November ‘24 Yankee

[ComplyOrDie]

Dancing City proved time and time again that he was the class staying hurdler of last year. Admittedly he was defeated at Cheltenham, but I'm astonished he's 10-1 given his record last year and who his trainer is. He's not jumped a fence in public yet, which is why you need the 10-1. He's the riskiest selection.

Agree with this.

The one place he failed to win was at Cheltenham. He finished a respectable 3rd, but was still behind The Jukebox Man & Stellar Story (I know he beat him at Punchestown, but reckon the course suited Dancing City more), the latter of which we've seen come out and win on chase debut and is still 20/1.

Now the season has started I don't think Dancing City is a great price @ 10/1 but the bookmakers won't push him out based on others winning around him, unfortunately.

Negatives for him:

No course win - Ballyburn, Majborough, Better Days Ahead & Stellar Story all tick this box

Wrong age - He'll be 8. I done a piece about 8 year olds in the race, it's not very favourable. Ballyburn, Better Days Ahead & The Jukebox Man all tick this box, among some others.


I got early season FOMO, when I started putting together my diary for the season ahead and backed him with free bets. I won't be parting with cash for him though.

[The Giant Bolster]

I still like Dancing City. I'm not too worried about the course form personally. I think Townend would probably want his ride in the Albert Bartlett again and to have pressed The Jukebox Man more. I think Dancing City would've liked a stronger pace (it was a fast finish) and didn't respond quickly enough when the pace lifted at the top of the hill.

Other than that blemish, he was a stand out staying hurdler. Alongside that I'm not sure we've seen many strong contenders in the staying novice chase division so far with Stellar Story and Better Days Ahead looking solid but not spectacular. Obviously it comes with risk at 10-1 and no evidence on his jumping but I'm definitely with him at the price personally.

[Exar Essay]

Agree with this.

The one place he failed to win was at Cheltenham. He finished a respectable 3rd, but was still behind The Jukebox Man & Stellar Story (I know he beat him at Punchestown, but reckon the course suited Dancing City more), the latter of which we've seen come out and win on chase debut and is still 20/1.

Now the season has started I don't think Dancing City is a great price @ 10/1 but the bookmakers won't push him out based on others winning around him, unfortunately.

A win is a win and a loss is a loss. But I thought the AB a very strange race last year. It didn't strike me that DC didn't like Cheltenham. Rather he, and many others, didn't give The Jukebox Man the respect he deserved. I'm prepared to give him a pass on course form. I'm also wondering how important the Cheltenham form stat will be now that there is no Dipper. I presume. though haven't done the research, that many BANC winners ticked that box in the Dipper.

Couldn't knock either SS or TJM either though. I have both in the book. Of the two, I actually prefer TJM. I don't think Stellar Story has the class for the BANC even. He looks a real grinder.

[ComplyOrDie]

A win is a win and a loss is a loss. But I thought the AB a very strange race last year. It didn't strike me that DC didn't like Cheltenham. Rather he, and many others, didn't give The Jukebox Man the respect he deserved. I'm prepared to give him a pass on course form. I'm also wondering how important the Cheltenham form stat will be now that there is no Dipper. I presume. though haven't done the research, that many BANC winners ticked that box in the Dipper.

Couldn't knock either SS or TJM either though. I have both in the book. Of the two, I actually prefer TJM. I don't think Stellar Story has the class for the BANC even. He looks a real grinder.

I'm with you on Stellar Story. Reminds me of Stay Away Fay, in fact they are both by the same sire too!

I really like Better Days Ahead. He won, what I believe to be, a decent enough renewal of the Martin Pipe, and although nothing spectacular on chase debut, he still beat the Supreme Novice Hurdle winner, in the process.

Gordon has never won the BANC though, so might as well chuck the tickets in the bin

Looks like Willie needs to send Ballyburn here instead!!

[JackieMoon33]

In years gone by, class was not always something you needed to win a BANC. This may change with the Turners being removed but since I've been watching racing, more grinders have won the race than classier types.

[Lobos]

The BANC has been lucky for the English in recent years...8 out of last 13......so it's not just the Irish raiders we have to watch out for. Same re the Albert.

[archie]

4/1 GDC no longer available?

[Irish Rugby]

4/1 GDC no longer available?

It seems so. Back to 7-2 where he mostly was Sunday morning. 14-1 bar.

That's some top heavy market, 4 months out. FtF now a general 11-4.

[YoungHustler]

A solid Willie win Yankee could be Gaelic Warrior, Champion Chase, El Fabiolo, Ryanair, and Galopin for the Gold Cup with one other?

Would absolutely agree with this. There's still a risk that ElFab still goes for the CC but Willie has been mentioning the Ryanair and how going slower over 2.5 miles will help his jumping. I know this means more fences but it could also mean jumping more fluently due to the slower pace, which will also allow him more time to recover if he does make a mistake. Everyone knew Sandown last season was never going to suit him and yet he still ran to an RPR of 169 which shows what a huge engine he has! There was always going to be a big mistake like the one he made in the CC but before then, despite not jumping fluently on occasions, he never looked like losing and easily coasts to wins earning +170 RPRs . He's still only 7 and I think will be in his prime come March. If he gets declared for the Horse & Jockey Chase at Thurles in Jan(same prep as Allaho before his 2 Ryanair wins), it will be a max bet on him for the Ryanair.

[Kautostar]

I wouldn’t take anything Willie says as gospel. Just read back his stable tour from last week and half of what he said has changed already.

[somer1]

BUMP........

Likes the thought of an all Mullins Yankee. Could turn out an Xmas gift.

[Eggs]

….i’ll make a case for Ballygunner Castle @ 25-1 for Turners.

Reading Saxon’s Race Planner, in the previous 2 years Mullins has run Ballyburn (won Gallagher) & Facile Vega (2nd Supreme) in the 2m race he won today. Believing the maxim that Trainers are creatures of habit, I’d assume Ballygunner Castle was high in Mullins novice hurdle pecking order.

In his stable tour he suggested BC is a very smart ‘staying novice’ and ahead of today he said he feared 2m at Fairyhouse was too sharp yet he still found a way to win. Afterwards Townend said;


“He had to overcome plenty from very early. He got a good bump at the start and I nearly fell off him at the first,” said Townend. “I had to ride him on then and I made him do plenty throughout the race. There were no hiding places and it was messy up the straight, but he still pulled out again. It’s the sign of a good one.

“He will relax better, I had him lit up to take on his hurdles early today because of what happened at the first. He’ll be fine, he’s learning on the job.

“The horse inside me wasn’t quick away from the last either, but still to do all that wrong and pull another bit was a fair performance.”

So, he didn’t have lots going for him today yet he still won. It wasn’t a wide margin victory which is why I think it’s going under the radar slightly. Worth mentioning Ballyburn finished 2nd in the race last season. Once I saw Saxon’s diary, I had a little of 50-1 win and Turners and highlighted in the novice thread before the race, he could be one to get onboard.

[Kautostar]

Any sign of MOM or are we cracking on?

[Odin]

I was glancing through the other yankees earlier and I think the delay potentially gives us the chance to fill a glaring omission from all bets so far: Salvator Mundi (Supreme)

There's a fair argument he comes with risks - namely that he seems to be susceptible to a setback and the form of a win in a maiden hurdle can easily be exaggerated. However, we all knew about him last year when many backed him for the Triumph and he was run in that with the obvious intention of keeping his novice status which they then quickly shed post-season before putting him away for the summer.

His form is 2l second to Sir Gino (rated 152 before winning the Fighting Fifth), and 3.25l behind Nurburgring in Triumph (now rated 150 after winning Galway Hurdle). His maiden win was given a speed rating 12lbs clear of anything that anyone else has achieved as a novice hurdler this year and he's the only horse I remember Willie namechecking for the Supreme Hurdle despite having a lot of possible candidates.

Four of the next eight in the market are Mullins horses who weren't namechecked for the Supreme (Redemption Day, Kopek Des Bordes, Irancy and Karniquet), implictly suggesting to me that Salvator is higher in the pecking order for this specific race. Jereboam Machin didn't get a mention in Emmet Mullins' stable tour, Romeo Coolio disappointed at the weekend (I'm willing to forgive but had Salvator above him before the race anyway), Bleu De Vassy clearly wasn't seen as better than Romeo Coolio for the Royal Bond (for all he didn't have chance to dissuade that thought like Croke Park did with Firefox) and The New Lion has won over 2.5miles now and is being aimed at the Challow. Looking further back you've got Jasmin De Vaux and Jalon Doudairies who have both been described as more stayers. Minella Premier who hasn't been seen (and has been described as a stayer). Karafon has been given a good mention but didn't get namechecked for the race and then you're at William Munny. I'd argue the race is suddenly looking very weak and Salvator could easily prove considerably better than all of them, potentially going off odds on on the day.

With that in mind, and some of the other discussion on here, my yankee would be:

Salvator Supreme (10/1)
Dancing City RSA (10/1)
Gaelic Champion Chase (4/1) - begrudgingly as I maintain my belief he should go Ryanair unless Fact To File goes there if Willie wants to win both races
Readers choice of Willy De Houelle (12/1) or Murcia (25/1) Triumph

[Eggs]

Any sign of MOM or are we cracking on?

….he’s posted a couple of times and said he’s back. Suggest we give him 24 hours?

I think MoM is more of a night owl, let’s hope everything is ok and he posts his selections tonight.