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and also it's not impossible for anything to run well on the day .... Lisnager Oscar kind of thing
Sore Du Berlais 100s in the morning as well I think when he won it. Can be a funny race like the QMCC where form goes out the window on the day, or the good thing wins easy.
Did you know inglis drever before becoming a 3 time stayer hurdle winner, ran at the festival in the royal and sun alliance novice hurdle (now turners) and lost.
Did you also know before becoming a 4 time stayers hurdle winner big bucks lost in the 2m4f novice handicap chase, I know it wasn't a hurdle race but...
And also did you know before winning 2 stayers hurdles flooring porter was beaten in handicap hurdles off marks as low as 118
Do you know what else these all had in common, apart from being multiple stayers hurdle winners?
They were all 6 years old when they won there first.
Same age as, yeah u know who.
Out of interest aaron, what makes you so sure he will stay the trip in the Stayers? Whilst I do like the horse and he's clearly improving,10/1 looks a pretty poor price to me when you consider he's never even ran over the trip, never mind proven he can stay it!
Out of interest aaron, what makes you so sure he will stay the trip in the Stayers? Whilst I do like the horse and he's clearly improving,10/1 looks a pretty poor price to me when you consider he's never even ran over the trip, never mind proven he can stay it!
His relaxed racing style, the way he runs through the line in all his races its all characteristics I'd look for in a stayers hurdle contender.
He also has some half siblings which give encouragement.
But ive seen enough of him to know he'll stay.
Id be confident that nicky Henderson to be going straight there that they are confident, which is a good sign.
I also think the way the race could be run this year will really suit him, but that will be clearer festival week.
It wouldnt be a new thing for a stayers hurdle winner to be going over 3 miles for the first time. Inglis drever, more of that just 2 i can think of off the top of my head, so that doesnt concern me either.
I'm not suggesting him as a bet @10/1. (I suggested him at 33's)
When posts are made suggesting this race is a foregone conclusion, im simply giving my opinion and the horse i actually believe will win
His relaxed racing style, the way he runs through the line in all his races its all characteristics I'd look for in a stayers hurdle contender.
He also has some half siblings which give encouragement.
But ive seen enough of him to know he'll stay.
Id be confident that nicky Henderson to be going straight there that they are confident, which is a good sign.
I also think the way the race could be run this year will really suit him, but that will be clearer festival week.
It wouldnt be a new thing for a stayers hurdle winner to be going over 3 miles for the first time. Inglis drever, more of that just 2 i can think of off the top of my head, so that doesnt concern me either.
I'm not suggesting him as a bet @10/1. (I suggested him at 33's)
When posts are made suggesting this race is a foregone conclusion, im simply giving my opinion and the horse i actually believe will win
Yeah fair enough. Im annoyed as I backed him at Ascot and actually toyed with backing him at 33/1 at the same time but left him alone. It was actually his breeding that put me off. Couldn't find anything to suggest he wanted the extra. But good luck! 33's clearly a great bet.
….i’ve had a little interest in Franciscan Rock. The 50-1 NRNB with Hills is a bit of a stand-out, only 25-1 365.
Admittedly a bit of a cliff horse, ran well behind Langer Dan in last years Coral. I had him for the Pertemps after winning the Punchestown qualifier but his subsequent win since (ahead of Sandor) and recent close up 3rd in the Galmoy to Rocky’s Diamond has pushed his mark up considerably suggesting another Festival handicap was never the plan.
Sore Du Berlais 100s in the morning as well I think when he won it. Can be a funny race like the QMCC where form goes out the window on the day, or the good thing wins easy.
….i’ve had a little interest in Franciscan Rock. The 50-1 NRNB with Hills is a bit of a stand-out, only 25-1 365.
Admittedly a bit of a cliff horse, ran well behind Langer Dan in last years Coral. I had him for the Pertemps after winning the Punchestown qualifier but his subsequent win since (ahead of Sandor) and recent close up 3rd in the Galmoy to Rocky’s Diamond has pushed his mark up considerably suggesting another Festival handicap was never the plan.
I really like FR for the Pertemps, but as you say it seems he's possibly blown his mark - for all the right reasons to be fair.
Ive a couple of shekels at triple figures on the exchange to make up for it
Doubt it.
I think the low mark will reduce a fair bit.
The first 4 qualify and some of the ratings of qualifiers are low, and the new novices 5 runs rule should mean most that want to run will get in.
Whatsavailable is rated 122 in IRE, and with a bit of UK tax should get in. IMO - but i'd go NRNB if he runs and is mid pack this weekend.
I've not backed yet as I'm going to watch this weekend, and then have a think.
There's a fair chance that 4 or 5 of the top rated ones take their chance in the stayers. But they could also all turn up.
He often leads but when he qualified he was held up just off the pace, the race he qualified in looks decent I reckon.
He was well beat by Franciscan but that was 12 days after a good win. probably excusable and he may have set too strong a pace.
Doubt it.
I think the low mark will reduce a fair bit.
The first 4 qualify and some of the ratings of qualifiers are low, and the new novices 5 runs rule should mean most that want to run will get in.
Whatsavailable is rated 122 in IRE, and with a bit of UK tax should get in. IMO - but i'd go NRNB if he runs and is mid pack this weekend.
I've not backed yet as I'm going to watch this weekend, and then have a think.
There's a fair chance that 4 or 5 of the top rated ones take their chance in the stayers. But they could also all turn up.
He often leads but when he qualified he was held up just off the pace, the race he qualified in looks decent I reckon.
He was well beat by Franciscan but that was 12 days after a good win. probably excusable and he may have set too strong a pace.
He qualified in his last race, which I believe from Saxs stats, is THE key best race trend for the Pertemps
He qualified in his last race, which I believe from Saxs stats, is THE key best race trend for the Pertemps
Yep, I know.
The first part of what I said is regarding the lower amount of qualifiers overall these days - and his chances of getting in the declarations. If entered.
Yep, I know.
The first part of what I said is regarding the lower amount of qualifiers overall these days - and his chances of getting in the declarations. If entered.
Don’t forget that all winners of qualifiers automatically get a run. So this may lead to more horses with rating below the previous ‘bottom’ getting in. I don’t think there will be many but it is something to be aware of.
14 qualifying races means the max number of qualified horses is 56, take into account injuries, ground, handicap, alternative targets and of course the difficulties placed on getting a novice qualified and there's every chance the field is again under subscribed.
Edit - there are two qualifiers in Ireland that aren't showing on the BHA site so max 64 qualifiers....
Last edited by Istabraq; 29 January 2025, 09:30 AM.
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