November ‘24 Yankee

[DenmanSacre]

BANC is wide open.

Over last 7 years, you're looking for:

• 7 year old - 13/14 of the top 2 that age. Odd one out was Fiddlerontheroof where the protagonists behind Monkfish were weak and the 2nd fav at 10/1 fell.
• 13/14 of top 2 hadn't raced in France - LHomme Presse the odd one out
• If ran in an Irish PTP, rated 91+ (Gerri was 90, Monalee 89 and Fiddlerontheroof 73 and all finished 2nd, Fact to File, Monkfish, Topofthegame won, Monty's Star and Minella Indo 2nd).
• If ran in a bumper, rated 119+
• Won a hurdle race over 2m7+, generally 150+ but lower recently

Qualifiers

Better Days Ahead - will be 7, 95 RPR, won over 2m7+, bumper 119, hurdle RPR 147 and Cheltenham winner.

Shannon Royale - will be 7, 91 RPR, won over 2m7, bumper 126, hurdle 143, no idea if it's a target, not mentioned in a stable tour

Shanagh Bob - will be 7, 94 RPR, won over 3m, no bumper, 133 hurdle rating (is low)

Kerryhill (think trainer said Cheltenham doesn't suit)

Loughglynn - will be 7, no PTP, won over 2m7 (grade 2 Limerick race at Xmas), 137 hurdle, 124 bumper, could Willy aim him at the NHC?

I do think Better Days Ahead is a great bet at 25s. Cheltenham Festival form holds up so well in this race

Fact to File - 2nd in bumper before winning
Monkfish - AB to here
Champ - 2nd Ballymore to win this
Minella Indo - AB to 2nd here
Topofthegame - 2nd Coral Cup to win this
Santini - 3rd AB to 2nd this
Delta Work - Pertemps winner to 3rd in this (still think he'd have won with a better ride...)
Presenting Percy - Pertemps winner to this

His point win was impressive, was well thought of before his bumper season where it all seemed to go wrong but still beat Chapeau de Soleil and got a solid 119 rating, fell in his first hurdle race and made it easy to then go for the handicap route.

His hurdle campaign was actually pretty good though, the Martin Pipe was a strong renewal IMO and the top 4 are all good horses. 3rd at Punchestown after not too far behind Dancing City and High Class Hero, but I think he has so much scope going chasing to overtake them.

[Lobos]

Nice stats Denman. I'd argue that Slade Steel should top your pile. Whilst he hasn't won over 2m 7+ he beat your number 1 pick into 4th at Navan staying on best of everything over 2m4f in very deep ground and his Hurdles RPR tops all those you say Qualify.

I've not mentioned him before for the BANC so I thought I'd bring it up now......

[DenmanSacre]

Nice stats Denman. I'd argue that Slade Steel should top your pile. Whilst he hasn't won over 2m 7+ he beat your number 1 pick into 4th at Naas staying on best of everything over 2m4f in very deep ground and his Hurdles RPR tops all those you say Qualify.

I've not mentioned him before for the BANC so I thought I'd bring it up now......

Lots qualify if you ignore the 2m7+ stat but only LHomme Presse won the BANC without winning over 2m7+ over hurdles and he's unusual for running in France.

The stats could all be blown apart with no Turners though. May push more of the Turners horses into the BANC but I think only GDC would have won the BANC from the Turners runners in that period (and he didn't win the Turners). He was too young for the stats above, races in France but did win over 3m so the stamina was assured.

[Lobos]

I do think the race SS won at Navan was the best 'staying' performance by any Novice Hurdler last season. He had both the Albert winner and Martin Pipe winner behind him that day and the conditions were atrocious. The horses you highlighted imo will fall short of top class this season over fences including BDA who I think may end up in the NHC if he goes to the Festival.

[DenmanSacre]

I do think the race SS won at Naas was the best 'staying' performance by any Novice Hurdler last season. He had both the Albert winner and Martin Pipe winner behind him that day and the conditions were atrocious. The horses you highlighted imo will fall short of top class this season over fences including BDA who I think may end up in the NHC if he goes to the Festival.

I think you need to rewatch the race. They dawdled round and he beat a bunch of stayers for pace.

[Lobos]

I think you need to rewatch the race. They dawdled round and he beat a bunch of stayers for pace.

Don't see it that way at all. All the races that day were way over standard such were the conditions. He outstayed a bunch of very good Stayers to my eye.

[Eggs]

….i was also going to put up Better Days Ahead DenmanSacre, so glad you made the case. I know MoM is keen on Dancing City.

I’ll suggest Stencil for the Triumph. Popular on here even before his recent win, I understand it’s a confirmed target and still available at 14-1.

[JackieMoon33]

I think you need to rewatch the race. They dawdled round and he beat a bunch of stayers for pace.

I'd agree with this. Stellar Story Race Comments: "Led at slow pace"

I'd also throw in that BDA and Stellar Story may already have had handicaps on their agenda so may not have been trying their hardest to win that day.

[ComplyOrDie]

Big fan of Better Days Ahead DenmanSacre mentioned him being a qualifier on age only, and been topping up on 25's for a little while now. Think he's a cracking E/W bet.

Connections were confident regarding the Pipe and I think the Pipe was a fairly solid race this season. Waterford Whispers was well touted for the race a long way out and he beat him going away giving him plenty of weight. Quai De Bourbon also followed up with a win next time out, albeit a far inferior race to the Pipe.

I know he was beat by Dancing City at Punchestown but that was his first try over 3m (at graded level) on a much flatter track. Dancing City was also a multiple G1 winner so it's not as if he lost a lot in defeat either. He still finished ahead of stable mate and Bartlett winner (who finished ahead of Dancing City), Stellar Story, and I agree about his scope as a chaser, compared with the likes of Dancing City.

[Fouroverthrutwo]

The Jukebox Man ticks a lot of the BANC trends boxes too. 25's available in places.

[BuckingThe Trend]

Golden Ace is screaming at me in the Mares Hurdle. Those ahead of her in the betting are :

1. Brighterdaysahead - beaten by Golden Ace in Mares Novices this year and potentially going to Champion Hurdle. How is she 2/1 and Golden Ace 8/1 (B365 prices).
2. Lossiemouth - primary target is Champion Hurdle.
3. Jade de Grugy - beaten by Golden Ace in Mares Novices this year and 50/50 could be switched to Mares Chase.

Add to this Golden Ace won over 2m4f at Cheltenham in April 2024 after the Festival beating amongst others Wyenot who won over 2m4f at the Cheltenham October meeting 10 days ago. I sense there is some trainer bias in the pricing as it stands. In my view based on what they've done on the track Golden Ace beats Brighterdaysahead and Jade de Grugy. I accept Lossiemouth wins this if she comes here but everything points to her going to Champion Hurdle. As it stands I think the biggest threat to Golden Ace is Dysart Enos who beat her by 9 lengths in the 2023 Aintree Bumper.

In summary, I nominate Golden Ace for inclusion in the November Yankee. I rest my case M'lud.

[Eggs]

….i thought Golden Ace might be included last month BuckingThe Trend, I’m sure we have her in one of the wagers but there’s a strong case for further inclusion.

[Eggs]

….Stable Tour quotes for;

Dancing City;
”We were a little disappointed with him coming out of a bumper at Punchestown a couple of seasons ago but he was beaten by Ballyburn and had Slade Steel behind him in third! And that was in the winners' bumper, not even in the big one! He made amends this year, winning three Grade 1s for us and I'd say he's going to be a better chaser than a hurdler. I'm really looking forward to him going for those top staying novice chases.”

Better Days Ahead;
“He won at the Cheltenham Festival and ran well at the Punchestown Festival after that last season. I’d imagine he’ll go novice chasing. His schooling over fences has been good. We’ll start him off over a mid-range distance in the next few weeks.“

[Lobos]

Cheers guys, appreciate all the support and love for Slade Steel

The one big nagging doubt re backing anything in the BANC is Ballyburn. If he goes chasing there still must be a big chance he steps up in trip. Willie has already name checked the Arkle for IEP and he's right up there on his hurdles rating. Will Willie throw two really big guns at that race? If he does step up then PT will surely ride so will anyone be happy with super sub Patrick riding Dancing City? Slade Steel will avoid Ballyburn at all cost again imo so he'd go Arkle. Would anyone fancy BDA against Ballyburn ? I know they say never be afraid of one horse but I am !! Big conundrums.

[Lbur4288]

Fully with you on Slade Steel, Lobos. Very much one to get onside maybe using the twar angle?