Lossie mouth. Champion hurdle or Mares ?

[BigL]

You know me......I take a while to get my point across which is why I'm fast approaching 23000 posts !

Once I fall in love with a good Mare I can't let go. She excites me every bit as much as Honeysuckle did and maybe a bit more. Can't wait until we see her again.

Have you placed ya hard earned cash on Lossie ?

[Spectre]

Fwiw I had Lossie's performance lower than the official one at Cheltenham. But just like State Man she could only beat what was in front of her.

Taking her RPR as published at 156, and comparing that to the 170 level we know State Man performs to every time he has to, then she has 8lbs of improvement to find to beat him. As a 6 year old that's entirely possible, but less certain than a typical UK or Irish NH bred type.

She's been on the go since she was a 3 year old, as has State Man, and there are comparisons to take from there, in that State Man hasn't really improved his RPR since hie hit 5. And that's logical. Lossie is now a 3rd season hurdler., an dis she really going to make another significant step forward. You usually see a horses abiity and can get a handle of it in their second season over hurdles or fences.

Honeysuckle has been mentioned here, and whilst she showed a little more improvement at the same racing stage of her career, she only topped her Hattons Grace run which was only her second run in open company by 5lbs at her very best. By comparison Lossie's best is still 5lbs behind that.

Essentially Lossie needs to improve by more than would be usual between a 2nd and 3rd season hurdling to be able to topple State Man. Either that or State Man needs to regress. The reality of that though is he's actually coming into his prime now, and there's been no sign of that whatsoever.

Then we have Constitution Hill. Nothing that has held him up is physical. Not pleasant of course, but nothing that would have any lasting effect on his ability. He also is coming up to his physical prime. For context his best RPR's (over course and distance), are 21lbs ahead of anything Lossie has done (not over course and distance), so he can be a stone off his best and still win with something in hand. And before someone throws out that Lossie is less exposed, Constitution Hill has actually had less runs than she has!

Sure we need to see him back and firing, but all the reports are very positive, and as I said he hasn't had anything that would affect his basic ability. I know people like to fall in love with mares, but I prefer to fall in love with returns, and Constitution Hill will be the reason that Lossie is money down the drain. She won't beat him because he's a class above, and as a consequence I suspect they'll go to the Mares as the only race they can win.

[Quevega]

The thing with Lossiemouth IMO is people talk about her having to improve, and on paper with the ratings folk then she clearly does.
But ratings are often a judgement of performance against opposition on any given day, with timings and visuals taken into account.

Are they accurate enough to show her true ability though ?
Especially when a horse does it so easily and wins with one ask ?

I personally don't think she has to improve to beat State Man at all.
Because I think her performances last season were clearly easy enough, not once was there any doubt she was the winner of all her races and she barely tested herself.
That's my opinion though from what I saw (and might be wrong), and I have not backed her for anything, but will back her when she runs against any serious opposition this year as long as the price is right.

From what most people on here are saying I'd expect her to be 2nd favourite to State Man if they meet, in which case I'll certainly be interested.
However, I have a feeling that the oddsmakers might have her favourite, and in that case I'll be looking at the price's for both.

[Lobos]

Have you placed ya hard earned cash on Lossie ?

Win Mares/Win CH and a lovely lucky roll up means over 100pt potential win. Very small stakes so in a good position with her.

[Lobos]

CH had a very unpleasant lung infection. Whilst that may not be a physical injury it can have a lasting effect if not treated quickly and correctly. He also then had a secondary issue thought initially to be colic which knocked him back again. Hendon has issued a positive report but he was also bullish before his disastrous racecourse gallop last season. Horses like all other animals have a natural instinct to disguise any issues in order to not appear vulnerable. Until we see CH on a racecourse again I'll reserve judgement as to what sort of form he is in and whether last seasons issues have had a lasting effect. Hopefully he'll return at his very best and back to the 'wow' factor of 23.

[Wayward Lad]

Has anyone considered that Lossiemouth may end up in the Stayers Hurdle ?

If she fails to compete with the top 2m hurdlers before the festival then most on the Forum think she will end up back in the Mares hurdle.

Case for thinking that she could run in the Stayers instead, if the 2m hurdle campaign falters - think Annie Power (same connections), on purely ratings she would have a better chance against Teahupoo than State Man and Constitution Hill - £182k first prize in the Stayers verses £67k Mares - she has won the Triumph over 2m 1f and Mares over 2 1/2 miles (readily) so is well positioned to try 3m - Teahupoo first ran in the Stayers Hurdle at 6 years old, the same age Lossiemouth will be next year

May even win the Stayers Hurdle this year and then go for the Champ Hurdle next year being a year older and stronger when State Man and Constitution Hill may be vulnerable ?

[charlie]

Has anyone considered that Lossiemouth may end up in the Stayers Hurdle ?

If she fails to compete with the top 2m hurdlers before the festival then most on the Forum think she will end up back in the Mares hurdle.

Case for thinking that she could run in the Stayers instead, if the 2m hurdle campaign falters - think Annie Power (same connections), on purely ratings she would have a better chance against Teahupoo than State Man and Constitution Hill - £182k first prize in the Stayers verses £67k Mares - she has won the Triumph over 2m 1f and Mares over 2 1/2 miles (readily) so is well positioned to try 3m - Teahupoo first ran in the Stayers Hurdle at 6 years old, the same age Lossiemouth will be next year

May even win the Stayers Hurdle this year and then go for the Champ Hurdle next year being a year older and stronger when State Man and Constitution Hill may be vulnerable ?

I've got a feeling you are going to get some pelters for this for all I think thinking outside the box this time of year is a good idea. Lobos will come out swinging!

But in short, next to no chance. If she fails to cut the mustard over 2m vs the boys then I would be 99% sure they would go to and win the mares hurdle.

It's the easiest option and if you ask any owner/trainer the vast majority will tell you that one on the board at Cheltenham is more important than prize money.

I can see the scenario you list potentially playing out in reverse. If they stick to 2m and go CH and she falls short then perhaps the stayers would end up her bag in time but not next year.

[JackieMoon33]

Has anyone considered that Lossiemouth may end up in the Stayers Hurdle ?

If she fails to compete with the top 2m hurdlers before the festival then most on the Forum think she will end up back in the Mares hurdle.

Case for thinking that she could run in the Stayers instead, if the 2m hurdle campaign falters - think Annie Power (same connections), on purely ratings she would have a better chance against Teahupoo than State Man and Constitution Hill - £182k first prize in the Stayers verses £67k Mares - she has won the Triumph over 2m 1f and Mares over 2 1/2 miles (readily) so is well positioned to try 3m - Teahupoo first ran in the Stayers Hurdle at 6 years old, the same age Lossiemouth will be next year

May even win the Stayers Hurdle this year and then go for the Champ Hurdle next year being a year older and stronger when State Man and Constitution Hill may be vulnerable ?

I'd consider giving up the game if that happens. It's the Champion or Mares Hurdle and I doubt prize money will be a factor in that decision.

[Wayward Lad]

Thanks for the heads up Charlie, I’ve got my tin hat on ready !

You could well be right, particularly as I agree that the top owners do want winners rather than prize money at Cheltenham.

However my thinking was that Annie Power went Stayers, Mares then Champ hurdle at Cheltenham, so that’s why I was thinking it may not be automatically back to the Mares if she didn’t hack it at 2m against State Man and Constitution Hill etc. Also Willie has a strong alternative candidate for the Mares in Kargese.

[Quevega]

Thanks for the heads up Charlie, I’ve got my tin hat on ready !

You could well be right, particularly as I agree that the top owners do want winners rather than prize money at Cheltenham.

However my thinking was that Annie Power went Stayers, Mares then Champ hurdle at Cheltenham, so that’s why I was thinking it may not be automatically back to the Mares if she didn’t hack it at 2m against State Man and Constitution Hill etc. Also Willie has a strong alternative candidate for the Mares in Kargese.

Your best hope is she batters teahupoo in the hattons grace.
And then gets beat at 2 miles once or twice

But not likely really

[Lobos]

I'd consider giving up the game if that happens. It's the Champion or Mares Hurdle and I doubt prize money will be a factor in that decision.

I'd consider giving up the game if she went Mares Hurdle

[Istabraq]

The Stayers has become such a bad race in recent seasons I think it's probably only ever going to be an afterthought for whoever wins it.
Horrible race to bet on ante post and if Lossiemouth ends up there I'd imagine so much will have gone wrong for her this Winter...

[Lobos]

The Stayers has become such a bad race in recent seasons I think it's probably only ever going to be an afterthought for whoever wins it.
Horrible race to bet on ante post and if Lossiemouth ends up there I'd imagine so much will have gone wrong for her this Winter...

Yep, spot on. If she goes Stayers then she'd have had a season like Gala Marceau did.

I'm hoping she starts out in the Hattons Grace because I reckon she'd turn Teahupoo upside down and he'd then become a more backable proposition in the Stayers. Not sure she'd be ready that early though.

[archie]

Annie Power went Stayers because they had Quevega going for the 6 timer in the Mares.

[Lobos]

Annie Power went Stayers because they had Quevega going for the 6 timer in the Mares.

Very good point Arch. Sadly she didn't quite see out the trip.