November ‘24 Yankee

[Eggs]

Fully with you on Slade Steel, Lobos. Very much one to get onside maybe using the twar angle?

….not sure we can get that in a Yankee, certainly not with Hills.

[Lobos]

….not sure we can get that in a Yankee, certainly not with Hills.

For me, there's only two race he's likely to run in anyway so easy to cover him for the Festival. If he runs in anything else then he's clearly under performed somewhere along the line in which case he wouldn't look as good a bet.

[Lobos]

You can use one Sky TWAR horse in a Yankee but no cash out options of course.

[Kautostar]

Sky aren’t an option for many of us these days so the Yankee needs to be available via as many bookies as possible

[Lbur4288]

….not sure we can get that in a Yankee, certainly not with Hills.

Quite right. Totally forgot the thread I am responding to. I would go with Arkle if pressed, for what it's worth.

[Eggs]

…busy few days of racing so worth giving this thread a bump for nominations.

[Exar Essay]

Id like to put up IEP for the Arkle. Willie has name checked the race. And I really don’t think last year’s 2m novice hurdlers are up to much. The lowest rated Supreme in the last 10 years by half a stone. The Ballymore, save Ballyburn, was no better either. And who knows what’s happening with Ballyburn. I’m not sure the 10/1 will last long.

On novice hurdle form he is 10lb better than anything else except Ballyburn. And his form last year was fine, without being quite as good as some hoped for.

[DenmanSacre]

BANC is wide open.

Over last 7 years, you're looking for:

• 7 year old - 13/14 of the top 2 that age. Odd one out was Fiddlerontheroof where the protagonists behind Monkfish were weak and the 2nd fav at 10/1 fell.
• 13/14 of top 2 hadn't raced in France - LHomme Presse the odd one out
• If ran in an Irish PTP, rated 91+ (Gerri was 90, Monalee 89 and Fiddlerontheroof 73 and all finished 2nd, Fact to File, Monkfish, Topofthegame won, Monty's Star and Minella Indo 2nd).
• If ran in a bumper, rated 119+
• Won a hurdle race over 2m7+, generally 150+ but lower recently

Qualifiers

Better Days Ahead - will be 7, 95 RPR, won over 2m7+, bumper 119, hurdle RPR 147 and Cheltenham winner.


I do think Better Days Ahead is a great bet at 25s. Cheltenham Festival form holds up so well in this race

Fact to File - 2nd in bumper before winning
Monkfish - AB to here
Champ - 2nd Ballymore to win this
Minella Indo - AB to 2nd here
Topofthegame - 2nd Coral Cup to win this
Santini - 3rd AB to 2nd this
Delta Work - Pertemps winner to 3rd in this (still think he'd have won with a better ride...)
Presenting Percy - Pertemps winner to this

His point win was impressive, was well thought of before his bumper season where it all seemed to go wrong but still beat Chapeau de Soleil and got a solid 119 rating, fell in his first hurdle race and made it easy to then go for the handicap route.

His hurdle campaign was actually pretty good though, the Martin Pipe was a strong renewal IMO and the top 4 are all good horses. 3rd at Punchestown after not too far behind Dancing City and High Class Hero, but I think he has so much scope going chasing to overtake them.

Still 20/1 around somehow but doubt it will still be there by the end of the month.

[Eggs]

….i think the reaction to push Birdie or Bust out to 25-1 for Mares Chase after her debut might be a bit of an over-reaction. I know some highlighted how tenderly she was ridden and stayed on, so I’d put her up. HdB said this in his stable tour;

“She's a good mare and we've always thought a fair bit of her. She was third in the mares' novice hurdle at Cheltenham last season and now goes chasing. We ran her in the good beginners' chase at Navan on Saturday as there aren't many mares races for her. She ran a lovely race and I was delighted with her. Darragh O'Keeffe said she jumped great and we'll find another beginners' for her.“

[Lobos]

Not sure she's yankee material yet for you guys but agree with how cleverly she was ridden eggs. Never put in the race when it mattered but ran on past a few when the race was over. The race is worth looking back on as I do believe the winner was given an easy time by the other JP runners .

[jrjr]

Birdie looked promising - but could mean JP has four fancied runners (of which she is likely to be the outsider). Not sure what to make of that..

[Irish Rugby]

Down Memory Lane was the most eye-catching for me over the weekend in Navan.

Elliott was non committal about future targets. Sounds like his performance surprised him. The stable's King of Kingsfield was backed against him and he drifted out to 7/1. Felt he was more of a dour galloper than a speedy type, so perhaps anther BANC potential.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Still 20/1 around somehow but doubt it will still be there by the end of the month.

Yep, another vote for BDA
Nice e/w price

[Istabraq]

Has to be a case for L’eau de Sud to be included in one of these, given RPR of 153 which would make him competitive at this stage, question marks about pretty much all those ahead of him.
Not sure if the 14s is still available but anything double digits could represent value….

Also, guaranteed not to run before selections are made so price will hold, not something that can be said about all those mentioned….

[Lobos]

Yep, another vote for BDA
Nice e/w price

Might be significant that PP are taking a stance on him and dangling those odds?