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2025 Mares Chase

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  • Originally posted by SeanRock View Post

    What kind of form has Birdie Or Bust shown you this season to warrant talk of a Mares Chase challenge?
    Crap so far but Henry has been in proper shite form for ages now so not sure how we can guage it. He'll probably be flying at the Fez !

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    • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

      Crap so far but Henry has been in proper shite form for ages now so not sure how we can guage it. He'll probably be flying at the Fez !
      She was underperforming while Henry was flying. She doesn’t have the size or scope for fences. They probably should have kept her over hurdles in hindsight.

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      • Originally posted by SeanRock View Post

        She was underperforming while Henry was flying. She doesn’t have the size or scope for fences. They probably should have kept her over hurdles in hindsight.
        Has he ever been flying this season?? Don't think so. Numbers are awful.

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        • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

          Has he ever been flying this season?? Don't think so. Numbers are awful.
          He was smashing them in in November and early December. Darragh was riding out of his skin.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

            Has he ever been flying this season?? Don't think so. Numbers are awful.
            He was motoring well all the way up to Christmas but especially in October & November.

            His form has fallen off completely of late but that could be by design as you can’t keep the revs up all year round. Its not possible.

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            • Originally posted by Exar Essay View Post

              He was smashing them in in November and early December. Darragh was riding out of his skin.
              Was he? Can't remember that. Feels like he's been way out of form forever. It'll turn though.

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              • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

                Was he? Can't remember that. Feels like he's been way out of form forever. It'll turn though.
                Envoi Allen winning at Down Royal was definitely part of it

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                • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

                  Was he? Can't remember that. Feels like he's been way out of form forever.
                  Recency bias in full effect here Lobos I’d say. The yard & Darragh O’Keefe especially was firing them.

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                  • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

                    Was he? Can't remember that. Feels like he's been way out of form forever. It'll turn though.
                    I’ve not got the stats in respect of win percentages but at the end of November, Darragh was 4 or 5 clear in the jockey’s championship.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by SeanRock View Post

                      Recency bias in full effect here Lobos I’d say. The yard & Darragh O’Keefe especially was firing them.
                      Let's hope he can regain some form pretty sharp. Be a shame if he and Rach have a poor Fez.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                        More chance of out staying Dinoblue than she's getting credit for

                        Imo she's getting way too much credit.

                        She ran well today but I'm not sure where people are having her over Dinoblue who ran to an RPR of 157 only 2 runs ago, has placed in 2 festivals and will get the trip (as seen by her staying on last year). Plus Bioluimescence will only get 2lbs off Dinoblue compared to the 5lbs that Limerick Lace did last year.

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                        • Originally posted by luisgarciaisgod View Post


                          Imo she's getting way too much credit.

                          She ran well today but I'm not sure where people are having her over Dinoblue who ran to an RPR of 157 only 2 runs ago, has placed in 2 festivals and will get the trip (as seen by her staying on last year). Plus Bioluimescence will only get 2lbs off Dinoblue compared to the 5lbs that Limerick Lace did last year.

                          I think it's because she's not won in over a year, and the horses she's beaten are Gentleman De Mee and Fil Dor

                          She's quite clearly better over 2m and will fall short again this year



                          Interesting she's been a beaten fav three years in a row at the festival .... quite a rare achievement! Great quiz question

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by luisgarciaisgod View Post


                            Imo she's getting way too much credit.

                            She ran well today but I'm not sure where people are having her over Dinoblue who ran to an RPR of 157 only 2 runs ago, has placed in 2 festivals and will get the trip (as seen by her staying on last year). Plus Bioluimescence will only get 2lbs off Dinoblue compared to the 5lbs that Limerick Lace did last year.
                            I still stand by my feeling that Dinoblue didn't get home last year and won't any other year. She was ridden like a non stayer and was beaten by a stayer. On ratings she should have won but didn't. It won't be any different this year. Based on what she's showed so far she's actually on the decline as well which won't help.

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                            • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post


                              I think it's because she's not won in over a year, and the horses she's beaten are Gentleman De Mee and Fil Dor

                              She's quite clearly better over 2m and will fall short again this year



                              Interesting she's been a beaten fav three years in a row at the festival .... quite a rare achievement! Great quiz question
                              Don't forget that Dinoblue has also finished ahead of the reigning Champion Chaser this season, nice selective use of horses though .

                              Does finishing just ahead of Paggane and Good Land entitle such a short price? I don't see it tbh.

                              I agree that Dinoblue is better at 2m but she's still way too strong for this division and will prove it come March.


                              Last edited by luisgarciaisgod; 26 January 2025, 11:58 PM.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

                                I still stand by my feeling that Dinoblue didn't get home last year and won't any other year. She was ridden like a non stayer and was beaten by a stayer. On ratings she should have won but didn't. It won't be any different this year. Based on what she's showed so far she's actually on the decline as well which won't help.
                                It's a really odd take that she didn't get home last year. She was beaten half a length and was never nearer than at the line. Probably worth watching a replay...

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