October ‘24 ‘Roger Diamond Geezer Hunter’ Yankee

[Quevega]

I couldn't disagree the ones in behind aren't what you say they are, but Id still say her 3rd place is better form than that of any of the other mares, bar Lossiemouth.
Would you consider brighterdaysahead beating Staffordshire knot at Aintree better form?

No, obviously not.
Just a question of opportunity though really.
I'd be of the mindset that there looks to be sufficient potential amongst the novices from last year to come on again this season and likely prove better than Luccia by March.
Not a massive fan of Brighterdaysahead's price at all (muggy is the word)
But she is clearly regarded highly by Elliott and he knows his stuff.
Then we have Mullins mares - we'll wait and see what he says about them later in the week, as the vibes on the exchange for Kargese and Jade don't look great. (Could easily be simply lack of interest/liquidity at this stage of season though)
If either/or both are not heading here for whatever reason then maybe taking Luccia price on that news would be smarter.

I like Kargese myself. But cashed the 16's I had straight after the festival (but forgot why I cashed now )
So I've backed again on betfair as someone matched me at 22-25/1.

edit - the 2 uk based second season mares also look decent.

[Istabraq]

It wasn't a vintage renewal, that's for sure.
But I'd say she finished close enough to a couple of fairly decent horses in irish point and state man.
She also had a few rated in to the 150's pretty soundly beaten that day.
Lossiemouth aside, which mare could've bettered her result in the champion hurdle?
There's novices coming through with potential, but weve seen many times before that potential hasnt quite been fulfilled in open company.
I look at the odds for last years novices and then luccia and i think the value lies with luccia.

The big 'possible' for me comes from the fact Hendo's were in horrific form at the time (yard illness) so if Luccia has put in a run like that when not 100% then she is absolutely value for the Mares hurdle, I'm just not sure the race can be taken at face value.
As Quevega has pointed out no pace and deep ground may have affected the proximity of Luccia, as for those behind they aren't a great bunch, they probably under performed too but none are decent graded horses for me...

[Quevega]

The big 'possible' for me comes from the fact Hendo's were in horrific form at the time (yard illness) so if Luccia has put in a run like that when not 100% then she is absolutely value for the Mares hurdle, I'm just not sure the race can be taken at face value.
As Quevega has pointed out no pace and deep ground may have affected the proximity of Luccia, as for those behind they aren't a great bunch, they probably under performed too but none are decent graded horses for me...

I would 100% not uptick Luccia's run based on the other Henderson runners being pulled up by Nico. IMO of course.
They were running badly because his bottom lip was getting in their way.

[Istabraq]

I would 100% not uptick Luccia's run based on the other Henderson runners being pulled up by Nico. IMO of course.
They were running badly because his bottom lip was getting in their way.

Was it not confirmed there was a water infection that infected the entire yard ?
I know I was told that, not sure if it was shared publically...

[Quevega]

Was it not confirmed there was a water infection that infected the entire yard ?
I know I was told that, not sure if it was shared publically...

Nicky should wash his hands before touching them all then

Enough if his horses ran well in my opinion.
Unless Nico was riding.
I think his head had gone.

Luccia
Bold endeavour 4th pertemps at 50-1
Lucky Place 4th coral cup at 25-1

All outran their odds by a decent margin.
He pulled most of his better chances anyway, but the rest were pulled by Nico having ridden them like they were odds on chances. When they weren't.

[AaronLad]

No, obviously not.
Just a question of opportunity though really.
I'd be of the mindset that there looks to be sufficient potential amongst the novices from last year to come on again this season and likely prove better than Luccia by March.
Not a massive fan of Brighterdaysahead's price at all (muggy is the word)
But she is clearly regarded highly by Elliott and he knows his stuff.
Then we have Mullins mares - we'll wait and see what he says about them later in the week, as the vibes on the exchange for Kargese and Jade don't look great. (Could easily be simply lack of interest/liquidity at this stage of season though)
If either/or both are not heading here for whatever reason then maybe taking Luccia price on that news would be smarter.

I like Kargese myself. But cashed the 16's I had straight after the festival (but forgot why I cashed now )
So I've backed again on betfair as someone matched me at 22-25/1.

edit - the 2 uk based second season mares also look decent.

I like Golden Ace too but at double the odds I'd prefer to back luccia, I think golden ace won the Mares novice hurdle pretty well and atm have no reason to believe the others would reverse the form with her.

Kargese could potentially be quite smart her efforts at Cheltenham and Aintree look very good, but 4 turning 5 is always a tricky season, yes Lossiemouth managed it last season but she's special isn't she?

Luccia has at times looked quite good herself, shes only 6, her 2 runs at the end of last season were on ground that wouldnt be her favourite, she's unexposed over the Mares hurdle trip, yeah I really quite like her chances

[Carnage at Taunton]

Evening all, hope you've all been well.
Haven't done this for a while so apologies if I'm a little rusty.
I think that luccia is overpriced for the Mares hurdle, if Lossiemouth goes champion hurdle, luccia is the mare to beat, right?
3rd in last seasons champion hurdle is a better piece of form than any of the other mares have to offer, I'd argue its better form than anything Lossiemouth has done but the eye is certainly taken out by the way that one has performed to date.
Her only try at 2 1/2 miles came in the open grade 1 at Aintree, in what I think was a fairly decent renewal.
Her 4th that day, 7 and a bit lengths off the front 3 was her running to her rating, and she was slightly inconvenienced having to be taken wide just as they got properly racing, probably cost her a couple of lengths.
I don't think that performance should be viewed as her not getting the trip, I just think she was beaten by the better geldings, I hope Henderson thinks the same.
Luccia is still only 6, there is a chance she could get better, even though i dont think she necessarily has to.
I think the 20/1 that's available is pretty fair all things considered, but with a good run at the weekend that would soon disappear.

Must admit I had not even thought of Luccia.
You make a good case and talked me into a small wager, yep 20’s is fair value looking at her form imo.
If looking at an e/w Yankee at this stage she’s certainly a possibility imo.
Dont think the extra distance will bother her, all in all it’s a fair shout.

[Exar Essay]

Must admit I had not even thought of Luccia.
You make a good case and talked me into a small wager, yep 20’s is fair value looking at her form imo.
If looking at an e/w Yankee at this stage she’s certainly a possibility imo.
Dont think the extra distance will bother her, all in all it’s a fair shout.

Nicky disagrees with you. He has said she will stick to the 2-mile route and did not stay the 2 1/2 in the Aintree Hurdle. I’d not be parting with cash for her unless there was evidence to suggest Nicky has changed his mind.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Nicky disagrees with you. He has said she will stick to the 2-mile route and did not stay the 2 1/2 in the Aintree Hurdle. I’d not be parting with cash for her unless there was evidence to suggest Nicky has changed his mind.

Cheers EE, had not seen that quote.
Bit surprised to be honest.

[Carnage at Taunton]

That’s poor from me.
I have his stable tour saved, and have read it.
Just looked again, you are dead right EE.
Obviously I did not take the Luccia quotes in as I should have.
Thanks again.

[Istabraq]

That’s poor from me.
I have his stable tour saved, and have read it.
Just looked again, you are dead right EE.
Obviously I did not take the Luccia quotes in as I should have.
Thanks again.

I think we can be forgiven for disregarding comments from Hendo, I thought the FJ default position was to ignore everything he says....

[Yosser]

I think we can be forgiven for disregarding comments from Hendo, I thought the FJ default position was to ignore everything he says....

I would agree with that with one exception. I am hanging on to every word he says about Constitution Hill

[AaronLad]

Nicky disagrees with you. He has said she will stick to the 2-mile route and did not stay the 2 1/2 in the Aintree Hurdle. I’d not be parting with cash for her unless there was evidence to suggest Nicky has changed his mind.

I get why you'd not want to get involved with her after he says something like that, but he did also say..

but it was hard to judge when some of the horses still weren’t doing exactly what you expected.

So I wouldn't say he is was 100% convinced.

He also said .. this will almost certainly be her last season.

Now I couldn't imagine he'd run her against constitution hill at Cheltenham and also potentially sir gino , which will leave her only one option to gain what would be an invaluable grade 1 win for a career as a broodmare, and with her Cheltenham form I find it incomprehensible he doesn't run her there.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I think we can be forgiven for disregarding comments from Hendo, I thought the FJ default position was to ignore everything he says....

Hahaha
Well with most trainers, I tend to try and sort the genuine from the not genuine
I think he’s genuine on this one
As has been said, he could change his mind though, certainly happened before.

[Lobos]

Nicky disagrees with you. He has said she will stick to the 2-mile route and did not stay the 2 1/2 in the Aintree Hurdle. I’d not be parting with cash for her unless there was evidence to suggest Nicky has changed his mind.

Yep, she'll not be winning at the Fez. Need to move on.