please share GV. I'm listening. Bored of the rest of them on here....
One more point. I’m very happy to share information with the group about my horses and their targets. Just a little galling when individuals shout me down and tell me that I’m wrong. Just trying to help
They're ok to a point if you have cash out. I do them as well, but I know I'm likely wasting.
Yeah I have Majborough (before Gino dropped) with BDA & Lossie, shit like that.
Again, with cash out you can manouvre them a bit as things develop.
I'm actually a bit light on C Hill now as I lost the combo's I had with Gino and Gaelic, so need to cover him more, as a lot riding on BDA at minute.
Love it. I’ve just got a lot riding in the cheese and port at hotel du vin. Then I’m opening my humidor in the cigar cabana
good luck everyone
Yeah I try to keep antepost multiples very low in numbers and stakes, theres the odd one I have a go at but rarely ever goes well. Port joulain and good n kind from last year was one from memory that i did a couple reverse doubles with. Both debut in a traditionally hot race, pull well clear of the third, record good bumper rpr's, right connections etc. A year later one has been disappointing and one hasn't been seen. I'll still do a few but it's mainly just a bit of interest and the dream of a huge payout, but I realistically expect nothing at all from them and don't focus much on them at all.
Only a month ago you could have got a kopek, final demand and lossie nrnb treble at about 400/1 probably. It's really much better to put more work in at that point.
They're ok to a point if you have cash out. I do them as well, but I know I'm likely wasting.
Yeah I have Majborough (before Gino dropped) with BDA & Lossie, shit like that.
Again, with cash out you can manouvre them a bit as things develop.
I'm actually a bit light on C Hill now as I lost the combo's I had with Gino and Gaelic, so need to cover him more, as a lot riding on BDA at minute.
As soon as NRNB markets appear - there is a lot of opportunity for trying to work out different scenarios and how they play out.
I'm annoyed at Ricci's decision but had planned for it with cover doubles NRNB, including Kargess, C Hill, BDA, Jade etc.
Almost all my multiples are NRNB.
The number of multiples I see people do antepost just doesn't sit well with me.
I reckon it's tough to even get 5-10% still live come the day, and that doesn't account for having beat the price either.
A lot of spaff.
Yeah I try to keep antepost multiples very low in numbers and stakes, theres the odd one I have a go at but rarely ever goes well. Port joulain and good n kind from last year was one from memory that i did a couple reverse doubles with. Both debut in a traditionally hot race, pull well clear of the third, record good bumper rpr's, right connections etc. A year later one has been disappointing and one hasn't been seen. I'll still do a few but it's mainly just a bit of interest and the dream of a huge payout, but I realistically expect nothing at all from them and don't focus much on them at all.
Only a month ago you could have got a kopek, final demand and lossie nrnb treble at about 400/1 probably. It's really much better to put more work in at that point.
It's always Mullins, then jockey
The owner is on record as saying he pays them to make the decisions and do the right thing by the horse etc etc
One of those things we disagree on.
An owner like Ricci will always have final say, even if he often goes along with what they advise, and might be a touch gullible. It's his and his wife's horse.
And in this instance, despite what they eventually come out with, I'd be pretty sure Ricci has had final say on this call.
Owners on record saying Vautour goes to the Gold cup or nothing.
That decision was different also as I mentioned earlier, as he had Djakadam - and Ruby and Mullins in his ear saying he was outworking Vautour and was a cert for the Gold cup
I'd have loved to have seen the video of that, the acceleration Djakadam had was legendary
He's as much a gobshite as the rest of us, and prone to trotting out tired old tropes as well.
Only thing I remembered was ricci being disappointed after the Ryanair, which made me think it was mullins but going by this year I thought it could have been ricci back then too. Useful to know.
While the decision makes my stomach turn, it would be silly to not try and see the opportunity in this kind of nonsense.
For next years festival my ante post backing will be trimmed down considerably. I'll only be backing horses who I can genuinely envision having that superstar potential to go off as a very strong fave (no leau du sud/firefox/gerri colombe type ante post bets from this season for example). Along with horses who I'm convinced are hugely overpriced (lecky watson 100/1 and kawboomga 66/1 after a good second for example). I'll still back the leau du sud and firefox types for example in case it's a weak year, but not strongly, and with a view to laying stakes off very quickly after they make use of they're advantages (leau du sud big jumping experience, and firefox out early before mullins brigade to win weak races and get cut).
but I'll be saving the vast majority of my bank for nrnb and silly season the week before, as there's much more value on offer imo. Only a few days ago you could get lossie at 15s or so on the exchange, after comments from a dated mullins stable tour. Along with kopek and final demand at good prices nrnb when people were thinking different races for them. Also the handicap markets being left up the week before during scratchings. Loads of avenues to get value imo, much better than guessing ante post three months out.
As soon as NRNB markets appear - there is a lot of opportunity for trying to work out different scenarios and how they play out.
I'm annoyed at Ricci's decision but had planned for it with cover doubles NRNB, including Kargess, C Hill, BDA, Jade etc.
Almost all my multiples are NRNB.
The number of multiples I see people do antepost just doesn't sit well with me.
I reckon it's tough to even get 5-10% still live come the day, and that doesn't account for having beat the price either.
A lot of spaff.
Was Mullins and Walsh.
Walsh said he'd ride Djakadam in Gold cup so they persuaded Ricci to go Ryanair with Vautour.
Slightly different as Ricci had 2 with a decent shout.
They kind or used the recent workouts as the reasoning.
Sounds very much like the jockey has played a similar card, although this time Ricci probably had more choice.
Only thing I remembered was ricci being disappointed after the Ryanair, which made me think it was mullins but going by this year I thought it could have been ricci back then too. Useful to know.
While the decision makes my stomach turn, it would be silly to not try and see the opportunity in this kind of nonsense.
For next years festival my ante post backing will be trimmed down considerably. I'll only be backing horses who I can genuinely envision having that superstar potential to go off as a very strong fave (no leau du sud/firefox/gerri colombe type ante post bets from this season for example). Along with horses who I'm convinced are hugely overpriced (lecky watson 100/1 and kawboomga 66/1 after a good second for example). I'll still back the leau du sud and firefox types for example in case it's a weak year, but not strongly, and with a view to laying stakes off very quickly after they make use of they're advantages (leau du sud big jumping experience, and firefox out early before mullins brigade to win weak races and get cut).
but I'll be saving the vast majority of my bank for nrnb and silly season the week before, as there's much more value on offer imo. Only a few days ago you could get lossie at 15s or so on the exchange, after comments from a dated mullins stable tour. Along with kopek and final demand at good prices nrnb when people were thinking different races for them. Also the handicap markets being left up the week before during scratchings. Loads of avenues to get value imo, much better than guessing ante post three months out.
Just so I know for the future, who was the driving force behind the vautour switch to the Ryanair, mullins or ricci?
Wasn't doing antepost back then so didn't pay much attention to it. Useful to know for future festivals if it's 100% ricci who was the shithouse in both situations, or whether mullins was the one with vautour.
It's always Mullins, then jockey
The owner is on record as saying he pays them to make the decisions and do the right thing by the horse etc etc
Just so I know for the future, who was the driving force behind the vautour switch to the Ryanair, mullins or ricci?
Wasn't doing antepost back then so didn't pay much attention to it. Useful to know for future festivals if it's 100% ricci who was the shithouse in both situations, or whether mullins was the one with vautour.
Was Mullins and Walsh.
Walsh said he'd ride Djakadam in Gold cup so they persuaded Ricci to go Ryanair with Vautour.
Slightly different as Ricci had 2 with a decent shout.
They kind or used the recent workouts as the reasoning.
Sounds very much like the jockey has played a similar card, although this time Ricci probably had more choice.
Just so I know for the future, who was the driving force behind the vautour switch to the Ryanair, mullins or ricci?
Wasn't doing antepost back then so didn't pay much attention to it. Useful to know for future festivals if it's 100% ricci who was the shithouse in both situations, or whether mullins was the one with vautour.
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Book building also doesn't mean just backing every horse as soon as it appears in the market
token emoji so you know I'm not angry 
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