Lossie mouth. Champion hurdle or Mares ?

[BigL]

Where will she end up going and why.....

surely there will be a massive uproar from the media and public if she goes mares again ?

[TigerRolllllll]

I’m sure Willie will start with a plan for CH @ then see how season develops

For context…..Lossie ran to 156+7 in winning Mares, whilst State Man only ran to 160 winning CH

Losdie should improve as a 6 year old, whilst unlikely SM could improve

Lot might depend on Constitution Hill ….were he to come back at his best, Willie might do another year in Mares

I think most likely tho she will run in CH & very likely win

[TigerRolllllll]

I’m sure Willie will start with a plan for CH @ then see how season develops

For context…..Lossie ran to 156+7 in winning Mares, whilst State Man only ran to 160 winning CH

Losdie should improve as a 6 year old, whilst unlikely SM could improve

Lot might depend on Constitution Hill ….were he to come back at his best, Willie might do another year in Mares

I think most likely tho she will run in CH & very likely win

[TigerRolllllll]

Sorry for duplicates ….pls can someone remove ….must be connection issue here

[somer1]

Hey Boss ( Kevloaf ) Hows about a poll to start the season off on this thread and the Ballyburn thread where we think they will turn up in March?

[Lobos]

Lossiemouth will run in and win the CH.

She'll be 6 , you would think loads of improvement to come, had an easy time last season whilst being fully healthy and gets the ridiculous 7lbs allowance.

Constitution Hill will be 8, had an extremely interrupted season which couldn't have gone much worse health wise, won't have anyone decent to run against this side of the water and we may well see a further decline.

Queen Lossie.

[BigL]

Lossiemouth will run in and win the CH.

She'll be 6 , you would think loads of improvement to come, had an easy time last season whilst being fully healthy and gets the ridiculous 7lbs allowance.

Constitution Hill will be 8, had an extremely interrupted season which couldn't have gone much worse health wise, won't have anyone decent to run against this side of the water and we may well see a further decline.

Queen Lossie.

I tend to agree with this ...

[somer1]

Lossiemouth will run in and win the CH.

She'll be 6 , you would think loads of improvement to come, had an easy time last season whilst being fully healthy and gets the ridiculous 7lbs allowance.

Constitution Hill will be 8, had an extremely interrupted season which couldn't have gone much worse health wise, won't have anyone decent to run against this side of the water and we may well see a further decline.

Queen Lossie.

What me West Country Cousin was meant to say was "sweet cheery nipples" Lossie wins the CH doing handstands

[Lobos]

What me West Country Cousin was meant to say was "sweet cheery nipples" Lossie wins the CH doing handstands

Yes, that's what it translates too of course.

[DenmanSacre]

I think Lossiemouth will lose to State Man at the DRF, still take her chance in the CH and beat him. Still won't be enough though as Constitution Hill will canter over her.

Although State Man has won at Cheltenham twice, I don't think he's shown his best in the 3 runnings there and isn't as good as he is in Ireland. Lossiemouth's 3 runs at Cheltenham have arguably been her 3 best runs.

[charlie]

Lossiemouth will run in and win the CH.

She'll be 6 , you would think loads of improvement to come, had an easy time last season whilst being fully healthy and gets the ridiculous 7lbs allowance.

Constitution Hill will be 8, had an extremely interrupted season which couldn't have gone much worse health wise, won't have anyone decent to run against this side of the water and we may well see a further decline.

Queen Lossie.

Ratings wise what would you consider loads of improvement? Do you expect a similar ish level of improvement to Honeysuckle or do you think because she 6 there is more room for improvement?

Honeysuckle won the mares rated 158 (RPR 157) and won the CH rated 165. Lossiemouth won the mares rated 155 (RPR 156). Let's say, for argument sake, that Lossiemouth reaches a rating of 165 (same peak as Annie Power), even with the 7lbs allowance (which I agree is ridiculous), CH is rated 175 and there is no reason to think that at 7 going on 8 that he will be in decline. Coincidently the last two 8 year olds to win the CH in the last 10 years were Honeysuckle and Annie Power, which is kind of ironic given this conversation.

We shouldn't forget State Man either. He's rated 169 and has been thoroughly tested so we know exactly how good he is. Annie Power won the CH off a mark of 162 so if Lossiemouth reached that sort level then its no given she'd beat State Man, even with a 7lbs allowance.

I think that saying last season 'couldn't have gone much worse health wise' is OTT. CH had 3 unusual blood markers and it sounded more precautionary from Nicky. He pulled loads from the festival and it could have just been a bug in the yard which is not serious long term, which makes pre-empting 'decline' extremely premature IMO. The fact other horses of his who missed Cheltenham won at other festivals adds to that theory being correct.

I think it will be entirely dependent on what she shows they on the track but a decision will not be made until the week before.

Gut says she'll come up just short in open company. Punters will want them to have a crack at the CH but they'll bottle it and go mares where she'll win at 1/4 and it will be like Vautour 2.0 re going Ryanair and not Gold Cup.

[Lobos]

Lossiemouth should be unbeaten and may well end up the best Mare Willie has ever trained IMO. No idea what her ceiling could be as she's done it all so easily so far. I'm pretty sure Nicky was on record as saying the infection CH had was different to his other horses and he did require antibiotics to get over it so it certainly wasn't precautionary. Then he had the separate suspected Colic scare which the yard were very concerned about so he definitely was a sick horse. I'm not sure at 8 we can expect him to hit the heights of 2023 . The 'Wow' factor for me has been missing for his last two wins so it wouldn't take too much more of a dip for Lossiemouth to bridge that gap. I also feel that the lack of competition for CH leading up to the Festival compared to that which Lossiemouth will encounter may also work in the Mares favour. Without doubt all eyes will be watching the return of CH to see if the torrid time he had last season will have any lasting effect or not.

Edit....

This was the comment I have alluded to...

Echoing those sentiments, Buckley, a close and longtime friend of Henderson, said: “He’s had a very tough few weeks, first with that bad infection, which I think was different from what Nicky’s other horses had, and something was clearly awry with this on top of it.
“When you’re on a lot of antibiotics to fight that infection, you’re probably not best-placed to deal with this, but hopefully we don’t have a recurrence and he can put himself back together over the summer.

[charlie]

Lossiemouth should be unbeaten and may well end up the best Mare Willie has ever trained IMO. No idea what her ceiling could be as she's done it all so easily so far. I'm pretty sure Nicky was on record as saying the infection CH had was different to his other horses and he did require antibiotics to get over it so it certainly wasn't precautionary. Then he had the separate suspected Colic scare which the yard were very concerned about so he definitely was a sick horse. I'm not sure at 8 we can expect him to hit the heights of 2023 . The 'Wow' factor for me has been missing for his last two wins so it wouldn't take too much more of a dip for Lossiemouth to bridge that gap. I also feel that the lack of competition for CH leading up to the Festival compared to that which Lossiemouth will encounter may also work in the Mares favour. Without doubt all eyes will be watching the return of CH to see if the torrid time he had last season will have any lasting effect or not.

Edit....

This was the comment I have alluded to...

Echoing those sentiments, Buckley, a close and longtime friend of Henderson, said: “He’s had a very tough few weeks, first with that bad infection, which I think was different from what Nicky’s other horses had, and something was clearly awry with this on top of it.
“When you’re on a lot of antibiotics to fight that infection, you’re probably not best-placed to deal with this, but hopefully we don’t have a recurrence and he can put himself back together over the summer.

As far as responses go Lobos that was a bloody good one!!

I wish you'd said all that in your OP - think we need a fish hook emoji

[Lobos]

As far as responses go Lobos that was a bloody good one!!

I wish you'd said all that in your OP - think we need a fish hook emoji

You know me......I take a while to get my point across which is why I'm fast approaching 23000 posts !

Once I fall in love with a good Mare I can't let go. She excites me every bit as much as Honeysuckle did and maybe a bit more. Can't wait until we see her again.

[charlie]

You know me......I take a while to get my point across which is why I'm fast approaching 23000 posts !

Once I fall in love with a good Mare I can't let go. She excites me every bit as much as Honeysuckle did and maybe a bit more. Can't wait until we see her again.

I know pal! Honeysuckle flash backs

if she ends up in the CH, would you prefer an Annie Power esque prep similar to Lossies prep last year (I.e, one run and no deep water kept fresh) or would you rather see Willie throw her in against State Man to show us the fibre of her fabric?