2025 Mares Hurdle

[Quevega]

Don't know about the timings, but if the speedometer is to be believed then these were my findings (I've taken the early speed, mid-race speed & finishing speed),:

Constitution Hill (Christmas Hurdle, Kempton (Good)) - 1-3f 32-34mph
Constitution Hill (Christmas Hurdle, Kempton) - 1m-1m2f 34-36mph
Constitution Hill (Christmas Hurdle, Kempton) - 1m5f-Finish 32-36mph

Brighterdaysahead (Neville Hotels Hurdle, Leopardstown (Good/Yielding)) - 1-3f 32-34mph
Brighterdaysahead (Neville Hotels Hurdle, Leopardstown) - 1m-1m2f 30-32mph
Brighterdaysahead (Neville Hotels Hurdle, Leopardstown) - 1m5f-Finish 30-32mph

Lossiemouth (Irish Champion Hurdle, Leopardstown (Soft)) - 1-3f 31-33mph
Lossiemouth (Irish Champion Hurdle, Leopardstown) - 1m-1m2f (Lossiemouth fell just before this point) 31-32mph


I'm not really sure what it tells us other than Constitution Hill can absolutely go the gallop and it wouldn't be outside of his comfort zone. Obviously Kempton is a very quick track anyway, not to mention the Good ground on the day, which is why Lossiemouth got outpaced early on, but she stayed well to the line, which is room for encouragement on a stiffer track like Cheltenham. There was little let up in the pace in the Christmas Hurdle either, unlike that in the Neville Hotels Hurdle where Brighterdaysahead managed to have a breather, back down to between 30-32mph mid-race, albeit that track is stiffer than Kempton too, so I wouldn't like to take direct comparisons between the tracks as gospel. Lossiemouth in the Irish Champion Hurdle on softer ground, they were going a fair gallop early on, accounting for ground conditions. Because we didn't get to see Lossiemouth finish off the race it is hard to tell whether she'd have made it home doing the same level of speed, but State Man certainly didn't look like he was going to be able to by the end of the race. We know Lossiemouth stays further so she may have had no issue, that we'll never know though.

I'd have stopped their Cod.
Hope you cut and pasted.

[FinalFurlong91]

Does God exist ?
There is no evidence to say he doesn't.

Then there must be a God.

I mean I prayed to him to let me win the euro millions lottery and didn't. I'd say that's proof.

[Rooster Booster]

Does God exist ?
There is no evidence to say he doesn't.

Then there must be a God.

Halefuckingluyah

[Quevega]

You haven’t responded directly to my point which is a little disappointing considering how frustrated you get when others do that to you.

This is what you said in your post.

So while it may appear to some Constitution Hill isn’t at his peak , to me he has not done anything to suggest otherwise and he’ll batter them all

The first half of your sentence implies heavily that you feel he is still at his peak (otherwise why distinguish yourself from the ‘some’ you mention) to which I comment he hasn’t shown any evidence of still being at that level for two years therefore it would require blind faith to assume he still is(that is the literal definition of blind faith) I.e. believing something to be true despite no evidence.

The second half of your sentence clearly implies that because he hasn’t definitively proven he is not at his peak then it should be assumed he is. This is why I said the absence of a negative does not prove a positive.

Rather than responding to these two points specifically you chose to respond by giving your reason why you think he will win. I never said he wouldn’t did I? I think he still deserves to be favourite but I think if BDA pitches up and replicates her most recent run he will need to be very close to his peak to beat her and we have had no evidence to say he is for two years. That is a fact. Assuming he is still at his peak is not a fact it’s a guess and a guess that is held as strongly as yours despite no concrete evidence is exactly what blind faith is.

Does God exist ?
There is no evidence to say he doesn't.

Then there must be a God.

[EnvoiAlien]

Isn't it Willie just trying to deflect the bottling...

Someone finally gets it.

[ComplyOrDie]

Have either travelled at that pace before in their races ? Were State Man and Lossiemouth travelling as quick last time ? Someone on here must have done the timings.

Don't know about the timings, but if the speedometer is to be believed then these were my findings (I've taken the early speed, mid-race speed & finishing speed),:

Constitution Hill (Christmas Hurdle, Kempton (Good)) - 1-3f 32-34mph
Constitution Hill (Christmas Hurdle, Kempton) - 1m-1m2f 34-36mph
Constitution Hill (Christmas Hurdle, Kempton) - 1m5f-Finish 32-36mph

Brighterdaysahead (Neville Hotels Hurdle, Leopardstown (Good/Yielding)) - 1-3f 32-34mph
Brighterdaysahead (Neville Hotels Hurdle, Leopardstown) - 1m-1m2f 30-32mph
Brighterdaysahead (Neville Hotels Hurdle, Leopardstown) - 1m5f-Finish 30-32mph

Lossiemouth (Irish Champion Hurdle, Leopardstown (Soft)) - 1-3f 31-33mph
Lossiemouth (Irish Champion Hurdle, Leopardstown) - 1m-1m2f (Lossiemouth fell just before this point) 31-32mph


I'm not really sure what it tells us other than Constitution Hill can absolutely go the gallop and it wouldn't be outside of his comfort zone. Obviously Kempton is a very quick track anyway, not to mention the Good ground on the day, which is why Lossiemouth got outpaced early on, but she stayed well to the line, which is room for encouragement on a stiffer track like Cheltenham. There was little let up in the pace in the Christmas Hurdle either, unlike that in the Neville Hotels Hurdle where Brighterdaysahead managed to have a breather, back down to between 30-32mph mid-race, albeit that track is stiffer than Kempton too, so I wouldn't like to take direct comparisons between the tracks as gospel. Lossiemouth in the Irish Champion Hurdle on softer ground, they were going a fair gallop early on, accounting for ground conditions. Because we didn't get to see Lossiemouth finish off the race it is hard to tell whether she'd have made it home doing the same level of speed, but State Man certainly didn't look like he was going to be able to by the end of the race. We know Lossiemouth stays further so she may have had no issue, that we'll never know though.

[Rooster Booster]

But he hasn't had to.
Whether he will need to reach his peak to win the champion hurdle depends on who turns up.
He's already beaten one of his main market rivals after a year off.
The only one who could actually trouble him on what we've seen from him in the last TWO years is BDA and she's got the option of the Mares.
Hardly blind faith is it

You haven’t responded directly to my point which is a little disappointing considering how frustrated you get when others do that to you.

This is what you said in your post.

So while it may appear to some Constitution Hill isn’t at his peak , to me he has not done anything to suggest otherwise and he’ll batter them all

The first half of your sentence implies heavily that you feel he is still at his peak (otherwise why distinguish yourself from the ‘some’ you mention) to which I comment he hasn’t shown any evidence of still being at that level for two years therefore it would require blind faith to assume he still is(that is the literal definition of blind faith) I.e. believing something to be true despite no evidence.

The second half of your sentence clearly implies that because he hasn’t definitively proven he is not at his peak then it should be assumed he is. This is why I said the absence of a negative does not prove a positive.

Rather than responding to these two points specifically you chose to respond by giving your reason why you think he will win. I never said he wouldn’t did I? I think he still deserves to be favourite but I think if BDA pitches up and replicates her most recent run he will need to be very close to his peak to beat her and we have had no evidence to say he is for two years. That is a fact. Assuming he is still at his peak is not a fact it’s a guess and a guess that is held as strongly as yours despite no concrete evidence is exactly what blind faith is.

[Quevega]

Have either travelled at that pace before in their races ? Were State Man and Lossiemouth travelling as quick last time ? Someone on here must have done the timings.

They were 21 lengths ahead of Kopek's race - when she fell. Something like that anyway.

But not quite as quick as BDA was - but the ground was much worse the other day.

So they were going quick enough, probably too quick.

[Carnage at Taunton]

If both KOK and BDA go off like scalded cats again in the Champion Hurdle, do we think that the other 'big 3' will all try and keep pace with them or run their own races in the hope she cant do a Leopardstown at Cheltenham?? If any of them try to go with her early doors then isn't that likely to be to the detriment of their chances ??

For me, that’s when we find out how CH is.
Nico will lay want to tuck in just off the pace and if CH is still as good or very near he will do that comfortably and take it up whenever he’s asked.
If he’s way off the pace then imo he’s not able to keep up and that’s a worry.
That’s obviously if the front two are in the same form as last time.

[Lobos]

I'd say big 2. Can't be having State Man based on what I've seen from him this season.

Lossiemouth got outpaced early on in the Christmas Hurdle but they were going a fair gallop at Leopardstown, so don't think she'd have an issue keeping up now. Constitution Hill can go the gallop, he won't be too far away, I wouldn't suspect. If anything the pace may see him to better effect.

BDA certainly a strong stayer over 2m though, should they go down that route with her.

Have either travelled at that pace before in their races ? Were State Man and Lossiemouth travelling as quick last time ? Someone on here must have done the timings.

[ComplyOrDie]

If both KOK and BDA go off like scalded cats again in the Champion Hurdle, do we think that the other 'big 3' will all try and keep pace with them or run their own races in the hope she cant do a Leopardstown at Cheltenham?? If any of them try to go with her early doors then isn't that likely to be to the detriment of their chances ??

I'd say big 2. Can't be having State Man based on what I've seen from him this season.

Lossiemouth got outpaced early on in the Christmas Hurdle but they were going a fair gallop at Leopardstown, so don't think she'd have an issue keeping up now. Constitution Hill can go the gallop, he won't be too far away, I wouldn't suspect. If anything the pace may see him to better effect.

BDA certainly a strong stayer over 2m though, should they go down that route with her.

[Lobos]

If both KOK and BDA go off like scalded cats again in the Champion Hurdle, do we think that the other 'big 3' will all try and keep pace with them or run their own races in the hope she cant do a Leopardstown at Cheltenham?? If any of them try to go with her early doors then isn't that likely to be to the detriment of their chances ??

[Lobos]

Although recently he has left the door open by saying if Rich wants to go that way they could.

Believe RR regretted not going CH a little last year so if she's A1 then I reckon he'll let her fly this time. That fall though is a big worry. Read yesterday that out of the last 250 runners or so that ran at the fez with an 'F' next to it's name on its last run, just 6 won. It's a massive negative for me and I'm one of her biggest fans and was desperate for her to run in the big one at the top of her game. It's not going to happen now imo.

[Quevega]

Final word, as it must be boring for many.
I can discuss all day on the workings etc, as you can tell.
And I know which ones are winding it up as well

Anyone who thinks that most owners do not have final word on what happens with their own property is daft. IMO.
I'm talking about proper owners here by the way and not syndicates and other methods of ownership where the terms are often different and the ownership more cloudy and complicated.

But Most fully fledged owners pay trainers for their experience, training expertise, knowledge and advice.
That's all.

Don't get me wrong, some will go into it with an open mind and will accept all advice without question. Ricci may well be one of those, most of the time.


Jackie used an analogy the other day about not telling a michelin starred chef how to cook.
Absolutely. agree.

But a really poor analogy.
Because like I said before, If you own the restaurant/horse and pay his wages, but value his skills as a chef/trainer.
You'd be mental to try and tell him how to cook/train your horse.

But just as fucking mental if you accept him telling you what to fucking eat, where to eat and what fucking time to eat. And paying him a fortune to do so.
While he fucks your wife.

I'll say no more.

[AaronLad]

He’s not even got close to his peak in TWO years….blind faith. The absence of a negative is not a positive.

But he hasn't had to.
Whether he will need to reach his peak to win the champion hurdle depends on who turns up.
He's already beaten one of his main market rivals after a year off.
The only one who could actually trouble him on what we've seen from him in the last TWO years is BDA and she's got the option of the Mares.
Hardly blind faith is it